Archive for May, 2024

• Morning News: May 21, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 21st, 2024 at 7:02 am

  Spain to Fully Withdraw Ambassador From Argentina

  ASML and TSMC Can Disable Chip Machines If China Invades Taiwan

  U.S. Seeks to Join Forces With Europe to Combat Excess Chinese Goods

  Botswana Seeks Brazil, Australia Grain as El Niño Withers Crops

  Is Net Zero by 2050 Still Possible? Yes, But It’ll Cost 19% More

  Power Grids Can No Longer Be Tomorrow’s Problem

  Yellen Warns German Banks to Boost Compliance with US Sanctions on Russia

  Global Government Bonds Face Period of Temporary Calm

  FDIC Chair Says He’ll Leave Job After Toxic Workplace Report

  FDIC Fight Exposes Grubby Politics of Regulation

  This Man Did Not Invent Bitcoin

  What a World Growing Older Fast Means for Investing

  Conservative Investor Pulls JPMorgan Resolution, Cites Changes Addressing ‘Politicized Finance’

  US Tech Battle With China Not Helping New Grads

  Scarlett Johansson Said No, but OpenAI’s Virtual Assistant Sounds Just Like Her

  Scarlett Johansson and OpenAI’s Trust Issues

  Nvidia Earnings Could Spark $200 Billion Swing in Shares, Options Show

  Google’s Moonshot Factory Falls Back Down to Earth

  The Battle Over Project Management Software Is Getting Personal

  Real-Estate Downsizing Finally Comes for Your Pharmacy

  One Dead, Others Injured as Singapore Airlines Flight Hits Turbulence

  Lowe’s Quarterly Sales Decline Slower than Expected on Steady Demand for Small Repairs

  Macy’s Reports Another Drop in Sales

  The Siblings Who Changed How We Party

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• Morning News: May 20, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 20th, 2024 at 7:05 am

  Chinese Firms Face Authoritarianism at Home and Hostility Abroad

  The U.S. Finally Has a Strategy to Compete With China. Will It Work?

  Senate Inquiry Finds BMW Imported Cars Tied to Forced Labor in China

  Li Auto Profit Fell on Higher Operating Expenses

  Putin’s Pipe Dream Exposes China’s Energy Advantage

  Djibouti Emerges as a Rare Hub of Stability in Red Sea Turmoil

  Europe Wants to Build a Stronger Defense Industry, but Can’t Decide How

  Raisi Crash Exposes Dangers of Iran’s Threadbare Aviation Fleet

  Gold Climbs to Record on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes

  Speedier Wall Street Trades Are Putting Global Finance On Edge

  Japan’s Inexperienced Investors Fall for Scams ‘Like Babies’

  JPMorgan Raises 2024 Interest Income Forecast to $91 Billion

  Millennium Covets Citadel-Size Commodities Gains, Just Not the Risk

  Archegos Risk Head Lied to Wall Street. Now He’s a Star Witness

  Renting Forever and Trying to Create a Strong Financial Future

  The Cooling in Apartment Rents Won’t Last Long

  Musk Effect Drives Spread of Supersize CEO Pay Packages

  Google Attacks Microsoft Cyber Failures in Effort to Steal Customers

  Apple Puts Rival App Stores Behind a Tall Barricade

  Inside Oracle’s Deadly Gamble on Cerner and Electronic Health Records

  Quantum Computing Gets Real: It Could Even Shorten Your Airport Connection

  What We Lose When ChatGPT Sounds Like Scarlett Johansson

  This Nintendo Game Emulator Shows What a Freer iPhone Looks Like

  These 10 Startups Are Shaking Up the Race Into Space

  Red Lobster Chain Goes Bankrupt After Unlimited Shrimp Deal

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• Morning News: May 17, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 17th, 2024 at 7:03 am

  How Tiny Djibouti Said ‘No’ to the US Over Houthi Red Sea Attacks

  US Biofuel Markets Are in Turmoil Over Imports From China

  China Attempts to End Property Crisis With Broad Rescue Package

  Global Equity Funds Draw Inflows on Rate Cut Hopes, Soft US Economic Data

  Supreme Court Rejects Challenge to Consumer Watchdog’s Funding

  Despite Consumer Watchdog’s US Supreme Court Win, Agency Powers Still on Chopping Block

