Archive for January, 2022
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CWS Market Review – January 25, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 25th, 2022 at 7:25 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
It’s Turnaround Week on Wall Street
There seems to be a theme this week of big stock market comebacks. The market was down big during the day on Monday, and we eventually closed higher. To a lesser extent, it happened again today. We turned a mid-day loss of nearly 2.8% into an eventual loss of 1.22%.
What’s going on? Well, the stock market has obviously gotten very jittery of late. Wall Street is reacting to threats from all sides. At the top of the list is fear of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, but that’s not all. Inflation continues to be at multi-decade highs. Jobless claims are creeping higher. Plus, there’s another Federal Reserve meeting this week. The first interest rate increase in more than three years may only be a few weeks away.
All of this has unnerved traders. Yesterday, the stock market had one of its most dramatic intra-day reversals in recent market history. At one point, the S&P 500 was down 4% during the day (well, 3.99% to be precise). At 12:25 p.m. ET everything suddenly changed, and stocks started a furious rally. We managed to close higher for the day.
Here’s a remarkable stat: If it wasn’t for Monday’s late-day rally, then the S&P 500 was on pace for its worst 16-day start to a new year on record (that’s more than 90 years.)
Here’s the minute-by-minute chart of the S&P 500 for the last two weeks:
For some broader context, Ryan Detrick noted that since 1950, the market has lost 4% during the day 88 times, but yesterday was only the third time that the market closed higher. The other two times came in 2008.
The Nasdaq was even more extreme. At one point yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite was off 4.90%, and it closed higher by 0.63%. This came on top of the Nasdaq’s losing run over the past few weeks. From its all-time intra-day high to yesterday’s low, the Nasdaq Composite lost 19.16%.
Momentum has clearly shifted in favor of the bears. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than 18 months. On a closing basis, the stock market reached its high on January 3. The recent low was on Friday, January 21. Over that time, the S&P 500 fell 8.31%. That’s getting close to a 10% drop which is the traditional definition of a market correction.
Corrections aren’t that rare. There have been 32 in the last 42 years. Investors need to understand that these rough patches come along every so often. In fact, history has shown that lousy markets are very good times to buy. One year after a correction’s end, the stock market has gained an average of 25%. Of course, the hard part is that we never know exactly when the corrections will end.
There’s an old saying on Wall Street that bulls go up the stairs while bears jump out the window. That’s certainly true. Stock rallies tend to be long and slow while bear markets are sharp and fast. (Remember the extreme market we had during March 2020.) Every day seems more and more frenetic. We’ve already had six daily losses this year of more than 1%. At the same time last year, it had only happened once.
Yesterday’s initial selling was heavily concentrated among those risky, highly-volatile sectors that I’ve talked so much about. Those are precisely the stocks that bounced back so strongly. Callie Cox picked up this great stat. The 100 worst-performing Russell 3000 stocks so far this year (through Friday) rose an average of 3.8% on Monday.
Just to give you one example, yesterday shares of Shopify (SHOP) fell more than 11%. By the closing bell, the stock had gained 6.4% higher. From top to bottom, Shopify gained over 23%. That occurred over a span of roughly 90 minutes. (The market’s recent behavior seems to be mirroring the dramatic playoff football games we saw this weekend.)
On our Buy List, Trex (TREX) is having a very tough year so far after having great years in 2020 and 2021, and it also closed higher yesterday by just over 2%, but it was down again today. At its low, the S&P 500 High Beta index was down 5.09% on Monday. It closed higher by 1.08%. The S&P 500 Low Vol index closed down by 0.17%.
Here’s a daily chart of the S&P 500 High Beta Index. Notice how the daily crosses have grown longer and longer. That indicates the daily spread between the high and the low.
Today was another big comeback for the market, but not as much as yesterday was. Not long after today’s open, the S&P 500 was sitting on a loss of 2.79%. Then the bulls came out, and we finished the day with a loss of 1.22%.
