Archive for November, 2021

• TikTok #2
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 23rd, 2021 at 6:04 pm

  @eddyelfenbein

  ♬ original sound – Eddy Elfenbein

• Morning News: November 23, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 23rd, 2021 at 7:15 am

  Lira Losses Snowball in Turkey’s Worst Streak in 20 Years

  Biden Sticks with Powell as Fed Chair, Resisting Political Pressure

  President Biden Will Tap into U.S. Oil Reserves in Concert with Other Nations

  Every Step of the Global Supply Chain Is Going Wrong — All at Once

  ‘Black Friday’ Drags Through November Amid Tight U.S. Inventories

  Best Buy Forecasts Holiday Quarter Sales Below Estimates as Supply Issues Loom

  Samsung to Choose Taylor, Texas, for $17 Billion Chip-Making Factory

  JP Morgan Becomes World’s Most Systemic Bank

  The Latest Farm Product: Carbon Credits

  Payhawk Raises $112M to Better Compete in the Heated Corporate Card Race

  Stripe ‘Happy’ to Stay Private After Reaching $95 Billion Value

  Asia’s Richest Man Looks to Walton Family Playbook on Succession

  Amazon and Apple Handed $225 Million in Italian Antitrust Fines

  Deutsche Bank’s Rising Star Has a Rapid Change of Fortune

  Will Olympics Sponsors Face Blowback Over Peng Shuai?

  Better Get A Spending Strategy

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• My First TikTok
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2021 at 3:22 pm

  I’m giving this a try.

  @eddyelfenbein

  ♬ original sound – Eddy Elfenbein

• The Replication Crisis in Finance
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2021 at 2:28 pm

  You may have heard of the Replication Crisis in medicine. Researchers have been unable to repeat the findings that were previously found in hundreds of academic papers. Robin Wigglesworth says there’s a similar crisis unfolding in finance:

  That is the incendiary argument of Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at Duke university. He reckons that at least half of the 400 supposedly market-beating strategies identified in top financial journals over the years are bogus. Worse, he worries that many fellow academics are in denial about this.

  “It’s a huge issue,” he says. “Step one in dealing with the replication crisis in finance is to accept that there is a crisis. And right now, many of my colleagues are not there yet.”

  Harvey is not some obscure outsider or performative contrarian attempting to gain attention through needless controversy. He is the former editor of the Journal of Finance, a former president of the American Finance Association, and an adviser to investment firms like Research Affiliates and Man Group.

  I can’t say I’m surprised. I’ve always been skeptical of the large databases of market performance. The historical data is pretty iffy.

  The small-cap premium, for example, has struck me as probably bogus. Sure, it may have existed for a certain time period but doesn’t mean it’s a permanent effect.

  I don’t trust much of the earnings numbers we see today, and modern accounting methods are much better than what we had decades ago.

• Biden Picks Powell and Stocks Surge to New High
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2021 at 10:15 am

  The stock market is off to a strong start for this holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 has been as high as 4,726.60 this morning which is a record intra-day high. The current highest close came exactly two weeks ago when the index finished the day at 4,701.70. It looks like we can beat that, but there’s a lot of trading left to go.

  The big news today is that President Biden has reappointed Jerome Powell to another term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The nomination still has to be approved by the Senate. Powell was first appointed by President Trump four years ago.

  There was some speculation that Biden might appoint Fed Governor Lael Brainard. The president has appointed her as Vice-Chairman.

  “Chair Powell has provided steady leadership during an unprecedently challenging period, including the biggest economic downturn in modern history and attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve,” a White House statement said. “During that time, Lael Brainard – one of our country’s leading macroeconomists – has played a key leadership role at the Federal Reserve, working with Powell to help power our country’s robust economic recovery.

  As a technical note, there are actually two nominations for Powell. One is as a member of the Fed’s board. Those are 14-year positions. There’s a separate nomination to be Chairman of the Board, and that’s a four-year term. That means that if Biden had not reappointed Powell, he would still be a member of the board.

  Powell was first made a board member by President Obama. President Trump elevated him to Chair, and President has reappointed him Chair.

  Four years ago, the Senate approved Powell 84–13. Interestingly, one of the no votes was then-Senator Kamala Harris.

  The stock market will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the market will close at 1 p.m. That’s traditionally the lowest-volume day of the year.

  In 2009, shares of Vonage got as low as 31 cents. Today, Ericsson is buying it for $21 per share, in cash. The deal is for $6.2 billion in cash.

• Morning News: November 22, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2021 at 7:12 am

  Powell or Brainard Will Struggle to Align Hikes With Hiring Goal

  Wall Street Says Buy the Dip as Virus Fears Won’t Halt Rally

  El Salvador Plans ‘Bitcoin City,’ Powered by Crypto Bonds and Volcano

  Avalanche Crypto Tops Shiba Inu Value After Deloitte Deal

  Paytm IPO Investors Lose $900 Million in Two Days as India’s Biggest Listing Flops

  Japan Working on Release of Oil Reserves After U.S. Request

  How the U.S. Lost Ground to China in the Contest for Clean Energy

  Taxi! To the Airport — by Air, Please.

