Archive for November, 2021
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CWS Market Review – November 30, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 30th, 2021 at 7:46 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
Omicron Rattles Wall Street
I find it interesting that on Wall Street, a market drop of more than 10% is called a “correction.” But if you take a long-term perspective, then, properly speaking, every market drop has truly been the error while the rally has been the correction.
It’s odd to think that way, but it’s true. The S&P 500 last hit an all-time high less than two weeks ago. Thanks to fears of the Omicron strain, the stock market got shaken up on Friday. It was the worst day for the S&P 500 in nine months, and for the Dow, it was the worst day in more than a year.
It was also a calm market. Before last Friday, the S&P 500 had gone 29 days in a row without closing up or down by more than 1%. In fact, that understates how relaxed the market had been. Of those 29 days, 22 had market daily moves that were less than 0.5%. Now we’ve had three 1% days in a row.
Here’s the minute-by-minute chart for the last two weeks:
As a general rule, volatility tends to feed on itself in the markets. In other words, high volatility often produces higher volatility, while low volatility produces even lower volatility. Consider that this year, the stock market has fallen more than 1% 17 times. In eight of those times, it rebounded by more than 1% the next day.
Today, the S&P 500 lost 1.90% and the index closed at its lowest level in over a month. All 11 sectors were down. For November, the index lost 0.83%. This was the second monthly loss in the last three months. Prior to that, the S&P 500 had rattled off seven straight monthly gains.
The stock market’s drop on Friday was very reminiscent of the kinds of days we saw in March 2020. The worst-performing stocks were travel and leisure companies while many of the top performers were defensive stocks. For example, Clorox had a very good day.
The trouble with the Omicron strain is that we don’t have a lot of information yet. Whenever this happens, Wall Street is more than happy to fill in the gap with fear. On Monday, the market made back some of those gains as we heard that Omicron may not be that bad, but on Tuesday, Wall Street reverted to fear.
My guess is that we’re going to witness Wall Street wrestle with the “lockdown trade.” That means that on most days, cruise stocks will be either the best- or worst-performing stocks, and there won’t be much left over in the middle. Today was a good day for the cruise stocks. Apple and Tesla also did well. In other words, investors are willing to take on more risk. Only seven stocks in the entire S&P 500 closed higher today.
By the way, our Buy List as whole skews towards being a classic defensive portfolio. That’s not a macro prediction on my part. It’s simply how our stock-picking worked out. In plain English, when folks get scared, they flee toward our stocks.
A good example is Hershey (HSY), a Buy List favorite. Shares of Hershey fell about 1.69% on Friday. That’s bad, but it was better than the overall market’s drop of 2.27%. Today, the S&P 500 fell 1.9% while shares of Hershey only fell 0.93%. Whatever Omicron may do or not do, I doubt it will impact chocolate sales.
By the way, investors shouldn’t overlook “downside Alpha.” That’s a fancy word for not falling as much as everyone else. I’ve found that most of the long-term outperformance comes during rough markets. Everyone can look brilliant in a rally but emerging from a harsh bear market mostly unscathed is an impressive feat.
Powell Said It’s Time to Retire “Transitory”
Besides Omicron, probably the main reason for today’s selloff was hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. At a Senate hearing, Powell said that it may be appropriate to speed up the tapering of bond purchases and that inflation will “linger well into next year.”
No, duh.
Jay, look around. Just recently, General Mills said that it will increase prices next year. That means you’ll be paying more for Cheerios or Lucky Charms. Even Dollar Tree is raising prices to $1.25.
Here’s a look at gasoline prices over the last 18 months:
Until now, the Fed has often described inflation as being “transitory.” Today, Powell conceded that it’s “probably a good time to retire” that word. Still, he’s pinning most of the blame on supply/demand imbalances.
The Fed’s original plan was to pare back bond purchases until they reached zero by June. After that, the Fed would start to hike interest rates.
Now that timeline is uncertain. According to the futures market, traders are placing a 45% chance of the Fed hiking by early May. That’s up 10% from yesterday. Traders narrowly see a second hike coming by September.
The bond market is reacting as well. I like to look at the spread between the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields. The spread got down to just 91 basis points today. That’s the narrowest since January. In March, the spread was 159 basis points.