The difference is that today’s market was also much broader than what we saw yesterday. By this, I mean that we didn’t see those big gaps between different sectors like growth and value. Today, the High Beta Index lost 0.64% while the Low Vol Index was down 0.82%. That’s not such a big spread, especially compared with recent days.
The major theme is that all these formerly popular stocks are getting punished. A number of the famous “meme stocks” from a year ago have been crushed in recent days. Both AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME) are down over 60% in the last few weeks. A year ago, Peloton (PTON) was going for $171 per share. Lately, it’s been as low as $23.
This is even impacting the crypto world. Bitcoin recently fell to around $33,000. That’s down nearly half since November. Although, Bitcoin moves so quickly, I wouldn’t be surprised if it made all that back in a few days.
Why is all this happening? That’s hard to say. You can never easily divine the markets’ intentions. I would say that the war talk has spooked the markets. This has also drawn more attention to concerns about valuations and what the Fed has planned.
Of course, that’s not really new information. After ignoring the Fed for so long, perhaps traders are finally realizing that the cost-free world will soon end.
Kohl’s Soared on Buyout Offer
Shares of Kohl’s (KSS), the department store, soared 36% yesterday after the company got a buyout offer of $64 per share. On Friday, Kohl’s had closed at $46.84 per share.
The offer was made by Starboard Value, an activist investor, in tandem with a consortium of other investors. Activist investors don’t merely invest in a company; they also push for big changes in the company’s strategy.
What makes the Kohl’s story interesting is that this may have started a bidding war. Sycamore Partners said it’s willing to pay $65 for Kohl’s. So far, Kohl’s is keeping quiet which is the smart thing to do.
Honestly, Kohl’s business hasn’t been doing very well. The stock has underperformed the market for nearly 20 years. The department store wasn’t doing well going into Covid and the pandemic really put the squeeze on them. The stock lost two-thirds of its value in less than one month.
Last year, Kohl’s lost $2.36 per share. This year, it’s on track to make about $7.25 per share although the Q4 earnings won’t be out until early March. By conventional metrics, that makes KSS look like a cheap stock, but I’m skeptical.
Kohl’s isn’t a stranger to activist investors. Before these offers, Macellum, an activist shop, pushed for changes and got some board seats. The relations have not been smooth. The investors said that Kohl’s spent another year “materially mismanaging the business.” It’s hard to disagree.
A major source of contention is that Kohl’s owns a ton of real estate. The activists want to see the company sell that off and use the proceeds to buy back its stock. That would probably give the share price a big boost. Cowen said that Kohl’s is worth $75 or more. Macellum thinks KSS could go for $100 per share.
It’s true that Kohl’s is going for a cheap valuation. It’s also true that there’s some value to be unlocked, but I don’t see a long-run strategy for Kohl’s. Buying a mediocre business and waiting for it to revert to some idea of “fair value” is a tough strategy. I’d much rather own a high-quality company even if I’m paying extra.
I wish Kohl’s well, but I’m avoiding this stock.
Strong Earnings from Silgan
Silgan Holdings (SLGN) led off our Q4 earnings season after the close today. The container company had a very good quarter. For Q4, Silgan made 79 cents per share. Wall Street had been expecting 73 cents per share. Three months ago, the company said that Q4 earnings would be between 69 to 79 cents per share.
For the year, Silgan made $3.40 per share. That’s up 11% from 2020. Sales were up 17.3%. Silgan had record free cash flow of $466.1 million. Best of all, the company expects another good year for 2020.
Adam Greenlee, the president and CEO, said:
“Looking forward to 2022, we expect further improvements in the supply chain and labor issues as well as a more stable resin environment. In addition, our teams are diligently working towards the successful integration of the three acquisitions completed in 2021, which are expected to provide additional significant earnings growth in 2022. Therefore, we estimate adjusted earnings per share in 2022 in the range of $3.80 to $4.00, which represents a 15 percent increase at the midpoint over record 2021 levels. Our free cash flow estimate for 2022 is estimated at approximately $350 million, as we anticipate an increase in working capital primarily related to significant metal inflation in 2022, increased capital expenditures for growth investment opportunities with core customers and higher cash taxes which will more than offset strong earnings growth.”
