Archive for February, 2024

• Morning News: February 19, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 19th, 2024 at 7:05 am

  Russian Oil Refining Falls Further in Wake of Drone Attacks

  Polymetal International to Sell Russian Business for $3.69 Billion

  How War in Europe Boosts the U.S. Economy

  Ukraine’s Allies Are Gaming Out a World in Which the US Retreats

  Zambian Kwacha Turns World Beater With Help From Central Bank

  Brazil’s Economic Activity Caps 2023 With Better-Than Expected Growth

  Chinese Travelers Hit the Road but Pinch Their Pennies

  China Stocks’ Insipid Reopen Adds Pressure on Beijing to Do More

  China Central Bank Leaves Key Policy Rate Unchanged Under Shadow of Federal Reserve

  Systemic Risk Concerns Grow Among Money Managers as Real Estate Woes Cause Turmoil

  Cracks Are Emerging in Central Bank Synchronicity

  Can the Fed Increase the Rate of Interest Charged to Taylor Swift?

  Goldman Lifts S&P 500 Target With Profit Optimism to Drive Rally

  Wall Street’s Moelis Bet Big on the Middle East. Now He’s Cashing In

  America’s Oil Power Might Be Near Its Peak

  The War Over Burying Nuclear Waste in America’s Busiest Oil Field

  Nature Has Value. Could We Literally Invest in It?

  More Wall Street Firms Are Flip-Flopping on Climate. Here’s Why

  Nvidia Earnings Are Coming. It’s Time to Think About AI Chip Competition

  US to Award $1.5 Billion to GlobalFoundries in Chips Act Grant

  Plans to Expand U.S. Chip Manufacturing Are Running Into Obstacles

  EU Reportedly Set to Fine Apple 500 Million Euros Amid Antitrust Crackdown

  Anglo American Platinum Could Cut Around 3,700 Jobs in Restructuring

  China’s JD.com Versus US’s Elliott in Battle for UK’s Currys

  BYD’s Shenzhen-Listed Shares Rise on Buyback Plan, More Luxury-Model Launches

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• Morning News: February 16, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 16th, 2024 at 7:03 am

  Russia’s Central Bank Governor Nabiullina on Rates, Inflation

  Guyana Is Trying to Keep Its Oil Blessing From Becoming a Curse

  Stolen Substation Shows Scale of South Africa’s Power Crisis

  Droughts, Heatwaves Could Dent Spanish Banks’ Capital

  Wall Street’s Climate Retreat

  World’s Major Economies Fall Behind U.S.

  America’s Economy Slowed—It Probably Won’t Stumble

  Biden Adviser Says Soft Landing Helped by Public-Spending Boost

  I.R.S. Commissioner Warns Budget Cuts Would Add to Deficit

  Stocks Climb Before PPI Report in Data-Driven Week

  Coinbase Shares Surge After Bitcoin ETF Euphoria Helps Return to Profitability

  Banks Are Piling Back Into Everything From Mortgage Debt to CLOs

  Hedge Fund Investors Are Getting More Demanding About Charges

  NatWest Shares Rise After Results Beat Despite Mixed Outlook

  Swiss Re Net Profit Surged on Property-and-Casualty Strength

  Hindenburg Report Throws Swiss Fintech Temenos Into Turmoil

  Deutsche Bank Ends Prized Covid Custom: Four-Day Weekends From Home

  Ex-Goldman Analyst Jailed for 22 Months for Insider Trading

  As Home Insurance Bills Go Up, Owners’ Coverage Is Going Down

  The Antitrust Enforcers Aimed at Big Tech. Then Came the Backlash

  In Big Election Year, A.I.’s Architects Move Against Its Misuse

  Amazon Argues Labor Board Is Unconstitutional

  Chinese EV Maker BYD Exploring Mexico Factory as Entry to U.S. Market

  How Paramount Became a Cautionary Tale of the Streaming Wars

  Nike to Cut 2% of Workforce as Sportswear Giant Seeks Savings

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• Morning News: February 15, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 15th, 2024 at 7:03 am

  Japan Loses Its Spot as World’s Third-Largest Economy as It Slips Into Recession

  UK in Recession: Toxic or Technicality?

