Archive for April, 2024

• Morning News: April 8, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 8th, 2024 at 5:53 am

  Japan Breakeven Inflation Matches Record High Amid Weak Yen

  China Maintains Yuan Defense After Currency Nears Red Line

  How India Can Take China’s Growth Crown

  Yellen Delivers Sharp Message to China Leaders With a Smile

  Euro-Zone Companies Expect Wage Increases to Moderate, ECB Says

  Euro Zone Investor Morale Hits Two-Year High in April

  Turkey Meets Four-Day Work Week With Aksa’s Landmark Decision

  The Odds of $100 Oil Are Rising as Supply Shocks Convulse the Market

  Zurich Insurance to Halt Coverage of New Fossil-Fuel Exposures

  The LSE Losing Giants Like Shell Is a Very Real Threat

  Eclipse to Cut US Solar by 30 Gigawatts as Moon Shades Panels

  Philippines Central Bank Stands Pat as Inflation Worries Bubble Back Up

  Doubts Creep In About a Fed Rate Cut This Year

  Traders Favor Two Fed Cuts in 2024 as Treasury Yields Near 4.5%

  UBS on the Brink of Switzerland’s ‘Too Big to Fail’ Reckoning

  UBS JV to Acquire Credit Suisse Japan Wealth Management Business

  Tesla Set to Recover Top Spot in Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund

  Tesla Is Unveiling a Robotaxi. This Is What It’s Worth

  Is Corporate America in Denial About Trump?

  Steelworkers Push Back Against $14 Billion Deal for U.S. Steel as Vote Looms

  TSMC Gets $11.6 Billion in US Grants, Loans for Three Chip Fabs

  Kimberly-Clark to Sell PPE Business to Ansell for $640 Million

  Jean-Paul Gaultier Owner Puig Aims to Raise $1.35 Billion in Spain IPO

  David Ellison Closes In on a Hollywood Prize: Paramount Global

  What Chinese Outrage Over ‘3 Body Problem’ Says About China

  Everyone Is Rich, No One Is Happy. The Pro Golf Drama Is Back

  Can Minor League Baseball Survive Its Real Estate Problems?

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• Morning News: April 5, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 5th, 2024 at 7:03 am

  Giving Up China Is Hard, Even for Argentina’s Anarcho-Capitalist

  Yellen Chides China Over ‘Coercive’ Moves Against US Firms

  China’s Young People Are Giving Up on Saving for Retirement

  ‘Reglobalization’ to the Rescue?

  Rising Oil Prices Reignite Inflation Fears

  Copper Miners Glimpse the Future They’ve Long Seen Coming

  Gold Bulls Eye More Record Highs Despite Lightning Gains

  Ireland’s Sovereign Investment Fund to Divest from Six Israeli Firms

  The Sheikh Who Dominates One of the World’s Hottest Stock Markets

  The Market May Have Finally Hit a Real Record, But It Could Be a Problem

  US Jobs Report Is Set to Show a Slower Pace of Hiring, BE Says

  Accounting Firms Rethink Their Ownership Structure

  Taiwan Earthquake Raises Stakes for Solution to Chip Dominance

  Foxconn Expects Second-Quarter Growth After Higher March Revenue

  What Happened to Ships Bound for Baltimore When the Bridge Fell

  Who Will Pay for the Baltimore Bridge Collapse?

  Want to Invest in SpaceX or Stripe? There’s a Fund for That

  AstraZeneca Says Key Lung Cancer Drug Improved Survival

  J&J to Buy Shockwave for $13 Billion in Medical Device Play

  Tesla Offers Steep Discounts on SUVs Piling Up in Inventory

  Ford Slows Its Push Into Electric Vehicles

  Tweens Obsessed With Skin Care Drive Brands to Say: Don’t Buy Our Stuff

  Apparel Retailer Uniqlo Expands in Texas and California in New Store Push

  Eclipse’s Path Is Also Leaving a Trail of High Hotel Prices

  Four Seasons’ New Yacht Cruises Come With Record-High Price Tags

  Standby Cruising: A New Option for Bargain Seekers

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• Morning News: April 4, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 4th, 2024 at 7:01 am

  France Pushes EU for Measures to Re-Balance Trade With China

  Europe’s Spy Capital Weighs Crackdown on Intelligence Industry

  Why Americans Are Concerned About the Budget Deficit — Again

  The Fed Is Wrong About How Low Interest Rates Will Go

  Immigration Helps US Jobs Grow Faster Than Powell’s Speed Limit

  Winners of 2023 Bank Crisis Are Finding the New Spotlight Harsh

  Tiger Woods’ Putter Choice Has Created an Asset Class

  The Case Against Crowdfunding in the Work Chat

  Goodbye Chairman, Hello Chair. The Gendered Title Is Fading Away

  How Far $100 Goes at the Grocery Store After Five Years of Food Inflation

  How to Revive a Burned Forest? Rebuild the Tree Supply Chain

  Did One Guy Just Stop a Huge Cyberattack?