Wall Street had been expecting $3.73 per share for this year. For Q1, Silgan expects earnings to range between 70 cents and 80 cents per share. This means Silgan is going for about 10 times next year’s earnings. Silgan remains an excellent buy.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: January 25, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 25th, 2022 at 7:03 amBanks Push Back Against China’s Plan to Curb Foreign IPOs
What’s a ‘Crypto Winter’? Why Some Investors are Scared About a Repeat of 2018’s Doldrums
This Red-Hot Housing Market Is Betting Interest Rates Will Never Rise
OPEC, Russian Oil-Output Increases Fall Short of Promises, Stoking Prices
Oil Companies Are Whining About “Discrimination” Now What?
Baptism By Fire Awaits Today’s Rate-Hike Rookies
Strategists Predict Trouble for U.S. Stocks After Massive U-Turn
Fed’s Policy Pivot May Prove Late and Abrupt, Critics Fret
The U.S. Labor Movement Is Popular, Prominent and Also Shrinking
Why Is Silicon Valley Still Waiting for the Next Big Thing?
GE Misses Sales Expectations in Setback for Larry Culp’s Turnaround
Nvidia Quietly Prepares to Abandon $40 Billion Arm Bid
What Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos Reveal About Venture Capitalism
Neil Young Threatens to Delete Spotify Catalog Over Joe Rogan Vaccine Misinformation
Cash Aid to Poor Mothers Increases Brain Activity in Babies, Study Finds
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Huge Reversal Today
Eddy Elfenbein, January 24th, 2022 at 6:20 pmI was out of the office for much of the day, but this was a very unusual trading day on Wall Street. At 12:25 pm, the S&P 500 was down 3.99% for the day, yet the index rallied and managed to close higher by 0.28%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.63% after being down by 4.90%. At its low, the Nasdaq was down 19.16% from its all-time intra-day high.
Once again, we saw a big gap between the volatile stocks and the stable ones. At its low, the S&P 500 High Beta index was down 5.09%. It closed higher by 1.08%. The S&P 500 Low Vol index closed down by 0.17%. Bitcoin fell below $34,000.
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Morning News: January 24, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 24th, 2022 at 7:04 amWhat Happened (and Didn’t) When Davos Disappeared
Rich Countries Lure Health Workers From Low-Income Nations to Fight Shortages
Italy’s Version of Groundhog Day in Play as Mario Draghi Eyes Shift
China’s ‘Little Giants’ Are Its Latest Weapon in the U.S. Tech War
Ignore the Hype, China’s Leaders Cannot Re-Shape Economic Reality
Foreign Executives in Isolated Hong Kong Head for Exit, Sick of Zero-Covid Curbs
Fed Tries to Match Economic Risks Against Market’s Rush to Tighten
Inflation Poses Risks of Faster, Less Predictable Fed Rate Increases
A Digital Dollar Is Years Away as U.S. Fed Kicks Issue to Congress
Morgan Stanley Says ‘Winter Is Here’ for Stocks
Crypto Losses Deepen With Bitcoin Tumbling Below $34,000
U.S. Food Supply Is Under Pressure, From Plants to Store Shelves
Tesla Now Runs the Most Productive Auto Factory in America
Sony’s Videogame Strategy Challenged by Microsoft’s Deal for Activision
Sales of LVMH’s Hublot, Bulgari Watches Top Pre-Pandemic Levels
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Morning News: January 21, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 21st, 2022 at 7:02 amChina Vows ‘No Mercy’ in Battle Against Corruption, Big Tech
‘No Amount of Money’ Can Lure Bankers to Hong Kong, Recruiters Say
China Evergrande’s International Bondholders Threaten Legal Action
Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started
Fed Seen Signaling March Rate Rise and Assets Runoff Soon After
U.S. Existing-Home Sales Reached a 15-Year High of 6.1 Million Last Year
How Much Are You Willing to Pay for a Burrito?