For being such a simple metric, the 2/10 Spread has an eerily good track record. Whenever it turns negative, you know bad times aren’t far behind. The last time the 2/10 turned negative was in August 2019, only a few months before Covid rocked the world.
Jack Quits Twitter
On Monday, Jack Dorsey announced that he’s stepping down as Twitter’s CEO. The stock responded by vaulting 11% higher. That’s got to sting when news of your departure causes investors to celebrate. At its peak, Jack’s leaving added $4 billion to Twitter’s market value. Ouch!
Parag Agrawal will take over as CEO. He’ll be the youngest CEO in the S&P 500. At 91, Warren Buffett is the oldest. Agrawal is a little younger than Mark Zuckerberg. The Bloomberg story contained this curious sentence, “Citing security concerns, Twitter wouldn’t disclose Agrawal’s date of birth, but confirmed he was born later in 1984 than Zuckerberg’s May 14 birthday.”
Despite Wall Street celebrating Jack Dorsey’s departure, shares of Twitter closed lower yesterday and they were down 4% today. This brings up a good point that often isn’t discussed, namely that Twitter isn’t that profitable as a business enterprise.
You’ll have to excuse me for relying on antiquated notions, such as return-on-equity, a balance sheet, or “profits,” but Twitter really doesn’t look that good.
Jack Dorsey is also the CEO of Square. I’ve found that shareholders are willing to overlook a lot, as long as the stock is going up. Just look at Elon Musk. Yes, he says silly things, but the stock has done well over the years. That’s not the case with Twitter, so that added additional pressure on Dorsey to choose one of his companies to lead.
Twitter went public seven years ago and the shares are now below where they were after the first day of trading. The IPO was priced at $26 per share. On the first day of trading, it zoomed over $50 and eventually closed at $44.90. Today, Twitter closed 96 cents below that. In seven years, Twitter has basically gone nowhere.
At the end of this year, Twitter will have brought in about $5 billion in revenue. Their gross profit will be around $3 billion while the operating profit will probably be about $300 million, give or take. That’s probably around 35 to 40 cents per share, and we still haven’t gotten down to taxes and other non-operating expenses.
Are investors willing to pay at least 100 times earnings for a company that seems to have little direction? Clearly, Agrawal has his work cut out for him.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– EddyP.S. Don’t forget to sign up for our premium newsletter.
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Morning News: November 30, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 30th, 2021 at 7:03 amEurozone Inflation Hits a Record High of 4.9%
China’s Manufacturing Rebounds With Signs Inflation Easing
Tiger Global Helps Make Credit-Card Startup Newest India Unicorn
Powell, Yellen Head to Congress as Inflation, Variant Risks Rise
FTC Asks Amazon, Walmart for Information About Supply-Chain Issues
Supply Chain Problems Have Small Retailers Gambling on Hoarding
Covid-19 Antibody Drugs Are Challenged by Omicron, Preliminary Testing Indicates
Moderna’s Concerns About Omicron Outlook Spark Market Slump
America’s Power Plants Are Low on Coal
Gas Prices Pressure Drivers’ Finances
In China, Tesla Is a Catfish, and Turns Auto Companies Into Sharks
Auto Executives Expect EVs Will Own Half of U.S., China Markets by 2030
A Secretive Robot Is Helping Investment Firm Stripes Pick Winning Bets
China’s Biggest Crypto Exchange Picks Singapore as Asia Base
How Crypto Vigilantes Are Hunting Scams in a $100 Billion Market
Twitter’s Agrawal Is Youngest CEO in S&P 500, Nudging Out Zuckerberg
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Stocks Rebound After Friday’s Drop
Eddy Elfenbein, November 29th, 2021 at 10:31 amThe stock market is making back some ground it lost after Friday’s big drop. The S&P 500 is currently up about 1% while the Dow is up just 0.34%. Many of the high-flying high-beta stocks are leading the charge. The Nasdaq Composite is up about 1.5%.
Shares of Twitter have been up as much as 11% this morning on news that Jack Dorsey will be stepping down as CEO.
It’s unclear who’s set to succeed Dorsey or the timing of a potential announcement. It’s also unknown why Dorsey would take a step back. But if he steps down, the next CEO will have to meet Twitter’s aggressive internal goals. The company said earlier this year it aims to have 315 million monetizable daily active users by the end of 2023 and to at least double its annual revenue in that year.
