Archive for September, 2024
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Morning News: September 17, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 17th, 2024 at 7:05 amJapan Halts Removal of Melted Fuel at Fukushima on Camera Outage
Biden Struggles to Refill Oil Reserve on the Cheap
US Allies Struggle to Break China’s Dominance of Rare Earths
China’s ‘Silver Economy’ Is Thriving as Birthrate Plunges
German Economic Expectations Darken Further
DP World Teams With Nedbank to Finance More Africa Trade
Workforce Dropouts Make UK ‘Sick Man of Europe,’ Report Says
Banking’s New Era of Capital Puts Watchdogs on the Spot
Bank Mergers May Get Tougher to Do
Banking Deal Oversight Expected to Get a Major Revamp
Hong Kong’s Biggest Listing in Years Lures Back Global Investors
Bets Are In, But the Fed’s Still Running the Casino
Markets Hinge on Powell Emulating Greenspan’s Soft Landing
Will Lower Rates Unleash a Business Boom? It’s Complicated.
What Fed Rate Cuts Will Mean for Five Areas of Your Financial Life
Trump’s Banker Brawls With Whistleblowers, Marxists and Shorts
Business Schools Are Undergoing Unusual Change
A Decade After ‘Lean In,’ Progress for Women Isn’t Trickling Down
Biggest Question from Kroger-Albertsons Trials: What’s a Grocery Store?
Kroger Antitrust Case Could Open Up New Bag of M&A Possibilities
Microsoft Plans New $60 Billion Buyback, Raises Dividend 10%
Amazon’s Five-Day Office Mandate Isn’t as Strict as it Sounds
Meta Plans to Bar the Russian TV Network RT From Its Apps
Instagram, Facing Pressure Over Child Safety Online, Unveils Sweeping Changes
Instagram’s New ‘Teen Accounts’: What Parents and Kids Need to Know
Sony Is Rethinking the Console Business Model With PS5 Pro
Universal Music Banks on Subscriptions, Partnerships to Drive Revenue Growth Through 2028
PGA Tour’s Saudi Deal Drags On With Players Arguing Over Pay
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Morning News: September 16, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 16th, 2024 at 7:03 amUK Targets London Outpost of Iran Oil Kingpin ‘Hector’
Why Washington and Big Oil Are Investing Billions in Ammonia
The Power Grid Has Withstood the Heat, but Electric Supplies Are Tight
Big Energy Issue in Pennsylvania Is Low Natural Gas Prices. Not Fracking
Saipem Shares Rise on $4 Billion Contract From QatarEnergy
Nigeria Set to Pause Rates as Inflation Slows to Six-Month Low
Why Europe Is Embracing the New American Growth Model
Fed Ready to Unshackle US Economy With Soft Landing at Stake
Fed Enters Tricky Terrain: Rate Cuts in a Decent Economy
The Fed Is Still Banking on a Labor Market Miracle
Bill Dudley: The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will
S&P 500 Is Surviving Big Tech’s Slide as ‘Other 493’ Catch Up
Ten Money Managers Exit Eisler as Hedge Fund’s Gains Stall
Hedge Funds Switch to Buying Banks, Insurance and Trading Firms, Says Goldman Sachs
UniCredit, Commerzbank Merger Could Add Shareholder Value, Orcel Tells Paper
Private Equity’s Insurance Bets Raise Risks, BIS Researchers Say
A $33,000-a-Year Child Care Burden Vexes Harris, Trump Campaigns
TikTok Fights US ‘Sale-or-Ban’ Law in Key Appeals Court Faceoff
China Claims Chipmaking Gear Advance Despite Tightening US Curbs
AI Boom Is Driving a Surprise Resurgence of US Gas-Fired Power
Waymo Sets Its Sights on ‘Premium’ Robotaxi Passengers
After Layoffs, Tesla’s Supercharger Expansion Slows
‘Buy America’ Feud Risks 200 Mile-an-Hour Rail From Vegas to LA
Tencent’s Pony Ma Reclaims Title of China’s Richest Person
These Millionaires Can Afford Their Dream Home. They’re Renting Instead
Rupert Murdoch is Set to Face His Kids in Court, with Fox News’ Fate in the Balance
The Customized Drink Is Out of Control
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Morning News: September 13, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 13th, 2024 at 7:02 amUK’s Approval of First Coal Mine in Three Decades Unlawful, Court Rules