How Big Beef Is Fueling the Amazon’s Destruction
Senate Panel Advances Antitrust Bill Aimed at Apple, Amazon, and Google
Netflix’s Modest Growth Forecast Casts Pall Over Streaming
Intel to Invest at Least $20 Billion in New Chip Factories in Ohio
How A Small Town Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Amazon
Rio Tinto Shares Slump as Serbia Pulls Plug on Its $2.4 Billion Lithium Project
Toyota Temporarily Halts Production in Japan Due to Parts Crunch from COVID-19
M&M Characters Redesigned For A “More Dynamic, Progressive World,” Mars Announces
The Most Valuable Thing I Can Teach My Kid Is How to Be Lazy
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Morning News: January 20, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 20th, 2022 at 7:05 amChina Cuts Benchmark Rates to Bolster Flagging Economy
The U.K. Is Two Months Away From a Brutal Cost-of-Living Crisis
Australia’s (Brief) Idea to Ease Supply Chains: Juvenile Forklift Drivers
Bank of Russia Seeks to Outlaw Mining and Trading of Crypto
Crypto Enthusiasm Prompts Philippine Bank to Launch Trading
Market, Omicron Risks Pose New Challenge for Fed Policy Pivot
Surging Real Yields Rattle Markets Eyeing End of Easy-Money Era
Wall Street Traders Are Placing Fresh Bets on a Post-Covid World
Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It?
How 5G Clashed With an Aviation Device Invented in the 1920s
‘It’s All Just Wild’: Tech Start-Ups Reach a New Peak of Froth
Microsoft-Activision Deal Gives Merger Speculators A New Darling
What the Metaverse Has to Do With Microsoft’s Deal for Activision
Starbucks Drops COVID Vaccine Mandate After Supreme Court Ruling
The Calculators Behind the Music-Catalog Megadeals
What California’s Most Celebrated Writer Got Wrong About Capitalism Today And The Middle Classes
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Morning News: January 19, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 19th, 2022 at 7:00 amChina’s ‘Zero-Covid’ Policy Creates Supply-Chain Woes
Oil Prices Hit Seven-Year High on Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Governments No Match for Markets in European Energy Crunch
German Yields Cross Zero Threshold as Bond Selloff Intensifies
One Year Into His Term, Biden Finds Himself Boxed In on China
Wall Street Traders Muscle Into the Middle of Crypto
How ‘Safe’ Assets Have Become Investors’ Biggest Risk
U.S. Mortgage Interest Rates Climb for 4th Straight Week
High U.S. Meat Prices: Packer Profiteering or Capacity Crunch?
AT&T and Verizon Delay 5G Service Near Some Airports
Airlines Scramble to Rejig Schedules Amid U.S. 5G Rollout Concerns
Big Tech and Foes Spar Over Bill to Curb Market Power of Dominant Internet Platforms
Activision Sexual Misconduct Fallout Prompted Microsoft to Pursue Deal
What’s All the Hype About the Metaverse?
JPMorgan Raises Salaries for Junior Bankers for Second Time
Standard General, Apollo Close In On $9 Billion Deal for Tegna
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CWS Market Review – January 18, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 18th, 2022 at 7:15 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
The Stock Market Drops to a One-Month Low
The stock market had another rough day today. The index dropped over 1.8%. The poor folks at Goldman Sachs (GS) saw their stock drop by 7%. (Don’t worry too much for them. I have a feeling they’ll be fine.)
At one point, the S&P 500 was down over 2% on the day. The index is still below its 50-day moving average which is often a bad omen.