  What a Viral Post on Giraffes Says About China’s Fed-Up Investors

  ECB Policymakers Push Back on Hasty Rate Cuts Even as Inflation Falls

  ECB’s Lagarde Hopes to Join Economists’ ‘Tribe’ She Criticised

  Tech-Led U.S. ‘Exceptionalism’ Underlined

  Dozens of Banks Rapidly Piled Up Commercial Property Loans

  Temenos Sinks Most in 12 Years as Hindenburg Reveals Short

  Feud Erupts at $14 Billion Credit Manager Over Lucrative Stake

  Michael Burry Adds to China Big Tech Wager as Stock Rout Deepens

  Biden Faces More Pressure From Environmentalists to Block Steel Merger

  Tata Group Considering Spinoff of Battery Business Agratas

  Volkswagen Eyes March Delivery for Cars Delayed at U.S. Ports

  US Cancels Multibillion-Dollar Classified Military Satellite Program

  Airbus Pulls Further Ahead of Boeing in Global Plane Rivalry

  SpaceX Is Now Incorporated in Texas, Elon Musk Says

  Three Lessons From a Surprisingly Resilient Job Market

  Layoffs in 2024: A List of Companies Cutting Jobs This Year

  Unpredictable Power Surges Threaten US Grid — And Your Home

  The Year Chatbots Were Tamed

  Have Uber and Lyft Finally Found a Way to Make Ride-Sharing Profitable?

  WaWa Billionaires Bet on Taking the Convenience Chain South

  No Big Consumer Price Declines Are in Sight

  Kraft Mac and Cheese Sales Take a Hit After Cuts to Food Stamps

  Now Hibernating: Chocolate Chip Ice Cream

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• Morning News: February 14, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 14th, 2024 at 7:02 am

  This Arctic Circle Town Expected a Green Energy Boom. Then Came Bidenomics

  Why US Economy is Powering Ahead of Europe’s

  Powell, Biden Get No Love From Inflation Report

  ‘No Landing’ Scenarios Swirl as Markets Recoil

  The Errors Tour: How the Pros Bungled the End of Zero Interest Rates

  The Most Costly Investment Mistake You Can Make Is Easy to Avoid

  US Banks, Private Equity Firms Compete to Finance Debt-Backed Deals

  Ratings Firms Quizzed Banks After NYCB, Fueling Worries

  ABN AMRO Shares Gain After Capital Update, 4Q Beat

  The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here

  In Southwest Florida, High Home Insurance Rates Are Driving Away Would-Be Buyers

  US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs to a Two-Month High of 6.87%

  Technology Is Forcing Closer Collaboration Between CIOs, CFOs

  Can America Turn a Productivity Boomlet Into a Boom?

  Eurozone Industrial Production Unexpectedly Expands Amid Signs Recovery for Sector

  Capgemini Hikes Dividend After Boost in Profit

  Thyssenkrupp Shares Dive 10% After Profit, Sales Guidance Cuts

  Shell Lowers LNG Growth View as Demand Set to Peak in 2040s

  Elon Musk’s Big Tesla Factory in Mexico Taps Chinese Suppliers, Stoking DC Fears

  Uber Unveils $7 Billion Buyback Plan in First for Company

  A ‘Clerical Error’ in Lyft Outlook Triggered 67% Stock Jump

  Free Yoga and Meditation at Work Don’t Seem to Benefit Workers, Research Finds. But Better Pay Might

  Grover Is Now a Reporter. Journalists Aren’t Optimistic

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• CWS Market Review – February 13, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 13th, 2024 at 7:16 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Inflation Is Still With Us

  Maybe inflation is more stubborn than we thought. On Tuesday, the government said that consumer inflation rose by 0.3% last month. That was 0.1% higher than expected.

  Even though the CPI report was only slightly higher than expectations, it upset the consensus that inflation has been licked. Prior to the report, it looked as if the 12-month rate of inflation was about to fall below 3%. That hadn’t happened in nearly two years.