The Hague Is World’s First City to Ban Oil and Air Travel Ads
Truck Maker Volvo Delays Construction of Battery Plant in Sweden
Stoppage at China Lithium Mine Won’t Be Enough to Ease Supply Glut
China Internal Passport Revamp Could Fuel New China Growth
U.S. Moves to Block a Popular Tariff-Free Path for Chinese Goods
Dejected Social Media Users Call ‘Garbage Time’ Over China’s Ailing Economy
China Is Risking a Deflationary Spiral
Russia Hikes Key Rate, Might Do So Again as War Fuels Price Rises
Fed to Pursue Three Quarter-Point Cuts This Year, Economists Say
The Fed Has No Choice But to Assume the Worst
Behind the Trump Crypto Project Is a Self-Described ‘Dirtbag of the Internet’
HSBC Said in Talks to Sell South African Unit to FirstRand
US Driving and Congestion Rates Are Higher Than Ever
US Housing Market Awaits Boost After Worst Key Season in Years
China Fines PwC $62 Million for Botching Its Work for Evergrande
China’s First Retirement Age Hike Since 1978 Triggers Discontent
Stranded in the CrowdStrike Meltdown: ‘No Hotel, No Food, No Assistance’
Boeing’s Seattle Workers Walk Out in First Strike Since 2008
United Airlines Taps Elon Musk’s Starlink for In-Flight Wi-Fi
Inside Elon Musk’s Mushrooming Security Apparatus
Intel Needs to Rethink What Leadership Means in New Chip World
Future of Murdoch Empire Comes Down to a Court in Nevada
AstraZeneca’s CEO Isn’t Distracted by the Race to Tackle Obesity
Luxury Brands’ New Snag? Handbag Arbitrage
A Stake in the Miami Dolphins Is Back on the Block
College Football Players Learn an Ugly Truth About Getting Paid
The Vegas Sphere’s First Live Sporting Event Will Be an Expensive One
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Morning News: September 12, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 12th, 2024 at 7:07 amPakistan Cuts Rates To Revive Economy as Inflation Cools
Hawkish BOJ Board Member Says Rates Should Be Raised to at Least 1%
Bank of England Eyes Growth with Lighter Bank Capital Reforms for UK Lenders
ECB Cuts Interest Rates for Second Time in Three Months
Germany Lobbies EU to Help More Industries With Power Bills
Broken Blades, Angry Fishermen and Rising Costs Slow Offshore Wind
Wall Street Quietly Turns Tail on Its Sustainability Commitments
From Fed to Elections, FX Turbulence Buffets Dollar Investors
JPMorgan to Cap Junior Banker Hours, BofA Monitors Workloads
Mastercard to Acquire Insight Partners’ Recorded Future for $2.65 Billion
Inflation Numbers Resolve What the Debate Couldn’t
Layoffs Are Low. That Doesn’t Mean the Labor Market Is Strong.
Young Chinese Émigrés Confront America’s Brutal Visa Lottery
How America Became a Republic of Distrust
Homebuyers Hit by Price Surge, Supply Crunch Rock 2024 Election
Madison Realty Capital Closes $2 Billion Property Debt Fund
What US and EU Crackdowns on Big Tech Mean for Apple, Google, X
OpenAI Aims for a $150 Billion Valuation
Intel Has Only Tough Options After Its Long and Stinging Fall From Grace
How the Election Is Sinking a $15 Billion Business Deal
Stellantis to Suspend e-Fiat 500 Output on Poor Europe Demand
G.M. and Hyundai Plan to Work Together on New Vehicles
Boeing Workers Cast Crucial Strike Vote Amid Contract Backlash
SpaceX Astronauts Conduct Spacewalk, Putting New Spacesuits to Test
Norfolk Southern’s CEO Survived an Activist Attack. Then Came Talk of an Affair
General Mills to Sell North American Yogurt Business for $2.1 Billion
Ozempic Is Selling So Well an Insurer Wants $1 Million in Payments Back
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Morning News: September 11, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 11th, 2024 at 7:05 amUK Eyes More Exports to French-Speaking Africa
Prices at the Pump Fall, a Win for Efforts to Fight Inflation
Is the Oil Price Slide a Red Flag or a Small Mercy?