The S&P 500 has now closed lower seven times in the last ten sessions. The S&P 500 closed lower today than where it was just before Halloween. That means the stock market has been completely flat for nearly three months. That’s actually better than some areas of the market. This Nasdaq Composite is lower than where it was in early July.
Whenever there’s a drop like today, I like to look at how different stock groupings are performing. If growth stocks drop more than value, then I know the market is concerned about valuations. Today, the growth index fell by 1.08% more than the value index. That’s interesting as it signals possible nervousness about the pace of the recent rally.
Further evidence of the market’s desire for safety can be found in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury soared all the way up to a two-year high. Of course, it seems odd writing that since we’re only talking about a yield of 1.8%. That’s far less than inflation, but it does tell us how much things have changed. Eighteen months ago, the yield on the 10-year was about 0.5%.
Small-cap stocks were especially weak today. The Russell 2000 lost over 3% today. The small-cap indexes are skewed toward domestic manufacturers. I think of the Russell 2000 as a semi-cyclical index. Indeed, we saw some weakness in financial and tech stocks today.
The three worst-performing stocks today in the S&P 500 were all banks: Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS). What kind of day was it? Put it this way: Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) all made new 52-week highs today while Zoom (ZM), Snap (SNAP) and Twitter (TWTR) all made new lows.
Microsoft Buys Activision Blizzard for $68.7 Billion
The big merger news today is that Microsoft (MSFT) is buying videogame giant Activision Blizzard (ATVI) for $95 per share. That works out to $68.7 billion.
That may sound like a lot, and it is, but it’s less than 3% of Microsoft’s overall market value. The deal will be all cash. If you’re curious, Microsoft has $130 billion in cash on hand. This will be Microsoft’s largest deal ever. Globally, three billion people play video games.
Shares of ATVI soared today. The stock closed Friday at $65.39 per share. Interestingly, ATVI jumped to $82.32, which is still well short of MSFT’s offer. Perhaps the market has some reservations about this deal. Or maybe they think it will take longer than expected.
If you were to buy ATVI today and the deal goes through, you’d make a 15% return on your investment. Of course, that’s not a sure thing and we don’t know how long it would take. Also anti-trust regulators have said they want to be tougher on mergers, especially tech mergers.
Activision Blizzard is best-known for being the folks behind Call of Duty and many other games. The stock has been extremely successful. Gaming is a massive industry. In 2020, the U.S. video game market grew to $57 billion. According to NPD Group, that’s bigger than music and movies combined. In 2008, Activision merged with Vivendi and five years later, they split off from them.
Less than a year ago, ATVI reached $104.53 per share. The stock had received some speculative attention lately because it had done so poorly. Last month, ATVI dropped down to $56.40.
Activision Blizzard is one of those companies that seems to generate terrible news for itself and it’s usually their fault. They’re facing several sexual harassment lawsuits. Worse yet, their CEO, Bobby Kotick, allegedly knew about the behavior and failed to inform the board.
Kotick took a 99.9% pay cut which dropped his annual pay from $154 million to $62,500. Apparently, it’s going to stay down until the company’s gender roles are met. We’ll see.
By the way, the $154 million was the reduced figure following criticism.
Kotick is quite a piece of work. A few years ago, he also allegedly threatened to have one of his assistants killed. Allegedly. Employees last year staged a walkout in protest of Kotick’s behavior.
Kotick is expected to step down after the deal closes. (Microsoft isn’t dumb.)
Look for Strong Earnings from Thermo Fisher
Earnings season started on Friday when a few of the big banks reported Q4 earnings. Some of these big banks have been very profitable. On Friday, Wells Fargo said it made $1.25 per share for Q4 which beat by 12 cents per share. Citigroup made $1.46 per share versus estimates of $1.38 per share.
JP Morgan made $3.33 per share while analysts had been expecting $3.01 per share. The bank had net income of $10.4 billion. BlackRock, which owns just about everything, made $10.42 per share for Q4. That beat estimates of $10.16 per share.
