Archive for November, 2023

• Morning News: November 30, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 30th, 2023 at 7:07 am

  UN Declares 2023 Hottest Year Ever as Crucial COP28 Summit Starts

  Why No One Wants to Pay for the Green Transition

  Global and Business Leaders Face Questions at New York Times Forum

  China Investment Bank Bans Displays of Wealth

  Turkey Seeks Gulf Cash for $20 Billion Bet on Transit Trade

  Eurozone Inflation Falls Faster Than Expected

  Robinhood Opens in Britain with Low-Cost US Trading to Woo Clients

  Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally

  Goldilocks Meets Santa as Global Stocks Power to Best Month in Three Years

  CFOs See Ongoing Pain From Foreign Exchange Oscillations

  Banking Escapees Make Billions From Private Credit Boom

  Consumers Likely Pulled Back Spending in October

  Inside the Battle for OpenAI’s Soul

  Big Companies Find a Way to Identify A.I. Data They Can Trust

  AbbVie to Buy ImmunoGen for More Than $10 Billion

  Cigna-Humana Merger Is Likely to Face Antitrust Challenge

  Tata Tech Adds Billions to Market Capitalization in Indian Trading Debut

  U.A.W. Announces Drive to Organize Nonunion Plants

  Ford Lost $1.7 Billion in Profits from UAW Strike

  Pickup or Lunar Lander? Tesla’s Cybertruck Enters a Crowded Market

  Red Lobster’s Popular Endless Shrimp Deal Ate Into Its Profits

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• Morning News: November 29, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 29th, 2023 at 8:06 am

  Welcome to COP28, the U.N. Climate Conference Hosted by an Oil Giant

  Saudi Arabia to Host World Expo 2030, in Victory for Crown Prince

  House Prepares to Drop China Investment Curbs From Defense Bill

  In a Shaky Oil Market, OPEC Has Bitter Decisions to Make

  A $30 Billion Rout Shows Toll of Fed Hikes on Biden Energy Goals

  The $7 Trillion ETF Boom Gets Blamed Again for Dumb Stock Moves

  Bill Ackman Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates as Soon as First Quarter

  Corporate America Has Dodged the Damage of High Rates. For Now

  American Black Friday Sales Signal Tough Holidays for Retailers

  The Chicken Tycoons vs. the Antitrust Hawks

  KKR to Pay $2.7 Billion for the Rest of Insurer Global Atlantic

  OpenAI Director Who Helped Oust Altman Now Key Player in Startup’s Future

  U.S. Debates How Much to Sever Electric Car Industry’s Ties to China

  G.M. to Cut Spending on Cruise Self-Driving Unit

  GM Plans $10 Billion Stock Buyback in Bid to Assuage Investors

  Toyota Plans to Reduce Stake in Top Auto-Parts Supplier Denso

  Rakuten’s Mobile Misadventure: From Ambitious Plan to Millstone

  Disney’s Failing ‘Wish’ Shows Iger Also Has a Princess Problem

  After Year of ‘Fixing Things,’ Bob Iger Tells Disney Employees His Plans to Reshape the Company for the Future

  Chemours, DuPont, Corteva to Pay $110 Million in Settlement Agreement with State of Ohio

  A Master of One-Liners: Munger on Politics, Life and Crypto

  Signa Files Insolvency as Cash Crunch Fells Luxury Empire

  This 3-Year Cruise Around the World is Called Off, Leaving Passengers in the Lurch

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• CWS Market Review – November 28, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 28th, 2023 at 6:22 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  RIP: Charlie Munger

  

  As I was preparing today’s newsletter, I got the news that Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time partner, had died just a few weeks before his 100th birthday.

  I don’t have enough time to offer a tribute, but I wanted to share with you some of my favorite Mungerisms:

  “Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.”

  “People calculate too much and think too little.”

  “99% of the troubles that threaten our civilization come from too optimistic accounting.”

  “Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”

  “Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.”

  “A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments.”

  “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”

  “Necessity never made a good bargain.”

  “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

  Rest in peace, Charlie.

  A Great Month for Stocks

  This has been a very good month for stocks. Unless something major happens later this week, November will go down as one of the best months for the S&P 500 in years.