Trader Hartree Sees Policy Reforms Lifting Asia’s Carbon Markets
Yen Strengthens After BOJ Board Member Signals More Rate Hikes to Come
A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?
US CPI to Show Another Muted Rise as Fed Debates Rate-Cut Size
Details of New US Bank Capital Rules Still Uncertain with Election Looming
UniCredit Makes Move on Commerzbank as Germany Starts Exit
HSBC Signals Maltese Exit Days After New CEO Takes Charge
Murdoch’s $7.3 Billion Takeover Bid Rebuffed by Rightmove
US Crypto Stocks Fall on Rising Bets on Harris’ Win After Presidential Debate
The Big Takeaways for Business from Debate Night
Taylor Swift’s Harris Endorsement Turns Tables on AI Abusers
Shortfall in Young Engineers Threatens Nuclear Renaissance
Europe Confronts Its Tech Dilemma: Regulate or Innovate
China Wants to Replace Jeff Bezos as Musk’s Greatest Space Threat
How Memphis Became a Battleground over Elon Musk’s xAI Supercomputer
When Self-Driving Cars Don’t Actually Drive Themselves
McDonald’s Rolls Out Kiosks That Take Cash, Pushing Diners Away From Cashiers
Campbell Drops Soup From Its Name, Not Its Plans
Topgolf Sent Callaway Into the Rough
LVMH Close to F1 Sponsorship Deal for Range of Luxury Brands
Lululemon Is Seeing a Slowdown in Its Women’s Business. Has It Reached Its Ceiling?
Kevin Plank Broke Under Armour. Can He Fix It?
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CWS Market Review – September 10, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 10th, 2024 at 6:03 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
“The idea that a bell rings to signal when to get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly fifty years in this business, I don’t know anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has.” – Jack Bogle
The Market Stumbles Into September
How things change after Labor Day! In last Tuesday’s issue, I told you that Labor Day has often marked a tone shift on Wall Street, Historically, September and October have been tough times for the market. Well, we certainly learned that lesson again this year.
Presidential election years have been especially difficult for the stock market. From September 7 to October 12 in presidential election years, the Dow has lost an average of 2.72%.
On the Friday before Labor Day, the S&P 500 closed very close to a new all-time high, but last week, the index had its worst week of the year. That’s even more impressive when you recall that last week only had four trading days. The S&P 500 fell lower on all four days, and it culminated in last Friday’s underwhelming jobs report (more on that in a bit).
The market rebounded nicely yesterday and today. The market’s thinking seems to have shifted from, “Good news! The Fed will soon be cutting rates,” to “Bad news, the economy is getting weak, and the Fed will soon be cutting rates.”
The next test for the market will be tomorrow’s CPI report. The inflation numbers have been getting better but at a very slow pace. The consensus on Wall Street is that the headline and core rate of inflation increased by 0.2% last month.
Weak Jobs Report Drags Down Stocks
On Friday, the government said that the U.S. economy created 142,000 net new jobs last month. That’s not that good. It missed consensus by 19,000. For July, the economy created 89,000 new jobs.
The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 4.2%, but the broader U-6 rate increased to 7.9% which is close to a three-year high.
The government also revised previous jobs reports lower. The total for July was cut by 25,000, and the June number was lowered by 118,000. Here you can see the steady decline in non-farm payrolls gains.
One bright spot in the report was average hourly earnings. That increased by 0.4% last month while the estimate was for a gain of 0.3%. Over the last year, average hourly earnings are up by 3.8%. That’s good to see, but it’s nearly in line with inflation.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%. It seems that more workers are shifting from full-time work to part-time. The household survey said that part-time employment increased by 527,000 and full-time decreased by 438,000.
From a sector standpoint, construction led with 34,000 additional jobs. Other substantial gainers included health care, with 31,000, and social assistance, which saw growth of 13,000. Manufacturing lost 24,000 on the month.
The Federal Reserve meets again next week. The policy statement will be released on Wednesday, September 18. According to the futures market, there’s a 100% chance that the Fed will cut rates. The only question is by how much.