This morning, the disappointment came from Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street powerhouse made “only” $10.81 per share. The Street had been expecting $11.76 per share. Morgan Stanley reports tomorrow, and Netflix is on Thursday.
Earnings for our Buy List stocks are about to start soon. One stock that I’m particularly excited about is Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). The company is due to report its earnings on February 2.
For Q3, the company had an outstanding quarter. Thermo said it made $5.76 per share for Q3. That easily beat Wall Street’s estimate of $4.67 per share.
Q3 revenue increased by 9% to $9.33 billion. Of that, COVID-19 response revenue was $2.05 billion. Thermo’s adjusted operating margin was 29.8% compared with 32.9% in the third quarter of 2020.
Thermo increased its full-year revenue guidance by $1.2 billion to $37.1 billion. That’s revenue growth of 15%. The company also raised its EPS guidance by $1.30 to $23.37. That’s growth of 20% over last year.
Let’s get mathy. For the first three quarters, TMO made $18.57 per share so that works out to Q4 guidance of $4.80 per share. There’s no way they’re going to make that little. Wall Street isn’t fooled, either. The current consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of $5.23 per share. Last year, the stock gained 43% for us. I currently rate TMO a buy up to $640 per share.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: January 18, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 18th, 2022 at 7:10 amIn China, the Economic Buzzword for 2022 Is Stability
With Omicron, Global Economy Spots Chance to Push Past COVID
Texas, Arizona Have Recovered All the Jobs Lost When Covid-19 Hit
Nimble Cash Investment Needed to Reap Advantage of Fed Tightening
In Battle for Workers, the Humble 401(k) Gets Richer in 2022
BlackRock CEO Says Stakeholder Capitalism Isn’t ‘Woke’
Shipping Companies Had a $150 Billion Year. Economists Warn They’re Also Stoking Inflation
Sales of Electric Vehicles Surpass Diesel in Europe, a First
In Quest for Energy Independence, Mexico Is Buying a Texas Oil Refinery
Exxon Sets a 2050 Goal for Net Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Olympic Athletes Advised to Leave Phones at Home to Dodge Spying
Airlines Warn of ‘Catastrophic Disruptions’ in U.S. 5G Rollout
Amazon Simmers Down, Says It Won’t Block Visa Credit Cards in UK Store on Jan. 19 After All
Unilever Sees Investor Backlash Over $68B Bid for GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Unit
Goldman Sachs Profit Misses Estimates on Weak Equity Trading
Sotheby’s Unveils 555.55-Carat Black Diamond Thought to Come From Outer Space
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Morning News: January 17, 2022
Eddy Elfenbein, January 17th, 2022 at 7:02 amSupply Chain Woes Could Worsen as China Imposes New Covid Lockdowns
China Cuts Interest Rate as Growth Risks Worsen With Omicron
There’s No Way Vladimir Putin Could Freeze Europe, and No Way the U.S. Could Freeze Putin
One of the World’s Wealthiest Oil Exporters Is Becoming Unlivable
Global Bonds Under Siege as Treasuries Selloff Spreads
Treasury’s Yellen Sees ‘Much More Work’ Ahead to Narrow Racial Wealth Divide
‘Please Don’t:’ Analysts Scorn Unilever’s Takeover Ambitions
Walmart Drawing Up Plans to Enter Metaverse, Create Cryptocurrency
Target CEO Sees Fewer Store Trips as Shoppers Confront Inflation
Rolls-Royce, Bentley, BMW Sales Surge as Cheaper Brands Lag Behind
These Are the World’s Top Hedge Funds for 2021
Credit Suisse Chairman Resigns, Apologizes for Breaking Swiss Covid Rules
Ex-Banker ‘Twisted’ Whistle-Blower Role to Seek $10 Million
‘Pharma Bro’ Martin Shkreli Ordered to Repay $64 Million and Banned for Life From Drug Industry
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