  US Money-Market Assets Rise to Highest Level in a Month

  BlackRock’s Rieder Says Cut, Not Hike, Would Tame US Inflation

  Goldman Sachs Looks to Expand Private Equity Credit Lines as Dealmaking Picks Up

  Revival of Meme-Stock Frenzy Points to a Frothy US Stock Market

  GameStop Shares Retreat on Preliminary 1Q Report

  Taiwan, on China’s Doorstep, Is Dealing With TikTok Its Own Way

  Microsoft’s Mistral AI Pact Avoids UK Antitrust Scrutiny

  CoreWeave Raises $7.5 Billion in Debt for AI Computing Push

  Reddit Shares Jump After OpenAI Partnership Deal

  Brookfield Plans to Invest $500 Million in Leap Green

  Influencers Reap $1 Billion Fortune With Brazil Pharma Business

  The Medicare Bubble Has Burst

  Walgreens and CVS Are Trying to Fix America’s Flailing Pharmacies

  Farmers Are Breeding Hybrid Dairy Cattle to Sell for Meat

  The Food Court Is Back

  Red Lobster Is in Trouble

  Gen Z Is Fueling a Cassette Tape Comeback

  FIFA Amends Rules to Allow Headquarters to Move From Zurich

  Retailers’ Shelves Are Attractive Again. At Least for Skechers

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• Morning News: May 16, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 16th, 2024 at 7:06 am

  Japan’s Economy Shrinks Again as Inflation Hits Consumers’ Pocketbooks

  US Efforts to Reshape Global Supply Chains Gather Pace in Asia

  U.S. Blocks Imports From 26 More Chinese Companies Over Forced Labor Concerns

  Istanbul Pushes Ahead With IPO Plan for $10 Billion Gas Grid

  Big Bets on Gas Demand Show Fuel Is Far From Fading

  Milei Targets Labor Law That’s Set to Hand Banker $10 Million Severance

  ECB Says Risks to Financial Stability Have Eased as Threat of Recession Recedes

  America Is Still Headed for a Soft Landing

  In About-Face, Wall Street’s Big Donors Warm to Trump

  Silicon Valley Stirs Back Into IPO Life

  Buffett’s Berkshire Reveals $6.7 Billion Stake in Insurer Chubb

  The GameStop Mania Is Back. Is Wall Street Ready This Time?

  Walmart Sales Surge as Wealthier Shoppers Flock to Retailer

  Walmart Beat Inflation. Now It Must Offer More Than Deals

  JD.com Beat Estimates With Higher Profit, Sales

  Baidu Posts Quarterly Beat, Helped by AI Pursuits

  Neuralink’s First Patient: ‘It Blows My Mind So Much’

  E.U. Investigates Meta Over Addictive Social Media Effects on Children

  Netflix and the N.F.L. Sign a Three-Season Deal

  Education Dept. Extends Deadline to Consolidate Loans for Forgiveness

  Florida and Texas Show Signs of Home Prices Falling

  U.A.W. Effort to Organize Mercedes Workers in Alabama Has High Stakes

  Singapore Air Staff Get Eight Months’ Salary Bonus After Record Profits

  Why It’s So Hard to Track the Fashion Industry’s Emissions

  Unilever to Keep Making Russian Ice Cream Even After Spinoff

  Beer Sellers Use a Loophole to Break Into Weed Drinks Market

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• Morning News: May 15, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 15th, 2024 at 7:07 am

  China Considers Government Buying of Unsold Homes to Save Property Market

  Qatar Says New Global LNG Projects Will Be Needed After 2030

  Exxon Feels the Heat as More Investors Assail Climate Conduct

  Copper Short Squeeze in NY Prompts Rush to Send Metal to US

  BHP Shareholders See Room for One More Sweetened Anglo Bid

  Thyssenkrupp Again Cuts Its Fiscal Year Sales and Profit Forecasts

  Hapag-Lloyd Lifts Lower-End of Guidance as Red Sea Situation Raises Rates

  European Development Bank Flags Higher Risk Premium Due to Lingering Cost of Russia’s War

  Were Those Hot Inflation Numbers Just a Bad Dream?

  NYCB Shares Rise as Loan Sale to JPMorgan Bolsters Liquidity

  Bridgewater’s CEO Warns Investors on Overconfidence

  Overdue Bills Are Rising With US Debt Delinquencies, Fed Survey Shows

  Is Roaring Kitty the Internet’s Warren Buffett?

  Are We Ready for AI That Sounds Like a Person?

  Silicon Valley Is Searching for Its Piece of the AI Action

  The Old-Fashioned Library at the Heart of the A.I. Boom

  Elon Musk’s Big AI Contradiction

  Tesla Board Rallies Retail Investors to Vote for Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Package

  Why the Hybrid Boom Is Funding EVs

  ‘Stroads’ Aren’t Streets. They Aren’t Roads. And They Don’t Work

  Why Is Car Insurance So Expensive?