That has to be rough when your company adds $4 billion in market value on the news that you’re leaving.
This morning’s report on pending home sales rose by 7.5% in October. That comes after a drop in September. This can often be a leading indicator of the housing market. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of just 0.8%. It looks like this year will be the best for existing-home sales in 15 years.
This Friday is Jobs Day. Wall Street expects that the economy added 581,000 new jobs last month and that the jobless rate fell to 4.5%.
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Morning News: November 29, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 29th, 2021 at 7:05 amEconomists Game Out How Omicron Will Hurt the Global Recovery
Markets Aren’t That Spooked by Omicron
As U.K. Beckons Truck Drivers, Many in Poland Say ‘No Thanks’
Swiss Franc Rises to Six-Year High as Central Bank Stands Back
El-Erian Says Fed Should Recognize Inflation Isn’t Transitory
Cyber Monday Sales Expected to Slow as Shoppers See Fewer Deals
Rental Assistance to Be Redirected Based on Demand
Is India Banning Cryptocurrency? How Can It Do That?
Binance Reopens Dogecoin Withdrawals After Musk Spat With CEO
Crypto Firms Pay Massive Price Tags to Name Arenas as Sports Teams Weigh Risks
Apple’s Car and VR Headset Are Poised to Alter the Typical Product Rollout Strategy
Hunt for the ‘Blood Diamond of Batteries’ Impedes Green Energy Push
Nissan Unveils $18 Billion Electrification Push in Bid to Draw Level with Rivals
Uber Survived the Spying Scandal. Their Careers Didn’t
Disney’s Missing ‘Simpsons’ Episode in Hong Kong Raises Censorship Fears
‘Pension Poachers’ Are Targeting America’s Elderly Veterans
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Morning News: November 26, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 26th, 2021 at 7:21 amNew Coronavirus Variant Fears Knock 2% Off Dow Futures
Bitcoin Retreats 20% From Record High
Biden Inflation Call Echoed by Economists — But Not Companies
Goldman Economists Expect Fed Will Taper, Raise Rates Faster
Bankers Took Over the Climate Change Summit. That’s Bad For Democracy.
Carmakers Get Inventive As Global Chip Crisis Bites
China Asks Didi to Delist From U.S. On Security Fears
A 10,000% Jump Makes This the World’s Top IPO
In Europe, Trying to Find Fun and Games in Holiday Retailing
Amazon’s Black Friday Struck By Climate Activists, Strikes in Europe
Don We Now Our Menorah Tea Towels
Time, Money and Chicken Fat: A Guide to Inflation-Proof Gift-Giving
Plot of Digital Land in the Metaverse Sells for Record $2.43 Million
Canada Taps into Strategic Reserves to Deal with Massive Shortage … of Maple Syrup
The Great Huckleberry Supply Crunch
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Proclamation of Thanksgiving
Eddy Elfenbein, November 25th, 2021 at 10:40 amBy the President of the United States of America.
A Proclamation.
The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle or the ship; the axe has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom. No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility and Union.
In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.
Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the United States the Eighty-eighth.
By the President: Abraham Lincoln
William H. Seward,
Secretary of State -
Morning News: November 25, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 25th, 2021 at 7:00 amSupply-Chain Crisis Only Getting Worse With China’s 7-Week Port Quarantine
Jamie Dimon’s Apology Undercuts His Own Words on China Free Speech
Stock Funds Took in More Cash in 2021 Than Two Decades Combined
U.S. Economy Eyes Strong 2021 Finish as Labor Market Tightens, Spending Accelerates
More Fed Officials Open to Speeding Up Bond-Buying Taper, Rates Liftoff
E-Commerce Needs Real Store Locations Now More Than Ever
The Anti-Work Brigade Is Coming for Amazon on Black Friday
Why the Retail Industry Is Fighting Vaccine Mandates
World’s Biggest Ikea Opens as Part of Global Push
The Best Tech Gifts That Aren’t Gadgets
AT&T, Verizon Propose 5G Limits to Break Air-Safety Standoff
Citigroup to Split Institutional Clients Group’s Ops, Tech Units
Once a Warrior, Then a Nonprofit Leader, Now an Entrepreneur
Are You Rich Yet? Really, That’s An Absurd Question
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Lowest Jobless Claims Since 1969
Eddy Elfenbein, November 24th, 2021 at 10:52 amWith Thanksgiving tomorrow, there’s a crush of economic news today. The Jobless Claims report fell to 199,000. That’s the lowest since November 15, 1969. Last year, Jobless Claims peaked at over 20 times the current level.