  Fixing Boeing’s Broken Culture Starts With a New Plane

  Airlines Desperate for Planes Are Paying Up for Older Models

  Airbus’s Stratospheric Drone Business Is Open to IPO, Aalto HAPS Chief Says

  NASA Picks 3 Companies to Help Astronauts Drive Around the Moon

  Apple Explores Home Robotics as Potential ‘Next Big Thing’ After Car Fizzles

  How Hertz’s Bet on Teslas Went Horribly Sideways

  Few Stations and $200 to Fill Up: Life on California’s ‘Hydrogen Highway’

  Amazon Sellers Plagued by Surge in Scam Returns

  Disney CEO’s Headaches Abound Even After Decisive Proxy War Win

  Nelson Peltz’s Disney Consolation Prize: A $300 Million Gain

  A.L.S. Drug Relyvrio Will Be Taken Off the Market, Its Maker Says

  Have the Brands Gone Too Far? Boston Marathoners Think So.

  Brands Paid for Ads on Forbes.com. Some Ran on a Copycat Site Instead

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• Morning News: April 3, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 3rd, 2024 at 7:03 am

  China’s Service Economy Expands Further, Adding to Signs of Recovery

  Milei Races Against Time to Ease Pain Unleashed by Shock Therapy

  South Africa Tax Agency to Target ‘Professional Enablers’ of Organized Crime

  Inflation Cools in Eurozone, Nearing Central Bank’s Target

  Bank of England sets out conditions for ‘digital sandbox’

  Canada’s RBC Struggles to Go Green While Financing Oil

  Fed Blocks Tough Global Climate-Risk Rules for Wall Street Banks

  Exxon’s $60 Billion Fight With Chevron Will Reshape Big Oil

  LNG Demand Shift to Developing Nations Is Transforming the Market

  US, EU Are Set to Miss a Critical Minerals Agreement This Week

  Pimco Boosts Bond Bets That Fed Will Cut Less Than Global Peers

  Chase Bank to Let Advertisers Target Customers Based on Spending Data

  I’m an Economist. Don’t Worry. Be Happy.

  Biden and Corporate America? It’s ‘Complicated.’

  The Jobs Numbers Aren’t Adding Up. Immigration Helps Explain Why

  10,000 Migrant Crossings a Day Upend the US Presidential Election

  Donald Trump’s Lenders of Last Resort: Subprime Auto King and Online Bank

  The World’s Richest Person 2024

  AI Enthusiasm Hides Little VC Investor Excitement for US Startups

  Alibaba Ramps Up Share Buybacks

  Archer Sees 2025 Air-Taxi Debut, Setting Up Rivalry With Joby

  Tesla Shares Tumble Toward Make-or-Break Level in Latest Wipeout

  What Tesla’s Troubles Signal for the E.V. Revolution

  Amazon to Remove ‘Just Walk Out’ Checkout Technology at U.S. Grocery Stores

  Switching From iPhone to Android Is Easy. It’s the Aftermath That Stings

  Disney Moving Closer to Win Over Trian With Vanguard Backing

  How Bluey Became a $2 Billion Smash Hit—With an Uncertain Future

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• CWS Market Review – April 2, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 2nd, 2024 at 6:16 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Over the weekend, I posted what I thought was a harmless joke on Twitter (or X, or whatever we’re supposed to call it these days):

  A great way to make passive income is to take $3 million and buy an 8% Treasury bond.

  You'll make $20,000 a month just by doing nothing.

  — Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 30, 2024

  Most people who saw my tweet took it as an obvious joke. At last count, the tweet had over 10,000 “likes.” Indeed, it’s hard to parody some of the financial advice you see on TikTok (check out the brilliant @TikTokInvestors for a sample).