  Allianz Backs 2024 Guidance After Profit Jump

  Kimberly-Clark Taps New Chief Growth Officer as It Heads Into Restructuring

  The DNA Test Delusion

  How MSNBC’s Leftward Tilt Delivers Ratings, and Complications

  Burberry Profit Falls as Soft Demand, Turnaround Bite

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• CWS Market Review – May 14, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 14th, 2024 at 5:52 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The Return of Roaring Kitty

  Yesterday, shares of GameStop (GME) soared 74%. At one point, the stock was up another 110% today, meaning it doubled on top of yesterday’s explosive rally.

  On Monday, trading was so heavy in GME that within the first 90 minutes, the stock was halted nine times. Trading volume was 30 times heavier than normal.

  So what caused this rally? A great earnings report? A possible merger? Nope, none of these.

  The answer is that Roaring Kitty tweeted.

  Confused? Allow me to explain.

  GameStop rallied on the news of the return of Roaring Kitty. That’s the nom de Twitter of Keith Gill, the hero of the meme stock universe.

  

  Three years ago, Mr. Kitty’s advocacy of GameStop spurred a frenetic rally in the stock. In six months, GME went from $1 per share to $120 per share, and it was all led by posters on Reddit, the WallStreetBets subreddit in particular.

  At one point, 140% of GME’s shares were held short. Some prominent hedge funds who were short GME saw their trades get completely blown out of the water. For once, the plucky amateurs routed the smug Wall Street professionals, and Roaring Kitty was their unofficial leader.

  Mr. Kitty’s Twitter account has been dormant for three years. The silence was broken Sunday evening when he tweeted what appears to be a man leaning forward with a game controller. The consensus is that Roaring Kitty has announced his return to action.

  He posted again on Monday. It’s a short video with the words “Fine, I’ll do it myself.” If nothing, he has a sense for the dramatic.

  I’ll confess, I’m a big fan of Roaring Kitty and I’m very interested to hear what he has to say. About GameStop, the stock has not performed very well. After peaking at $120 in January 2021, the shares dipped below $10 a few weeks ago. Perhaps that sparked Kitty’s interest. We’ll see.

  

  Of course, there’s a longer story involved. Wall Street is no stranger to manias and bubbles. In the 19th century, Charles Mackay wrote, “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

  When Roaring Kitty first pushed his analysis on Twitter in August 2020, he cc’d several Wall Street big shots, one of whom was your humble editor. Sadly, I don’t recall seeing it. I only learned of it later. I wish I had paid attention.

  The important point I want to stress is that there’s more to a trading bubble than share prices. For example, the meme stock craze happened in the early Covid period. That was a very unusual time. People were looking for an outlet. Plus, the Federal Reserve had slashed interest rates and the government had spent tons of money to help keep the economy afloat.

  As a result, investing risk was removed from the market. I’m not saying that those decisions directly caused GME to rally, but it helped set up the environment where an explosive rally could thrive.

  Not only that, but the rise of Reddit helped spur a culture of relentless amateur investors who wanted to take down traditional Wall Street. That’s why Bitcoin is a close relative to meme stocks.

  There’s still a lot of anger at Wall Street and I certainly understand why, but 2024 is not like 2020. Covid has gone away. The Fed has raised interest rates. Investors have moved on. (I always find it interesting how often GameStop is incorrectly called GameStock. That’s a classic case of an error which tells you the truth.)

  Is GameStop a good investment? I’m skeptical. Last year, GameStop reported a net profit of $6.7 million. Many ballplayers make more than that. GameStop has a market value of around $13 billion. In other words, it’s going for 2,000 times earnings.

  Bloomberg quoted one analyst on GameStop: “Game sales are flattish, hardware sales are down, and the shift to digital downloads continues, so it’s highly unlikely GameStop can stop shrinking.” That doesn’t sound good. GameStop is due to report earnings in a few weeks.

  As I said, I’m a fan of Roaring Kitty and I want to hear what he has to say, but for now, I’ll watch GameStop from a safe distance.

  Bristol-Myers’ Impact on Earnings Season

  We’re just about done with Q1 earnings season. More than 90% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported results. There are a few more reports due to come in. So far, the earnings season is much better than expected (or feared). Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is tracking at 5.15%. That’s up 1.46% from just a month ago.

  That’s the best growth rate since Q2 2022. More than 76% of companies have beaten their earnings estimates.

  There is, however, a statistical footnote to these results and that’s Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). If you exclude BMY’s massive loss, then earnings growth for the whole index rises to 8.3%. One company’s loss weighed the whole market down by 3%.