  I’m also pleased to see that our Buy List has outpaced the market on the way up. So far this month, the S&P 500 has gained 8.6% while the Buy List is up 10.6%.

  

  The reason for the rally is quite simple. Investors have been convinced that the Fed is done, or just about done, with its rate hikes. One of the oddities we’re seeing is that there’s a pronounced gap between the Fed’s tough-sounding rhetoric and the market’s expectations. Even today, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that more rate hikes are needed. I’m not so sure she’ll get her way.

  The market loves lower interest rates and that appears to be what it will get. The Fed meets again in two weeks and it’s highly unlikely that the FOMC will hike rates. Futures traders see about a one-in-three chance of a rate cut by March.

  I’ll give you an example of how much the market loves low interest rates. I ran a test. I took all the data for the S&P 500 and the three-month Treasury yield over the last 18 months.

  I then separated the data into three buckets: days when the three-month Treasury yield fell, days when it increased and days when it stayed flat. Then I looked at how the S&P 500 performed on those days.

  On days when the three-month yield increased, the S&P 500 fell at an annualized rate of 7.63%. When the yield was unchanged, so were stocks. The S&P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 0.06%. But when the three-month yield fell, the S&P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 41.4%. Falling rates are the fuel of a stock rally.

  The good news is that inflation has abated in recent months, but the Fed wants to be clear that it won’t stop hiking until inflation gets back to its target of 2%. This could be a mistake.

  I think it’s more important that the trend of inflation heads lower rather than hitting some arbitrary target. Bear in mind that the price for gasoline has fallen for 60 days in a row. At some point, the Fed will have to give in and admit victory.

  Lately, we’ve also seen a rally in long-term bonds. I’m somewhat hesitant to highlight a drop in long-term yields because it comes after a dramatic rise in yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 3.3% in April to 5% in September. It’s back down to about 4.3%.

  

  There are emerging signs that the economy is on shaky ground. The consumer was spending money feverishly this summer, but that’s faded away.

  Worst Year for Home Sales in 30 Years

  The housing market, in particular, is quite weak. Existing-home sales in the U.S. are on pace for their worst year in three decades. This is the impact of higher mortgage rates. On Monday, the government said that new-home sales fell 5.6% in October.

  That was below expectations. Wall Street had been expecting an annualized rate of 723,000 new homes sold. Instead, it was just 679,000.

  What’s happening is that so many people locked into mortgages at very low rates. That means that now they’re reluctant to take on new higher-yielding mortgages.

  The Fed has thrown a deadly right hook at inflation, and it hit the housing market square in the face. Mortgage rates peaked in October and have started to come down along with Treasury yields.

  Tomorrow, the government will revise its report on Q3 GDP growth. The initial report said that the U.S. economy grew in real annualized terms of 4.9% during the third quarter. That was the best quarter for economic growth since Q4 of 2021. Consumer spending greatly helped the economy during Q3.

  Wall Street is starting to turn its attention to Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model says that the economy will grow at a 2.1% rate in Q4.

  Broadridge Financial Hits New High

  As I mentioned before, our Buy List has been acting well lately. I wanted to share with you one of our better-performing stocks which has been Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR).

  This is actually a follow-up because I mentioned Broadridge in August 2022 in our free newsletter. At the time, the company had just reported very good results and it had been highlighted in Barron’s. This is part of what the magazine had to say:

  Broadridge has been a steady stock for rocky times. That is thanks to a model heavy on recurring-revenue businesses and exposure to long-term trends that should remain in place no matter the near-term path of the economy or interest rates. Broadridge stock’s recent rally could cap gains in the near term, but the company’s long-term positive trajectory remains intact.

  The company has a near monopoly in the business of managing and distributing investor communications for practically every public company in the U.S., plus mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and more. That includes proxies, regulatory disclosures, and other reports and filings required of all U.S. securities issuers. Those are non-discretionary communications that companies and funds need to distribute no matter what the world is doing. That segment tends to grow at the pace of overall stockholdings in the U.S., with Broadridge able to eke out higher profit margins thanks to a continuing shift from printed documents delivered by mail to digital investor communications.