Currently, the market thinks there’s a 67% chance of a 0.25% cut and a 33% chance of a 0.50% cut. Going by what Jerome Powell has said, I think the Fed is leaning towards a 0.25% cut. The futures market thinks there will be a 50 basis-points cut at the November meeting which will be two days after the election.
Investors should understand that the market is becoming more conservative. Value stocks and low-volatility stocks has been leading the market while many of the growth names have been lagging. Several prominent stocks are more than 20% off their highs. This will probably continue as rates head lower. I’m pleased to see that our Buy List has outperformed by a wide margin over the last two months. (It hasn’t always been that way!)
Stock Focus: Cass Information Systems
This week, I want to tell you about Cass Information Systems (CASS). Cass is a business services company based in St. Louis, Missouri. You probably have not heard of them, but Cass is crucial to many companies. Cass processes and pays 50 million invoices each year.
Cass wants to pay your company’s bills. The information services firm provides freight payment and information processing services to large manufacturing, distribution, and retail companies across the U.S.
Its offerings include freight bill payment, audit, and rating services as well as outsourcing of utility bill processing and payments. Its telecommunications division manages telecom expenses for large companies. Cass grew out of Cass Commercial Bank (now a subsidiary), which provides banking services to private companies.
The company’s international reach is truly impressive. Cass pays invoices in 185 countries and in 114 different currencies. Cass lets companies have complete visibility into every detail of their transportation spending with total trust in the data.
Cass helps save millions in telecommunications costs thanks to an expense management partner who studies the data and recommends savings initiatives. Cass helps pay utility bills reliably on time. Cass can also leverage benchmarking data for waste removal costs to negotiate new contracts. This helps save time and money.
This is a superb company that is largely ignored by Wall Street. This is an especially good time to look at Cass because it’s operating in a difficult environment.
In July, Cass reported Q2 earnings of 32 cents per share. That’s down from 52 cents for last year’s Q2. According to the company, Cass lost over “$100 million of non-interest-bearing funding due to a cyber event at a client and incurring an aggregate of $3.4 million of one-time expenses.”
CEO Martin Resch said, “We successfully onboarded several large facility clients, increasing year over year facilities transactions by 25.1%, with a full queue of additional signed deals still to implement.”
Now here are some important details on why I like Cass. The dividend currently yields close to 3%. That’s not bad in a lower-rate environment. Cass has very little long-term debt, and it’s sitting on a mountain (well, small hill) of cash. At last count, Cass’s cash comes to $223 million. That works out to $16.41 per share. This is important because it tells us that Cass is more efficient than it initially appears to be.
The stock hasn’t performed very well recently which catches my attention. By conventional metrics, Cass is reasonably priced. However, if Cass can return to the kind of growth it used to have, then this could be a very profitable position.
Historically, Cass has favored doing several small stock splits every few years. That may lead people to think that Cass hasn’t done as well as it has. Cass currently has over 1,000 employees and a market cap of $550 million.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
P.S. There will be no Tuesday issue next week. I’m going to be at the Future Proof Conference in Huntington Beach, CA. If you’re around, please come by and say hello. We’ll be at booth #702.
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Morning News: September 10, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 10th, 2024 at 7:05 amJapan Must Curb Clean Power Reliance, Warns Leadership Candidate
Side Hustles on eBay Gain Popularity in Japan as Inflation Bites
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi
China’s Continuing Export Surge Likely to Invite More Pushback
Edgy Traders Brace for Potentially ‘Pivotal’ Trump-Harris Debate
What Wall Street Wants to Hear at the Debate
For Trump, Tariffs Are the Solution to Almost Any Problem
Trump Is the Only One Threatening the Dollar
He Scammed People for Their Money. He Was Also a Victim.
Criminal Charge Against Outspoken Short Seller Unsettles Wall St.