  For the quarter, BMY lost $11.9 billion or $5.89 per share. The loss was primarily due to BMY’s buying neuroscience drugmaker Karuna. BMY actually beat its revenue estimate, but the company also announced a cost-cutting program, and it will lay off more than 2,000 workers.

  Stock Focus: Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN)

  My friend JC Parets has started calling small, underfollowed companies “Eddy Elfenbein-type stocks.” I’m flattered.

  I have another one for you this week which is Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN). As you might guess, Allison makes automatic transmissions for trucks, buses, and industrial and military vehicles. Except for its earnings reports, Allison almost never makes the news.

  

  It’s a profitable business. Allison currently has a market value of $6.5 million. Over the last 12 years, the shares have gone from $17 to $75. The quarterly dividend has gradually increased from six cents per share to 25 cents. Allison has increased its dividend for the last five years in a row.

  Currently, seven analysts follow the stock which is more than I would have guessed. Tesla is followed by more than 30 analysts.

  Last month, Allison reported Q1 earnings of $1.90 per share. That was one penny better than estimates. The shares are currently going for just under 10 times this year’s earnings estimate, and only 8.6 times 2025’s earnings.

  I’m going to keep a close eye on Allison. This is a good stock with impressive margins. If only it had a Roaring Kitty of its own.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

• Morning News: May 14, 2014
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 14th, 2024 at 7:05 am

  Foreign Private Investors Set to Top Central Bank Bond Buying

  Macron Puts French Banks in Play With Plan to Transform Europe

  Funds Calling Themselves ‘ESG’ Face New Restrictions in Europe

  Big-Name Funds Pile into Real Estate Debt as Banks Retreat

  Biden Adds Tariffs on Chinese Chips, Critical Minerals, EVs

  Will Biden’s Trade War With China Get Results?

  Chinese Lithium Miners Undeterred by EV Battery Overcapacity

  How China Rose to Lead the World in Cars and Solar Panels

  US East Coast Ports Are Spending Billions to Profit From Asia’s Shifting Exports

  OPEC Sticks to Oil-Demand View, Posts Fall in Overall Output

  Anglo Goes for Bold Breakup Plan in Move to Fend Off BHP

  Macron Calls Defending Europe’s Car Industry ‘a No-Brainer’

  Self-Driving Cars? Not Yet. Here’s Why Your Ride Still Needs a Human Co-Pilot

  For David Solomon, ‘Times Are Good’ for Goldman and Economy

  High Interest Rates Are Hitting Poorer Americans the Hardest

  What Forecasters Say About Interest Rates (and Why They Disagree)

  How One of the World’s Oldest Hedge Funds Went Bankrupt

  How the ‘Harvard of Trading’ Ruined Thousands of Young People’s Lives

  A Jobs Program Broke the Rules to Succeed. Now the Rules May Change

  Melinda French Gates Exits Foundation With $12.5 Billion

  GameStop Shares Extend Meme Rally as Retail Traders Pile In

  GameStop Mania Won’t Pack a Punch Like in 2021

  Alibaba Quarterly Profit Sinks Despite Rise in Sales

  Tencent Profit Jumps as High-Margin Businesses Grow

  Flood of Fake Science Forces Multiple Journal Closures

  Paris Olympics May Bring $12 Billion Economic Boost

  Federer-Backed On Boosts Forecast After Sneaker Demand Rises

  Tinder, Bumble Look for Love in New Places as Fewer People Swipe Right

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• Morning News: May 13, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 13th, 2024 at 7:04 am