  However, not everyone saw my tweet as humor. Of course, U.S. Treasuries yield nowhere close to 8%, and most people don’t have a handy three million dollars lying around. This is a reminder of Poe’s Law that any sarcasm, no matter how absurd, will be taken seriously by someone, and those someones were angry at me. Very angry.

  You may wonder: how could our meek, humble, dutiful editor ever cause anyone any distress? Alas, it can happen.

  My tweet even got a famous Community Note attached to it. They literally fact-checked a joke.

  If I were the pedantic type, I’d point out that the Community Note is incorrect because a two-month treasury is a bill, not a bond. Happily, I’m not, so I won’t bother to mention it.

  How to Invest $100,000

  I’ve always believed that one should try to turn an unpleasant experience unto something positive. Therefore, in today’s issue, I want to show you how you can safely build an income-producing stock portfolio. Unfortunately, it won’t yield 8%, but it can do a good job.

  Let’s start with these ten blue chip stocks. Most have long histories of increasing their dividends, and several of them also have above-market dividend yields.

  AFLAC (AFL)
  Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
  Federal Realty (FRT)
  Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
  Microsoft (MSFT)
  Middlesex Water (MSEX)
  Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
  Sysco (SYY)
  Target (TGT)

  The only exception is Microsoft. I added the tech giant for diversification even though it pays a small dividend.

  The point I want to stress is that building a portfolio isn’t simply selecting names you like. I selected these ten because they make for a well-rounded portfolio. A portfolio is a cohesive whole. It all needs to work together. It’s like a baseball lineup. For example, we have retail, consumer, industrials, financials, utilities and REITs. Some will do well when others are lagging.

  Also, bear in mind that this is a portfolio designed to produce income. It’s not going to be a fast grower. Go to crypto if you want excitement. This portfolio won’t be exciting, but it should hold up well in rapid bull markets.

  My goal with this portfolio is to show you the key concepts in designing a portfolio with a specific goal in mind.

  A good portfolio can be well diversified with as few as eight stocks, and it can be poorly diversified with 100 stocks.

  Here’s a sample portfolio with our ten names:

  

  I’ve listed each stock’s ticker symbol, total number of shares, Monday’s closing price, dividend per share, the value of each position, projected dividend income and the yield.

  I used $100,000 as a sample, but feel free to multiply or divide these positions to satisfy your portfolio needs.

  As you can see, this portfolio yields a healthy 2.66% per year, plus these are safe and secure stocks.

  Next, I want to show you the power of dividend income. What if we had bought those ten stocks 20 years ago? Here’s how much you would be yielding on those stocks today if you had bought them in April 2004:

  

  It’s odd to think that you would be yielding close to 10% with JNJ, but that’s what it would be based on a 20-year-old original purchase price.

  Sure, 20 years is a long holding period, but the important point is that with investing, time is on your side.

  Consider this thought exercise. Let’s say there’s a stock that currently yields 0.5%. Many income investors would quickly overlook it.

  Let’s also say that this company grows its earnings and dividend consistently by 15% each year. If the valuation stays the same, then the dividend yield is always 0.5, but that’s masking how strong those dividends have been. In reality, the dividend income has strongly aided your returns. That’s why Einstein called compound interest, “the Eighth Wonder of the World.”

  ISM Manufacturing Increases to 50.3

  I should caution you that the stock market has looked a little weaker in recent days. There’s nothing to be alarmed about. After all, the market has had a strong run over the last five months, so some weariness is to be expected.

  The S&P 500 was weak on Monday, and it was down over 1.1% today before it wandered higher this afternoon. So far, the bulls have been able to repulse any bear attacks, but I wonder how much longer that can last.

  

  Tech stocks were especially weak today. The Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 1%. Tesla, which was already the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 during Q1, lost another 5% today.

  Oil rallied to $85 per barrel while the yield on the 10-year Treasury got up to 4.36%. That’s the highest this year.

  I wanted to mention yesterday’s impressive ISM Manufacturing for March. The reading increased from 47.8 to 50.3. This is important because any number above 50 means that the factory sector of the economy is expanding. The ISM had been contracting for 16 consecutive months.

  I also like to look at the ISM because it’s out fairly quickly. Most economic stats take a while to compute, but the ISM report is usually out on the first working day of each month.

  Tuesday’s report on job openings said that openings are largely unchanged at 8.8 million. That report was for February. Over the last year, job openings are down by 11%. Also on Tuesday, the Census Bureau said that construction spending fell by 0.3% in February. Private spending was unchanged, but public spending fell.