  Broadridge also has a smaller but faster-growing segment focused on back-office functions for asset managers, investment banks and broker-dealers. Those include trade processing and settlement, record-keeping, and a variety of other compliance or regulatory functions. That is a software-as-a-service business that has expanded through a combination of organic growth and Broadridge buying companies with adjacent or complementary software and services.

  The only thing better than a monopoly is a near-monopoly. It gets less attention from the authorities. The important point that Barron’s covers is Broadridge’s recurring revenue. That’s a great quality for a business to have.

  I like looking at BR’s stock chart because you can tell when its earnings report comes out:

  

  Earlier this month, Broadridge reported another strong quarter. For its fiscal Q1, BR earned $1.09 per share. That’s up 30% from a year ago, and it was 12 cents higher than expectations. Total revenues increased 12% to $1.431 billion, and recurring-revenue growth was up by 8%. Last quarter, BR bought back $150 million of its shares.

  I’m glad to see that Broadridge is standing by its previous guidance. That calls for recurring-revenue growth of 6% to 9%, and EPS growth of 8% to 12%. The latter works out to a range of $7.57 to $7.85 per share. BR should have little trouble reaching that.

  In August, Broadridge raised its annual dividend by 10% to $3.20 per share. The company has now raised its dividend in all 12 years since it went public, and 11 of those increases were by double digits.

  The stock hit another 52-week high on Tuesday. We now have a 40.6% gain in Broadridge this year. Broadridge is a good example of a business that’s not well-known but has a strong, durable moat.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

• Morning News: November 28, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 28th, 2023 at 7:05 am

  China’s Property Lifeline Exposes Banks to Big Losses, Job Cuts

  The Hong Kong Judge Who Puts Fear Into China’s Deadbeat Builders

  Gold Bars and Tokyo Apartments: How Money Is Flowing Out of China

  European Fund Giant Amundi Dips Toe Back into Turkey’s Lira

  Biggest Climate Talks Ever Confront Global Chaos and Record Heat

  BlackRock Sees Bank Reforms Freeing $4 Trillion in Climate Funding

  Vietnam Relied on Environmentalists to Secure Billions. Then It Jailed Them

  A Psychedelics Boom Is Minting Environmentalists

  UBS Chair Kelleher Warns Bubble Is Forming in Private Credit

  Ex-Hedge Fund Boss Fights SEC at Supreme Court With Big Backers

  Goldman CEO Says Proposed Bank Rules Could Impact Airfares, Pensions

  In the Age of Public Salary-Range Listings, Some Jobseekers Feel Duped

  Inside U.S. Efforts to Untangle an A.I. Giant’s Ties to China

  Chinese Sales Swamp Competition in Soaring Mexican Car Market

  Musk’s Cybertruck Is Already a Production Nightmare for Tesla

  Tesla Sues Swedish Transport Agency in Dispute Over License Plates

  New Bidder Aims to Save Bankrupt Trucking Firm, if Treasury Goes Along

  Fashion Retailer Shein Files Confidentially for US IPO

  Shein Still Needs to Prove It’s a Bargain

  Advertising Is Dead. Long Live Advertising

  U.S. Whiskey Is ‘Collateral Damage’ in Trans-Atlantic Trade Fight

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• Morning News: November 27, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 27th, 2023 at 7:02 am

  Behind Tesla’s Challenges in Making the Cybertruck: Ultrahard Stainless Steel

  Global Automakers Turn to China for EV Lessons

  China’s Remote Deserts Are Hiding an Energy Revolution

  Origin Energy Bidder Doesn’t Know How Much Largest Shareholder Wants

  President Biden Plans to Skip COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai

  Now for Some Good News About Climate

  Javier Milei Needn’t ‘Dollarize’: Market Forces Have Done It for Him

  Russian Central Bank to Resume Domestic FX Market Interventions from January

  China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Shadow-Bank Meltdown

  Goldman’s Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over

  Billions Wiped Out as Stock-Safety Trade on Wall Street Misfires

  Americans Ditched Big Cities During the Pandemic. Now Many Are Regretting It

  Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math

  Retailers Have Cleaned Up Their Inventories for the Holidays

  There’s a Lot Riding on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

  The Biggest Delivery Business in the U.S. Is No Longer UPS or FedEx

  Blackstone’s Schwarzman Sees Opportunities in Europe Real Estate

  Choice Hotels Prepares to Challenge Wyndham’s Board

  Hot Healthcare Hiring Bolsters Cooling U.S. Labor Market

  Amazon Once Inspired Fear in the Health-Care Industry. No Longer

  How To Make a Weight-Loss Drug Go Viral

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• Morning News: November 24, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 24th, 2023 at 7:04 am

