The Fed’s Track Record

I often point out that the Fed doesn’t have a very good track record in predicting the economy. Here’s the trend of the Fed’s projection for inflation in 2022:

Sep 2019: 2.0%
Dec 2019: 2.0%
Jun 2020: 1.7%
Sep 2020: 1.8%
Dec 2020: 1.9%
Mar 2021: 2.0%
Jun 2021: 2.1%
Sep 2021: 2.2%
Dec 2021: 2.6%
Mar 2022: 4.3%
Jun 2022: 5.2%

(Note that the Fed prefers to use PCE instead of CPI.)

The Fed currently expects inflation of 2.2% in 2024.

Posted by on June 15th, 2022 at 2:19 pm


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