  Well, it still hasn’t happened. Over the last year, inflation is now running at 3.1%. That’s down from 3.4% which was the 12-month rate ending in December. Inflation is still running well above the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%.

  Today’s CPI report is a perfect extension of Jerome Powell’s recent comments that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates and that the central bank wants to see more benign inflation data. Today, we didn’t get it.

  

  The stock market was less than pleased. That makes sense if interest rates stay higher for longer. The S&P 500 dropped 1.37% today, and the index is now back below 5,000. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell more than 4%.

  We should also bear in mind what a strong stock market this has been. The S&P 500 has risen 14 times in the last 15 weeks (see above). Since late October, today was the index’s third daily loss of more than 1%.

  What’s driving the stubborn inflation numbers? That’s not hard to find. Last month, shelter prices increased by 0.6%, and shelter costs make up a sizeable portion of the CPI. Shelter costs accounted for two-thirds of the entire increase in inflation. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up by 6%.

  Let’s break down the numbers. The core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% last month. That was also 0.1% higher than expectations. Over the last year, core inflation is running at 3.9%.

  “Food prices moved higher as well, up 0.4% on the month. Energy helped offset some of the increase, down 0.9% due largely to a 3.3% slide in gasoline prices.”

  Used vehicle prices declined 3.4%, apparel costs fell 0.7% and medical commodities declined 0.6%. Electricity costs rose 1.2% and airline fares increased 1.4%. At the grocery store, ham prices fell 3.1% and eggs jumped 3.4%.

  Here’s a look at the seasonally-adjusted monthly core rate of inflation.

  

  Notice how the right-most bar appears to break the downward trend. That could be a small outlier or it may show that inflation is pushing back.

  Last Friday, the government revised its seasonally adjusted data. Normally, these revisions are the territory of serious data nerds, but last year it actually made news. That’s because the revisions showed that inflation wasn’t coming down as quickly as previously believed. This time, however, the data was largely unchanged.

  Don’t Expect the Fed to Cut Anytime Soon

  One favorable note is that wages are still rising even after being adjusted for inflation. Last month, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. Over the last year, real earnings are up by 1.4%.

  The problem, however, is that wages are measured in per-hour, and number of hours worked has declined. In other words, employers haven’t stopped hiring, but they are cutting back on the number of hours. Real weekly earnings have declined by 0.3%.

  Today’s CPI had a major impact on the outlook for the economy and for stocks. It now looks like a March rate cut from the Federal Reserve is completely off the table. A rate cut in May be doubtful as well.

  One month ago, the odds for a rate cut at the March meeting stood at 77%. Now it’s at 8%. The odds of a rate cut in May are at 35%. Interestingly, traders are merely changing their timetable for rate cuts but not for their degree. One year from today, futures traders see interest rates a full 1% lower than they are now.

  Tuesday was an interesting day on the markets. For one, the S&P 500 had one of its worst days in months, but it was also interesting to see how the pain was spread. For example, the Utilities and REITs were the two worst-performing sectors today. That makes sense if interest rates are to remain high.

  Many defensive stocks did well today, and this is a good reminder that having a large dividend doesn’t necessarily make a stock defensive. From our Buy List, shares of Hershey (HSY) and Cencora (COR) both closed higher today. If the economy suffers, those two businesses will likely hold up well.

  On days like today, I like to watch the relative performance of High Beta stocks compared with Low Volatility Stocks. This is a quick and easy way to see how the stock market is reacting to risk. Today, the market didn’t like risk at all. The S&P 500 High Beta Index fell 2.96% while the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index fell only 0.79%.

  Many hard assets, like gold, did well today. Oil also had a good day. These are classic “inflation trades.”

  One stock that’s received a lot of attention recently is Arm Holdings (ARM), a British semiconductor stock. SoftBank bought Arm in 2016. A few years later, Nvidia tried to buy Arm but the deal fell through. Arm eventually went public five months ago at $51 per share, but SoftBank still owns 90% of the shares. It’s basically a publicly-traded subsidiary.