  A More Moderate Milei Embraces Trading Partners He Had Shunned

  Dirty Venezuelan Fuel Imports Threaten Colombian Leader’s Green Credentials

  Germany Announces Special Budget to Avert Crisis

  Turkey Nears First Bond Sale to Abu Dhabi Fund in Landmark Deal

  Mideast Wealth Funds Draw Greater US Scrutiny Over China Ties

  Ukraine’s Struggle for Arms and Attention Gives Putin an Opening

  Canada’s Real-Estate Market Stumbles as Rate Hikes Bite

  Nissan Invests $1.4 Billion to Build Two New EV Models in Britain

  Tennessee Zinc Smelter Is at the Center of U.S.-China Trade Fight

  Why Americans Can’t Buy Cheap Chinese Electric Vehicles

  Auto Dealers Find Savings by Buying Cars Off the Street

  Asset Managers Quietly Add ‘ESG’ to Portfolios of Defense Stocks

  Muddy Waters’s Latest Target Follows String of Notable Wins

  College Dropouts Who Weathered Crypto’s Crash See Promise Ahead

  Nvidia Shares Fall as It Reportedly Delays China AI Chip Designed to Comply with U.S. Export Rules

  The Pension: That Rare Retirement Benefit Gets a Fresh Look

  YOLO Consumers to Decide Winners and Losers This Holiday Season

  Black Friday Isn’t What It Used to Be

  These Retail Workers Make Your Holiday Shopping Spree Possible

  Next Year’s Holiday Gift May Be AI in Your Pocket

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• Morning News: November 23, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 23rd, 2023 at 7:08 am

  Russia’s Sanctioned Sovcombank Requests US Licence to Make UN Climate Payments

  Why Carbon Capture Is Big Oil’s Solution for Climate Change

  In Biden’s Climate Law, a Boon for Green Energy, and Wall Street

  Turkey Central Bank Hikes Rate by Double the Forecast to 40%

  Germany Financial Sector Facing Dark Clouds, Bundesbank Warns

  German Budget Mess Could Inflict Big Growth Hit in 2024, BE Says

  Dutch Giant ASML Warns Against Labor Curbs After Far-Right Win

  Mexico’s Inflation Ticks Up as Banxico Holds Key Rate Steady

  Chinese Financial Conglomerate Zhongzhi Has a $31 Billion Problem

  China Races to End Property Panic, Fill $446 Billion Gap

  Washington Quietly Scrapped a Plan to Save Homeowners Thousands of Dollars

  Virgin Money’s Profit Misses Forecasts as Cost Pressures Bite

  A $200,000 Pet-Rock NFT Shows How Crypto Is Relapsing Into FOMO

  Altman Is Back at OpenAI, But Questions Remain as to Why He Was Fired in First Place

  OpenAI Engineers Earning $800,000 a Year Turn Rare Skillset Into Leverage

  A.I. Belongs to the Capitalists Now

  Judge Says Evidence Shows Tesla and Elon Musk Knew About Flawed Autopilot System

  How the Memphis Sanitation Workers’ Strike Changed the Labor Movement

  Toy Shoppers Come Down With a Case of the Holiday Blahs

  Colt Makes $1.74 Billion Offer for Vista Outdoor, Gate-crashing Rival Deal

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• Morning News: November 22, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 22nd, 2023 at 7:05 am

  OPEC+ Talks Hit Turbulence as Saudis Agitate Over Output Levels

  Andurand Says OPEC+ May Need Deeper Cuts as US Supply Surges

  Argentina Is a Textbook Case of ‘Fiscal Dominance’

  African Bank Plans Pre-IPO for Shareholders, Eyes 2025 Listing

  ECB’s Centeno Says Inflation Expectations Remain Anchored

  US Mortgage Rates Slide Sharply, Reinvigorating Housing Demand

  Some of America’s Costliest Cities Offer Best Middle-Class Life

  It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (for the Economy)