  Family Unvisited, Travel a No-Go: The Hard Costs of High Gas Prices

  U.S. Thanksgiving Turkey Costs Fatten Up After Farmers Slimmed Down Flocks

  Authentic Brands Group Shelves IPO, to Sell Stake in Deal that Values Company at $12.7 Billion

  Ericsson to Buy Vonage for $6.2 Billion, Bulking Up Cloud Presence

  Netflix Turns Its Attention to Films It Hopes Everyone Wants to See

  How Do You Make Teen Comedies Today? Buy a High School.

  Jack Dorsey’s Celebrity Network Is Helping Him Give Away Billions

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• Morning News: November 19, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 19th, 2021 at 7:02 am

  Japan Approves a $490 Billion Economic Stimulus Package as the Pandemic’s Effects Linger

  U.S. Discussing Joint Reserves Release with China, Others in Aim at OPEC

  Bitcoin Falls Almost 20% Since Record as Crypto Bulls Retreat

  Ultra-Rich Skip Estate Tax and Spark a 50% Collapse in IRS Revenue

  Buy Stocks to Prosper. Buy Bonds to Sleep at Night

  This Is Jerome Powell’s Shot at a Volcker Moment—in Reverse

  A Brainard Fed Could Finally, Openly Embrace the World

  Leased Your Car? You Could Get a Great Deal on It.

  Ford Moves to Ensure Supply of Chips and Guide Their Design

  Ford Has a D.I.Y. Plan for Computer Chips

  Thanksgiving Dinner Cost Jumps with Inflation on the Menu

  A Look at the Intimate Details Amazon Knows About Us

  Sierra Space Raises $1.4 Billion at $4.5 Billion Valuation as it Builds Spaceplane, Space Station

  India’s Fastest Start-Up to Hit Billion-Dollar Status is Already Profitable, Says Founder

  Gemini Raises $400 Million To Build A Metaverse Outside Facebook’s Walled Garden

  Is It Time to Cash Out and Sell Your House?

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• Morning News: November 18, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 18th, 2021 at 7:06 am

  Warren Buffett-Backed Paytm Crashes 27% After Milestone IPO for India

  Biden’s Gas-Price Diversion

  U.S. Asks Japan, China, Others to Consider Tapping Oil Reserves

  Drug, Feed Ingredient Shortages Hit U.S. Livestock Producers

  JPMorgan Economists Now Predict Fed to Raise Rates in September

  A Dovish Rate Hike? The Case That Loose Fed Policy Could Backfire on Jobs

  Getting Inflation Right Is a Make-or-Break Moment on Wall Street

  How Americans’ Appetite for Leather in Luxury SUVs Worsens Amazon Deforestation

  Visions of a U.S. Computer Chip Boom Have Cities Hustling

  Alibaba Shares Drop 5% as It Slashes Guidance and Earnings Plunge on China’s Slowdown

  Apple Will Sell Parts for Customers to Make Their Own Repairs

  Thiel-Backed Bank N26 to Close 500,000 Accounts in U.S. Exit

  He Helped Build Tesla. Now He’s Gunning For It.

  More Chief Executives Join the Great Resignation

  They Love Crypto. They’re Trying to Buy the Constitution.

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• Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 17th, 2021 at 11:00 am

  The stock market is lower this morning but only by a small bit. There’s not much in the way of economic reports today. The housing starts report fell to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.52 million. That’s a little bit below September, but it’s up slightly from a year ago.

  Bill McBride, who runs Calculated Risk, notes that we’re seeing the most units under construction since 1974.

  More retailers reported today. Shares of TJX (TJX) are up about 9% this morning thanks to a very strong earnings report. For its fiscal Q3, TJX made 84 cents per share which was a three-cent beat. Quarterly revenue rose 24%. When inflation creeps in, folks look for bargains.

  TJX also raised its planned buyback by $500 million to a range of $1.75 billion to $2 billion.

  Target (TGT) also beat the Street but the shares are down. The problem is Target’s gross margins. Simply put, the company is absorbing some of the recent inflation in order to protect its low prices. That’s tough to do but it could pay off in the long run.

  Tar-jay earned $3.04 per share which beat by 20 cents per share. The stock is currently down about 5%.

• Morning News: November 17, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 17th, 2021 at 6:00 am

  How BRICs Economies Have Fared Over 20 Years, and What’s Next

  Will Gasoline Prices Drop in 2022? It Depends on OPEC and U.S. Shale

  Growth, Jobs and Inflation Clash in Biden Fed Choice

  Yellen Warns Lawmakers That the U.S. Could Breach Its Debt Limit by Dec. 15

  Uneasy About the Economy, Americans Are Spending Anyway

  Walmart Raises Forecast, Says Shelves Are Stocked for Holidays

  Energy-Efficient Isn’t Enough, So Homes Go ‘Net Zero’

  Electric-Car Startup Lucid Overtakes Ford in Market Value

  U.S. to Buy Enough of Pfizer’s Covid Antiviral Pills for 10 Million People

  Qualcomm Sells an Almost Apple-Free Future

  L.A.’s Iconic Staples Center to Be Renamed as Crypto.com Arena

  The Japanese Maker of a Cult $225 Toaster Just Launched a Mini-Smartphone

  Bill Hwang Made a Huge, Secret Bank Bet Before Archegos Collapse

  Theranos Drained $96 Million From an Experienced Investor – Plus Some Blood

  Activision Blizzard Employees Demand CEO Bobby Kotick’s Resignation

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