  In Arm’s first day of trading, the stock got to $61 per share, but it was trading below its IPO price a few days later. Then things got interesting. The company reported very good earnings and gave optimistic guidance.

  One week ago, Arm closed at $72.98 per share. It then jumped 5.5% on Wednesday followed by a blistering 48% increase on Thursday. The stock rallied another 29% on Monday. All told, the stock doubled in four trading days. Arm is actually worth more than SoftBank, if you can imagine that.

  There are also rumors that Arm is the victim (or beneficiary) of a short squeeze. This is when many investors bet against a stock, but it goes up anyway. At some point, those shorts are forced to close out their positions which entails buying more stock. In turn, that causes the price to go even higher, and more shorts are squeezed.

  The prospects of higher interest rates aren’t good for such volatile stocks. Shares of ARM fell 19.5% today.

  Stock Focus: Casey’s General Stores

  I have to confess that I was not familiar with Casey’s General Stores (CASY) until recently. I was told about it by some friends in the Midwest where Casey is very popular. It’s basically a gas station masquerading as a pizza shop. Or vice versa. It really doesn’t matter.

  The idea is simple. If you drive a car, you’ll need gas. If you’re going to go to a gas station, you might as well choose the place that has pizza as well.

  Casey’s is based in Iowa and the stores are mostly in Iowa, Missouri and downstate Illinois. The company also has an impressive presence in the other Midwestern and Plains states. There are now over 2,500 locations in 16 states. Casey’s prefers to locate in small towns where there’s less competition. There isn’t a Casey’s within several hundred miles of Wall Street.

  The stock has been a huge winner over the years. Since 1991, Casey has returned more than 300-fold. Check out this chart:

  

  The S&P 500 Total Return Index (in blue) nearly looks like a flat line when compared with Casey.

  The company currently has a market value of $10 billion. It’s a member of the S&P Mid-Cap 400. Last year, it did $15 billion in sales.

  In November, Casey reported very good fiscal-Q2 earnings. For the three months ending on October 31, Casey made $4.24 per share which beat expectations by 44 cents per share.

  The fiscal Q3 earnings report should be out in early March. Wall Street currently expects earnings of $2.10 per share.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

• Morning News: February 13, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 13th, 2024 at 7:02 am

  Farmers’ Revolt Threatens Election Year Upsets Around the World

  Greece Offers Cheaper Power to Farmers to Avert Athens Protest

  OPEC Sticks to Oil-Demand Growth View, Lifts Economic Forecast

  Russia Warns the West: We Will Be Very Tough If You ‘Steal’ Our Assets

  Buy Now and Pay Later Schemes Gain Traction Among Thrifty Germans

  Crunch Time Nears for FX Traders Grappling With Faster Trading

  Japan’s Nikkei Hits 34-Year High

  RBA’s Kohler Sees Substantial Uncertainty Around Inflation Forecasts

  US CPI Data to Show Services as Key Driver of Disinflation

  What a Split in Consumer Confidence Means for Biden

  Former Hedge Fund Star Says This Is What Will Trigger the Next Bear Market

  Macquarie Banker Who Earned More Than Jamie Dimon Steps Down

  A Texas Oil Driller Banks a $26 Billion Deal, With Regrets

  America’s ESG Hiring Boom Is Starting to Cool

  U.K. Labor Market Remains Tight as Unemployment Unexpectedly Falls

  Why Work Is So Miserable in America

  Adobe’s Very Cautious Gambit to Inject AI Into Everything

  TUI Revenue Soars to Record High on Surging Customer Demand

  Office Towers Reshaped US Skylines. Now Construction Cranes Are Vanishing

  Commercial-Property Loans Coming Due in US Jump to $929 Billion

  Student Housing Has a New Mantra: Bigger Is Better

  Coca-Cola Revenue Tops Estimates on Firm Demand, Higher Prices

  Burger King Owner’s Fourth-Quarter Sales Outpace Expectations

  Temu Spent Millions on Six Super Bowl Ads as It Tries to Win Back US Shoppers

  Super Bowl Viewership Rose to 123.4 Million, a Record High

  Leaving Las Vegas to High Rollers, Some 49ers Fans Chose Reno

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• Morning News: February 12, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 12th, 2024 at 7:02 am