  The Rules for Holiday Spending This Year (No. 1: Wait ‘Til December)

  American Shoppers Have Plenty of Dry Powder

  McKinsey and Its Peers Are Facing the Wildest Headwinds in Years

  The Sudden Downfall of Changpeng Zhao, the Crypto Titan Behind Binance

  Sam Altman Returns as OpenAI CEO in Chaotic Win for Microsoft

  Nvidia Fails to Satisfy Lofty Investor Expectations for AI Boom

  The Bill for Offshore Wind Power Is Rising

  Ford Resumes Work on E.V. Battery Plant in Michigan, at Reduced Scale

  Mary Barra’s $280 Billion Goal Confronts a Litany of GM Hurdles

  Why China and Boeing Still Need Each Other

  The Old-School Artillery Shell Is Becoming High Tech

  Blackstone to Buy U.K. Software Developer Civica

  Music Licensing Giant BMI Sells to Private Equity Firm

  The Strange $55 Million Saga of a Netflix Series You’ll Never See

  How Elon Musk Spent Three Years Falling Down a Red-Pilled Rabbit Hole

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• CWS Market Review – November 21, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 21st, 2023 at 6:13 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Milei Wins

  Earlier this year, I wrote about the stunning presidential primary victory of libertarian economist Javier Milei. This was a major shock, not only to the political establishment, but also to world currency markets. The Argentine Fed responded by raising interest rates 21% to 118%.

  Now Milei has been elected president and he has an opportunity to implement his agenda.

  

  The point I want to make wasn’t about the particulars of Argentinian politics but about the interplay of financial markets and government policy. This is an important aspect that’s often overlooked by investors and policy makers.

  Investors tend to see the economy as a chessboard and the politicians as those who move the pieces around. In many ways, the truth is the precise opposite. The economy calls the tune, and the politicians adjust their policies.

  James Carville famously said, “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Boy, is that right.

  Indeed, there many times when investors can serve as the veto of last resort. In the end, currency markets get a vote.

  Here’s part of what I wrote:

  I should explain that Milei isn’t exactly your typical presidential candidate. Milei isn’t merely a small-government conservative; he’s a full-throated anarcho-capitalist. Two of his dogs are named Milton and Murray, in honor of Friedman and Rothbard.

  I don’t want to give you the impression that Milei is somehow odd or unusual. For example, he wants to legalize the selling of organs and children. He also refuses to comb his hair. Additionally, he’s a tantric sex instructor. After that, things frankly start to get a little odd.

  Now he’s president. Yes, Milei is zany but that’s part of his charm. The real story is that the economy is Argentina is a disaster. Inflation is running at 138%, and the country is on the brink of its sixth recession in the last decade.

  People are frustrated and they want something done, even if it’s dramatic. In the U.S., we were alarmed about 9% inflation. Here’s a look at the inflation rate in Argentina.

  

  This means prices double in less than a year.

  One of Milei’s bolder plans is “dollarization.” He wants to ditch the Argentine peso and use the U.S. dollar. Other countries like Panama and Ecuador have tried this, but no one as big as Argentina has given it a shot.

  The Argentine peso is governed by strict capital controls. There’s the official rate which is around 350 pesos to the dollar; then there’s the real rate. It never seems to occur to policymakers that their currency can be, and is, traded outside their country. The unofficial price for the peso is about one-third the official price.

  For a land of such beauty and promise, Argentina seems to go from one self-induced crisis to the next. Forty percent of the people live in poverty. Yet it’s that frustration that’s driving Milei’s popularity. Milei said he wants to cut taxes and implement large spending cuts.

  Did I mention that he cloned his dog? Yep, he did that too.

  I’m not sure that the people of Argentina have embraced Milei’s strong views. Perhaps they have, but the truth is that things are so bad that voters are willing to give politicians outside the mainstream a hearing. Of course, we’ve had similar outcomes in our elections.

  The problem with replacing the peso with the dollar is that Argentina simply doesn’t have enough dollars. They need outside investors and lots of them. Argentina could go to the IMF, but they’re already the IMF’s largest borrower.

  Bond markets have been notoriously troublesome for some politicians. In 1981, Francois Mitterrand won a stunning Socialist victory. A lot of French money quickly found a new home in New York. Eventually, Mitterrand reversed course on his more radical policies.