The Q3 GDP growth report was revised from 2% up to 2.1%. That’s annualized and inflation-adjusted.
Durable goods orders fell 0.5% while Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 0.3%.
However, excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.5%, and excluding defense they were up 0.8%.
Nondefense new orders for capital goods, a proxy for business investment, fell 1.2% for the month. However, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories all rose.
The market is down so far this morning.
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Morning News: November 24, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 24th, 2021 at 7:01 amA Huge Arbitrage Opportunity Has Just Opened Up in Crypto
India Sows Confusion with Plan to Ban ‘Private Cryptocurrencies’
As Virus Cases Rise in Europe, an Economic Toll Returns
As Inflation Surges, Pakistan Seeks a $6 Billion I.M.F. Lifeline
The Inflation Miscalculation Complicating Biden’s Agenda
With Fed’s Powell Renominated, Focus Turns to Speed of Bond-Buying Taper
Flush With Cash, Saudi Prince Snubs Biden and Sends a Message
U.S. Marshals Other Nations, Challenges OPEC+ with Release of Oil Reserves
What Is Happening with U.S. Gasoline Prices?
He’s Steering Volkswagen, With His Eyes on Beating Tesla
Xpeng Aims To Sell Nearly As Many Electric Vehicles Overseas As In China
Dollar Tree Is Raising Prices 25 Percent to $1.25
The Pandemic Cocktail Habit Behind NYC’s Booze-Free Bottle Shop
Wall Street Grudgingly Allows Remote Work as Bankers Dig In
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: Bank Will Outlive China’s Communist Party
Everyone’s Moving to Texas. Here’s Why.
Here’s What C.E.O.s Are Thankful For
Walgreens, Walmart and CVS Pharmacies Contributed to Opioid Epidemic, Ohio Jury Finds
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CWS Market Review – November 23, 2021
Eddy Elfenbein, November 23rd, 2021 at 7:10 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
Biden Reappoints Powell
Yesterday, President Biden appointed Jay Powell to another four-year term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. The stock market liked the news, at least at first. Early on Monday, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 1% and it reached an all-time intra-day high. Alas, it was not to last. The market gave back those gains and closed lower. The market gods giveth and the market gods taketh away.
What does the Powell nomination mean for us as investors? It’s definitely a positive, and that was reflected in yesterday’s early rally. Powell has shown himself to be attentive to the mood of Wall Street without being overly deferential. Once Covid broke out, he moved quickly on interest rates. You can’t argue with the market’s performance since the low from last March.
Several weeks ago, the Powell nomination seemed to be a no-brainer. Powell is as institutional-Washington as you can get. Recently, there were growing noises of dissent, especially from liberal Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren who favored Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Interestingly, there haven’t been quite the noises of discontent considering the explosion in the Fed’s balance sheet along with the worst inflation in 30 years.
Senator Warren criticized Powell as being weak on bank regulation and for what she perceived to be his distance to a climate change agenda. Perhaps sensing the challenge, President Biden nominated Brainard as the Fed’s Vice-Chair.
From the WSJ:
The president’s decision reflected a desire by Mr. Biden to maintain stability at the central bank amid public concerns about high prices for everything from groceries to fuel, administration officials said. Mr. Biden’s advisers said they want to focus much of their attention on passage of their social spending and climate legislation and believe Mr. Powell will more easily win Senate confirmation, despite objections from progressives.
“Put directly: at this moment both of enormous potential and enormous uncertainty for our economy, we need stability and independence at the Federal Reserve. Jay has proven the independence that I value in a Fed chair,” Mr. Biden said at the White House on Monday.
I suspect that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a former Fed chair herself, pushed for Powell. I think it’s interesting that previous Fed chairs have been professional economists. Powell, instead, is a lawyer and as such, he tends to be much more direct than his predecessors. Previous Congressional appearances often sounded like a professor teaching a remedial econ class. (Actually, it kind of was.)
Alan Greenspan famously told Congress, “I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.” That’s not an issue with Powell.