  Putin Turns to a Technocrat to Crank Up Russia’s War Machine

  Elon Musk’s Diplomacy: Woo Right-Wing World Leaders. Then Benefit

  Global Chips Battle Intensifies With $81 Billion Subsidy Surge

  U.S. Awards $120 Million to Chipmaker to Expand Facility in Minnesota

  Intel Nears Deal With Apollo for $11 Billion Ireland Partnership

  China to Start $138 Billion Bond Sale on Friday to Boost Economy

  An Inflation Test Looms Over the Economy and the Election

  Why Is Inflation So Stubborn? Ask Your Local Small Business

  The Case for Forever High Interest Rates

  Funds Go All-In on FX Trades Driven by Central Bank Drama

  All the Rage in Private Equity: Mortgaging the Fund

  UBS Announces Equity Conversion Provision for Almost $5 Billion in AT1 Debt

  Priced Out of Housing, Communities Take Development Into Their Own Hands

  Indian Renewable Energy Firm Plans Maiden Dollar Bond Sale

  Biden to Hike Tariffs on China EVs and Offer Solar Exclusions

  Nevermind Those EVs — Oil Demand Keeps Growing

  The Surprising Force Stalling Climate Progress: California Restaurants

  The Solar Storm Fried GPS Systems Used by Some Farmers, Stalling Planting

  SoftBank Commits $5 Billion to AI After Three Years of Losses

  Cybersecurity Risk Rose in Past Year, Say Compliance Professionals

  Squarespace to Go Private in $6.6 Billion Takeover by Permira

  GameStop Surges as ‘Roaring Kitty’ Return Adds Fuel to Rally

  Kids Hooked on Video Games Prompt a Flurry of Lawsuits

  Fast Food Forever: How McHaters Lost the Culture War

  At the Home of BTS, Turmoil Over a Rising K-Pop Star

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• Morning News: May 10, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 10th, 2024 at 7:03 am

  A German Initiative to Keep Workers Employed by Retraining Them

  ECB June Rate Cut ‘Most Likely’ If Outlook Holds, Elderson Says

  Britain Shakes Off Recession as Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

  Biden Set to Impose Tariffs on China EVs, Strategic Sectors

  Why Higher Fed Rates Are Not Totally Off the Table

  Hedge Funds Draw Pension Money to Riskiest Corner of a $1.3 Trillion Credit Market

  UBS Mulls Bonus for Investment Bankers Who Lure Rich Clients

  Ackman Scolded Over DEI Views at Closed-Door Milken Session

  Corporate America Is Sitting Out the Trump-Biden Rematch

  Severe Solar Storm Threatens Power Grids and Navigation Systems

  Did You Make Your Connecting Flight? You May Have A.I. to Thank

  Microsoft’s Hedge Against OpenAI Makes Perfect Sense

  Tech Conference Touched on Everything From AI Fears to a Belching Robot

  The Dangerous and Lucrative Business of Space Clean-Up

  ‘I’m Not Your Mom’: Tech Exec’s Videos Spark Clash Over China’s Work Culture

  China Auto Sales Fell in April Amid EV Price War

  Does Your EV Hurt, or Help, the Economy?

  Elon Musk Changes Tune on Tesla Superchargers After Mass Firing

  Honda Motor Expects Annual Profit to Fall, Announces Share Buyback

  Novavax Soars on $1.2 Billion Sanofi Vaccine Licensing Deal

  ‘The Caitlin Clark Effect Is Real,’ and It’s Already Changing the WNBA

  Why Your Chocolate Fix Is About to Get More Expensive

  California Says Restaurants Must Bake All of Their Add-on Fees into Menu Prices

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• Morning News: May 9, 2024
  Eddy Elfenbein, May 9th, 2024 at 8:08 am

  The Debate Is Heating Up Over China’s Factory Output

  China’s Exports Return to Growth in April, Boosting Economy

  Why China’s Xi Faces a Pressing Challenge in Europe

  Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Signals It’s Closer to Cutting

  Malaysia Central Bank Holds Rates Steady, as Widely Expected

  What CFOs Are Saying About Higher-for-Longer Rates

  Ex-Goldman Banker Fights Extradition Over Ghana Bribery Case

  More Regulators Eye Whistleblower Award Programs Hoping for Insider Tips

  Two Chinese Megacities Lift Home Purchase Curbs to Attract Buyers

  With China’s Property Market Struggling, India, Korea and Vietnam Are Hot

  ‘Seriously Underwater’ Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US

  Gen Z Is Relying on Debt More Than Millennials Did at This Age

  What’s a Golden Visa and Where Can You Still Get One?

  What Happens When a Happening Place Becomes Too Hot

  Floods in East Africa Damp Mother’s Day Cut-Flower Shipments

  Meet My A.I. Friends

  Apple’s New iPad Ad Leaves Its Creative Audience Feeling … Flat

  Tim Cook Can’t Run Apple Forever. Who’s Next?

  ‘It’s a Money Loser’: Tax Breaks for Data Centers Are Under Fire

  Reddit Seeks New Users, Revenue to Keep the Momentum Going

  Norfolk Southern Shareholders Vote Thursday to Keep or Fire CEO

  BAE Systems Backs Guidance as Defense Spending Remains High

  Moderna’s New RSV Vaccine Undercuts the Promise of mRNA

  Sony and Apollo’s Plan for Paramount: Break It Up

  Disney, Hulu and Max Streaming Bundle Will Soon Become Available

  Brands Face Growing Pressure From Activist Shareholders Over LGBTQ Marketing

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