  Liz Truss faced a similar crisis last year, leading her to resign after just seven weeks as U.K. Prime Minister.

  A Milei presidency could have a major impact on global commodity markets. Argentina is famous for its beef, but it’s also the world’s fastest-growing lithium producer. Milei has promised to take the axe to farm taxes. That could make Argentina’s agricultural sector more competitive. The country also has major deposits of copper and shale oil.

  For now, the markets love Milei. In yesterday’s trading, shares of Argentina-based stocks soared on U.S. markets. There are 15 Argentine stocks that trade in the U.S. Most of the companies are financial or energy stocks, with a few utilities. Shares of Telecom Argentina (TEO) were up 22% yesterday, and they gained another 10% today. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF), a large energy company, jumped 40% yesterday. Check out the recent performance of the Argentina ETF (ARGT):

  

  I’m skeptical Milei will get much of his program passed. Bureaucracies are hard to change. Still, it’s another indication that voters aren’t happy with high inflation and corruption. In the end, Milei will be able to go as far as the bond and currency markets let him.

  The Fed Says It’s Not Looking to Cut Rates

  This afternoon, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most-recent FOMC meeting (October 31 to November 1). Today’s minutes show that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. While inflation has been much better behaved, it’s still above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

  The Fed is not fully convinced that the battle against inflation has been won. That’s probably correct. During the 1970s, inflation came back again and again, worse each time. The Fed wants to avoid that.

  The Fed is saying that policy should remain “restrictive” until it’s clear that inflation is headed back to 2%.

  From today’s minutes:

  In discussing the policy outlook, participants continued to judge that it was critical that the stance of monetary policy be kept sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time.

  All participants agreed that the Committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks.

  Participants noted that further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate if incoming information indicated that progress toward the Committee’s inflation objective was insufficient.

  Translated from Fedspeak, this is simply the Fed trying to sound tough. That’s quite different from making an actual tough-minded policy decision.

  The markets continue to believe strongly that the Fed is done hiking rates. Odds of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting are currently at 5%. For March, traders see a 28% chance of a Fed cut.

  That’s interesting because at his last news conference, Jerome Powell said the Fed isn’t even talking about rate cuts. For May, the rate-cut odds rise to 59%, and by Election Day, traders expect to see three rate cuts.

  We’re now witnessing a growing gap between what the Fed is saying, and what the public believes. When in doubt, I have greater confidence in the market’s opinion.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

• Morning News: November 21, 2023
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 21st, 2023 at 7:05 am

  For Argentina, Dollarization May Work Better on YouTube Than in Reality

  South African Inflation Breakevens Tumble as Rates Seen on Hold

  Russian Agricultural Bank Files Lawsuit Against JP Morgan

  Bond Managers of $2.5 Trillion Make Case for Leaving Cash Behind

  Is the US Headed for a Recession? Look at What Richer Americans Do on Black Friday

  New ETF Tracks Developers of Obesity Drugs Amid Ozempic Hype

  The Great Disconnect: Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently

  Higher Interest Rates Are Shattering Housing Dreams Around the World

  October Home Sales Likely Fell to New 13-Year Low

  Houses Too Expensive to Buy Underpin Lofty Rents

  China Property Stocks Surge After Beijing Picks 50 Firms to Fund

  US Is Seeking More than $4 Billion From Binance to End Case

  A New Front Is Opening Up in the US-China Conflict Over Chips

  How Microsoft’s Satya Nadella Kept the ‘Best Bromance in Tech’ Alive

  OpenAI in ‘Intense Discussions’ to Quell Potential Staff Mutiny

  The Long Shadow of Steve Jobs Looms Over the Turmoil at OpenAI

  India Closer to Agreement With Tesla to Import EVs, Set Up Plant

  GM’s Driverless Taxis Need to Slow Down

  Wyndham Rebuffs Latest Takeover Attempt From Choice Hotels

  How a Billionaire Banker Is Helping Elite US Colleges Recruit New Talent

  A Descendant of Freed Slaves, Financier Pursues Family’s $900 Million Oil Claim

  Soon You May Know Exactly Where Your Diamond Was Mined

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