  The next big test for the market comes this Friday with the March jobs report. Wall Street thinks the U.S. economy created 200,000 new jobs last month. I’ll be curious what the wage numbers are. The consensus on Wall Street is that average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% last month.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

• Morning News: April 2, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 2nd, 2024 at 7:03 am

  Russia’s Seaborne Crude Exports Surge to the Highest This Year

  Oil Hits $85 for First Time Since October as Market Tightens

  Shell Says Support for the Energy Shift Will Wane If Prices Soar

  The $40 Billion Fund That’s Gambling With Europe’s Climate Goal

  Poor Nations Are Writing a New Handbook for Getting Rich

  Australia’s Central Bank Says Risks Around Economy a Little More Balanced

  South Korea’s Inflation Tops 3% for Second Straight Month

  Bond Comments by China’s Xi Hint at Possible Expansion of PBOC Toolkit

  Is China’s Economy Finally Bottoming Out?

  A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead

  A Higher-for-Longer Good Friday From the Fed

  Markets Are Back to Seeing Fewer Rate Cuts Than the Fed

  UBS to Launch Buyback of Up to $2 Billion

  Trump-and-Dump: Speculators Bet on Truth Social ‘Meme’ Stock

  Apple Flirts With Support Levels After Worst Quarter in a Decade

  Regulators Force Another Microsoft Split

  Legal Battle Kicks Off to Minimize Baltimore Bridge Liabilities

  Americans Are Buying Cheaper Cars

  Xiaomi’s Unproven EV Is Proving a Hit With Investors

  Tesla Cyberbeast Heads to Auction in First Test of Resale Value

  China Developers’ Shares Suspended in Hong Kong for Missing Results Deadline

  How One Tech Skeptic Decided A.I. Might Benefit the Middle Class

  GE Completes Three-Way Split to Start Trading As Separate Companies

  Verve Tumbles After Pausing Gene-Editing Trial on Safety Issues

  You Can Bet on Caitlin Clark Making Threes. The N.C.A.A. Isn’t Happy

  The Battle Lines in the War Over Disney’s Board

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• Morning News: April 1, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, April 1st, 2024 at 7:06 am

  What 10 Years of Modi Rule Has Meant for India’s Economy

  South Korean Export Growth Continued in March

  China Industrial Upswing Is Latest Sign of Economic Recovery

  Is Japan Finally Out of Its 30-Year Slump? Economists Are Optimistic That Japan Is Back—and They Say They Have the Data to Prove It

  Bank of Japan Tankan Survey Shows Mixed Results Amid Rate-Hike Speculation

  Fertility Startups in Japan Step In as Treatment Demand Soars

  Japan’s Top Utility Pilots Ammonia Use to Reduce Coal Emissions

  US Oil Suppliers Muscling Into OPEC+ Markets All Over the World

  Gold Jumps to Record as Favored Fed Inflation Gauge Stokes Rally

  Relentless US Credit Demand Seen Driving Second-Quarter Rally

  The Dollar Is More Armored Division Than Currency

  Texas Federal Judge Blocks Updated Fair Lending Rules

  Biden’s Economic Plan for Latin America Begins to Take Shape

  Young Voters Are More Concerned With the Economy. That’s Bad for Biden

  39,000 Lost Jobs Undercut Biden’s Manufacturing Wins

  Bridgewater CEO’s Turnaround Hinges on Wooing Restless Clients

  Capital One-Discover Merger Deal Termination Fee Set at $1.38 Billion

  Rakuten Group Aims to Integrate Bank, Fintech Units

  Chip & Joanna Gaines Vivify the Dangers of Antitrust

  OTIS: To Go Unnoticed

  Baltimore Ship Accident Has East Coast Ports Scrambling to Absorb Cargo

  Ships Have Become Supersized Since Baltimore Bridge Was Built

  Tesla Has Wall Street Worried About How Many Cars It Just Sold

  Auto Execs Call for New Measures as E.V. Wars Heat Up

  French New Car Sales Decline 1.5% in March, PFA Association Says

  You Don’t Need to Freak Out About Boeing Planes (but Boeing Sure Does)

  Chile Telecom Operator WOM Files for Bankruptcy in the US

  This Disney War Has Already Paid Off

  A Look at Hasbro’s ‘Monopoly’ To Calm the Nerves of Monetarists

  As Graffiti Moves From Eyesore to Amenity, Landlords Try to Cash In

  How Street Art Is Gentrifying Neighborhoods

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