  Ship in Red Sea Signals All-Muslim Crew to Avoid Houthi Attack

  Oil Slips After Rally Last Week on Middle East, Tight Supply

  In Trump-Biden Rematch, the Only Sure Loser Is China

  Economists Haven’t Been This Critical of a Tight Fed in 13 Years

  Private Equity Returns Plunge to Global Financial Crisis Levels

  New Hedge Funds Struggle While Established Players Raise Fees to Record Highs, Goldman Says

  Some Hedge Funds Keep Over Half of Their Profits Through Customer Fees

  Bitcoin’s Bounce Doesn’t Settle the Biggest Worries About Crypto

  Real Estate Pain for US Regional Banks Is Piling Up, Say Investors

  Citi Hit By New Fed Rebuke, Setbacks on Consent Orders

  He Grew Up in the Shadow of the ‘Wolf of Wall Street.’ Then He Got Into Debt Settlement

  German Commercial Property Prices Post Biggest-Ever Drop, Data Shows

  Diamondback to Buy Endeavor for $26 Billion in Oil Megadeal

  Galp Expects Lower Earnings This Year

  How China Built BYD, Its Tesla Killer

  Can the U.S. Break China’s Grip on Solar?

  A Crowd Set Fire to a Waymo Taxi in San Francisco, as Tensions About Driverless Tech Grow

  What Happens When TikTok Is Your Marketing Department

  Elon Musk Isn’t the Only Billionaire Fighting Delaware

  EQT Consortium Launches $1.64 Billion Bid for French Digital Music Company Believe

  What I Got Wrong About Loyalty at Work

  US Employers Brace for About 16 Million Super Bowl Sick Days

  Gyms Face Tough Year as Key January Growth Screeches to a Halt

  Hate Valentine’s Day? There’s a Market for You, Too

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• Morning News: February 9, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 9th, 2024 at 7:02 am

  Barclays to Adopt Fresh Curbs on Oil and Gas Financing

  The Oil Was From Iran. The Insurance Was From New York

  China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the World

  ECB Warns Banks to Grasp Real Estate Risks or Face Capital Hits

  Japanese Stocks Cross New Milestone as Record High Comes Into View

  Hedge-Fund Short Sellers Revel in Hidden Cash Perk Like 2007

  Barclays Gives Dozens of Bankers Nothing in Grim Bonus Round

  How Empty Office Space Became the New Bogeyman on Wall Street

  Arm’s Post-Earnings Pop Leaves Stock Trading at Over 100% Premium to Nvidia

  Hyundai Picks JPMorgan, Citi to Accelerate $3 Billion India IPO

  40% of Lawyers Are Women. 7% Are Black. America’s Workforce in Charts

  Some Colleges Are Pivoting as FAFSA Delays Drag On

  It’s Easy to Enter the Asian Market During Lunar New Year. It’s Hard to Get it Right

  Chocolate: Cocoa Price Hits Record High as El Niño Hurts Crops

  PepsiCo Posts an Earnings Beat. Why the Stock Is Falling

  Novo Nordisk Has a Weight-Loss Pill But Can’t Make It Yet

  Mexican Retailer BBB Tops IPO Goal to Raise $589 Million

  NFL Succession Crisis Forces Teams to Let Private Equity In

  Super Bowl Broadcast Is a Crossroads for CBS Sports

  ESPN’s Pat McAfee Is the Edgy-ish, Brand-Safe Ambassador the NFL Wants

  The Goal for Super Bowl Ads This Year: Don’t Offend Anyone

  It’s Time to Talk About Those Taylor Swift Super Bowl Bets

  Shares of Assassin’s Creed Maker Ubisoft Surge After Confirming Guidance

  Hermes Positive on 2024 After Sales Growth

  Too Hot to Cuddle? Build-A-Bear’s Adult Line Leaves Some Blushing

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• Morning News: February 8, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 8th, 2024 at 7:06 am