For Biden, Powell Is a Safe Choice
There’s a little confusion as to how the Fed is run. Powell actually gets two nominations. One is as a member of the Federal Reserve Board. Another is as chairman of that board. The nomination to the Fed Board is a 14-year term. There are seven spots, so it means the president can add a new member every other year.
In reality, few members of the Fed board serve that long, but Fed chairs tend to stick around. In the last 70 years, there have 14 presidents but only eight Fed chairmen.
Powell was nominated by President Obama to the Federal Reserve Board in 2012 for a term that ended in 2014. He was re-nominated by Obama to that position which lasts all the way to 2028, assuming he wants to hang around that long.
Four years ago, President Trump nominated Powell to be Fed Chair. He was confirmed by the Senate 83-14. Interestingly, one of the dissenting votes came from then-Senator Kamala Harris. I doubt Powell will run into much difficulty in getting approval from the Senate, and that’s probably a reason why Biden went with him. I expect some senators will oppose Powell and cite the Fed’s record on inflation. They certainly have a point. Still, Powell has worked to make the Fed more transparent.
The Federal Reserve Board is different from the rate-setting committee which is the Federal Open Market Committee. My apologies, but this is where things get wonky. The FOMC is a 12-member committee which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, plus five of the 12 regional bank presidents. One exception is that the president of the New York Fed is always a member. The other seats rotate among the 11 other regional banks.
This may sound surprising to modern ears but the prominence of the Federal Reserve has increased dramatically over the past 40 years. Not that long ago, the Fed wasn’t that big a deal. It wasn’t in the news that much. In fact, the Fed didn’t even announce changes to interest rates. Fed watchers had to figure it out. That’s all changed for the better.
Technically, it’s possible for the Fed chair to be overruled on an interest-rate decision. It’s happened before, but it would a major story if it happened today. Now the Fed aims for consensus and most of the policy statements are bland and uninteresting. It’s not the Fed’s fault. That’s how the market likes it.
There’s been a big change in the market’s outlook for interest rates. Here’s an interesting chart from the futures market.
Two months ago, traders thought there was less than a 10% chance that the Fed would hike interest rates by June. Now they think there’s a 75%, which is probably about 24.5% too low.
Why the big change? The answer is Jay Powell. This is a good example of the Fed being transparent about its intentions. Powell can be criticized on many levels but he’s not to blame for there being a lack of political will to fight inflation.
The President today released 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. While the intentions are good, the effect is probably minimal. Fifty million barrels may sound like a lot, but the U.S. economy will go through that quickly. Some other countries are doing the same to their reserves.
Ultimately, inflation is a political problem not unlike parking in a big city. It’s allowed to grow unchecked until enough people start to complain about it. We’re not there just yet. I’ll give you an example. The inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year Treasury is now around -1%. That’s crazy low and it shows you why the stock market has been such an obvious alternative for investors.
Not only have valuations improved, but so, too, have the fundamentals for the stock market. At the beginning of this year, Wall Street had been expecting the S&P 500 to report Q4 earnings of $44.27 per share. That’s the index-adjusted number. Now expectations are up to $50.52 per share.
The stock market has been remarkably calm recently. Today was the 28th day in a row in which the S&P 500 closed up or down by less than 1%. Twenty-one of those days were moves of less than 0.5%.
Typically, volatility reflects what the stock market just did rather than being a forecast of what it will do. A rising market tends to be a calm one. A plunging market is a chaotic one. Most of the big swings in stock market history have come when the indexes were well off their highs. The S&P 500 reached an all-time closing high on Thursday and an intra-day high yesterday.
The stock market will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Due to the holiday, we’re going to get a crush of economic reports tomorrow. The jobless-claims report, which usually comes out each Thursday, will come out on Wednesday. The last report showed another post-Covid low.
The government will also update its Q3 GDP report. The initial report last month indicated growth of just 2%. That’s not that good. It will be interesting to see if it gets revised higher.
Usually, the day after the GDP report comes out, we get the reports on personal income and spending (see below). This time, they will come out the same day. So far, consumer spending has held up well despite growing dissatisfaction with the economy. If that’s not enough, we’ll also get reports on new-home sales and consumer confidence, and also the minutes to the last Fed meeting are due out.
The stock market will be open on Friday, but it will close at 1 p.m. ET. This is usually the slowest trading day of the year.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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