  Two Cases Aim to Cut Off China and Iran From U.S. Technology

  A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China

  China Deflation Alarms Raised by Falling Prices for Food and Cars

  For First Time in 20 Years, U.S. Buys More From Mexico Than China

  The Confusingly Strong Economy Told in Three Stories

  Risk of Big US Inflation Revision Puts Policymakers, Investors on Edge

  Einhorn Says Markets ‘Fundamentally Broken’ By Passive, Quant Investing

  The Real Estate Crisis Looming Over Banks

  Real Estate Turmoil Leaves German Banks Reliant on Covered Bonds

  Big Dreams Come Back to Bite New York Community Bank

  NYCB in Talks to Offload Mortgage Risk, Exploring Loan Sales

  SoftBank Returns to Health as Silicon Valley and Chip Investments Prosper

  McKinsey Places 3,000 Staffers on Review

  Maersk Shares Sink Back to Reality

  After Its $20 Billion Windfall Evaporated, a Start-Up Picks Up the Pieces

  OpenAI’s Secret Weapon Is Sam Altman’s 33-Year-Old Lieutenant

  Microsoft Partners with India’s Sarvam AI for Voice-Based GenAI Tools

  How Jack Dorsey’s Plan to Get Elon Musk to Save Twitter Went South

  Ozempic Maker Novo Gets Calls From ‘Scared’ Food CEOs

  Vision Pro Review: Apple’s First Headset Lacks Polish and Purpose

  Strong Earnings, and Taylor Swift, Add to Disney’s Defenses

  Disney to Invest $1.5 Billion in Fortnite Maker Epic Games

  Small Businesses Must Now Report Ownership Information to the Government. But Many Don’t Know About It

  Construction Industry Grapples With Its Top Killer: Drug Overdose

  Super Bowl Ads: More Star Power, More Candy and Other Trends in Five Charts

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• Morning News: February 7, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 7th, 2024 at 7:06 am

  China Replaces Top Markets Regulator as Xi Tries to End Rout

  A China-U.S. Decoupling? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

  A Stock Bailout Won’t Solve China’s Troubles

  How Russia Benefits From Libya’s $5 Billion Fuel-Smuggling Trade

  ECB Must Be Patient With Rate Cuts, Schnabel Tells FT

  Bank of Canada Faces Limits on Addressing Housing Affordability, Macklem Says

  NYCB Is Cut to Junk by Moody’s

  Joe Lewis’ $7.6 Billion Global Empire Weathers His Biggest Test

  Why Most Millionaires Want a Wealth Tax: “There’s a Certain Alarmism Among the Wealthy About Trump”

  Why Americans Are So Down on a Strong Economy

  Adam Neumann Crashes Into WeWork’s High-Wire Revival Act

  Snap Doesn’t Get Its Meta-Moment

  Snap Shares Plummet After First-Quarter Guidance Disappoints

  Uber Posts First Annual Profit Since Its IPO

  How Ford’s F-150 Lightning, Once in Hot Demand, Lost Its Luster

  EVs Won Over Early Adopters, But Mainstream Buyers Aren’t Along For The Ride Yet

  Tesla Sold Just One Electric Car in South Korea Last Month as Some Korean Consumers Worry About Vehicles Made in China

  Alibaba Boosts Stock Buybacks as Profit Slumps

  CVS Health Cuts 2024 Guidance, Citing ‘Potential Implications’ of Higher Medical Costs

  Hospital CIOs Weigh 5G as Digitized Medicine Pushes Wi-Fi to Its Limits

  Vestas Beats Profit, Revenue Views After Record Order Intake

  Target Weighs Paid Membership Program Similar to Amazon Prime

  Yum Brands Disappoints as KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut Fall Short of Same-Store Sales Expectations

  Brazil Mogul Wants to Sell the World’s Best ESG Chocolate

  ESPN, Fox and Warner Bros. Join for Sports Streaming Service

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