Goldman Sachs to Post $400 Million Hit to Third-Quarter Results as It Unwinds Consumer Business
Bank of America Raises Minimum Wage to $24 on Way to $25 an Hour
Private Equity Fights Insurance for $15 Trillion Retirement Prize
This Global Financial Capital Is an AI No Man’s Land
Apple, Google Lose Multibillion Dollar Court Fights With EU
The College Dropout Who Invested Billions to Cozy Up With Elon Musk
Just Miles from Kroger’s Court Battle, a Food Desert Shows What’s at Stake
How a Japanese Suitor Misread Politics with U.S. Steel Bid
Bankers Ratcheting Up Oil Deals Drive a Deepening Market Split
OPEC Trims Oil Demand Outlook Further Amid Price Slump
Big Oil Faces a ‘Good Sweating.’ Some Aren’t Fit
Brookfield Invests $1.1 Billion Into Green Fuel Maker Infinium
It’s the Airplane of the Future. It’s Still Grounded
Southwest Airlines Chairman to Step Down Amid Elliott Battle
BMW Cuts Guidance After Faulty Brake Systems Prompt Recall
Jorge Ramos to Leave Univision After 40 Years at the Network
Hedge Fund Pushes for End of Murdochs’ Control at News Corp
U.K. Competition Watchdog to Probe Carlsberg’s Acquisition of Britvic
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Morning News: September 9, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 9th, 2024 at 7:07 amKenya Struggles to Stabilize Public Finances After Tax Protests
China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage
Europe’s ‘Reason for Being’ at Risk as Competitiveness Wanes, Report Warns
Draghi Says EU Itself at Risk Without More Funds and Joint Debt
The Bond Market Rally Rides on How Fast the Fed Cuts Rates
Jobs Don’t Justify a Half-Point Cut. Will Inflation?
Stock-Selloff Fears for September Are Overblown
Biden and Trump Are Both Eyeing a Sovereign-Wealth Fund. Why?
More Cash for Kids Is Popular. It Might Not Be Wise.
How Americans Voted Their Way Into a Housing Crisis
Americans Face Credit Hit as Student Debt Goes Delinquent Again
Are Greedy Companies to Blame for Grocery Inflation? We Looked at the Data
B. Riley in Talks to Sell Majority Stake in Great American Group
PayPal Teams Up With Shopify in CEO’s Latest Partnership Deal
How Trump Could Turn a $400 Billion Green Bank Into a Fossil Fuel Lender
The Texas Billionaire Who Has Greenpeace USA on the Verge of Bankruptcy
China’s EV, Hybrid Sales Maintain Momentum
U.S. Prepares to Challenge Google’s Online Ad Dominance
Japan’s Rapidus Seeks Another $700 Million in Chipmaking Push
Boeing Reaches Tentative Deal With Workers to Avert Strike
Starbucks’ New CEO Made Shares Soar. Now He Has to Prove His Worth
Big Lots Files for Bankruptcy, Agrees Sale to Nexus Capital
Greed, Gluttony and the Crackup of Red Lobster
The Palace Coup at the Magic Kingdom
Ubisoft Shares Slump After Investor Urges Assassin’s Creed Maker to Go Private
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Morning News: September 6, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 6th, 2024 at 7:02 amSeven & I Reply to Couche-Tard Shows Japan’s M&A Era Has Arrived
U.S. Blowback to Steel Merger Vexes Japan
Japan Tries to Reclaim Its Clout as a Global Tech Leader
China’s $100 Billion Short Against Dollar Enriches Hedge Funds
Russian Court Freezes Raiffeisen Shares in Local Bank, Blocking Sale
Eurozone Economy Weaker Than Previously Estimated as ECB Prepares to Meet
ECB’s Lagarde Set to Skip Budapest Ecofin, Only Attend Eurogroup
German Recession Fears Mount as Industry Slump Endures
Warren Buffett’s Haul From Bank of America Stock Sales Nears $7 Billion
Investor Dash to Cash Continues Ahead of Fed Rate Cut, BofA Says
The Yield Curve Is Disinverting. Why Should I Care?
US Jobs Report May Show Hiring Bounce, Decide Size of Fed Cut
The Downside of Falling Interest Rates
US Bonds Climb as Traders Look to Jobs Data to Back Big Fed Cuts
Breaking Down Trumponomics 2.0
America Has a Gender and Racial Pay Gap That Just Won’t Go Away
Federal Judge Temporarily Blocks Another Pillar of Biden’s Student Debt Plan
Voters Love No Tax on Tips, But Split Over $25,000 Housing Help
Australia Gave People a Right to Log Off, and Bosses Are Unhappy
Companies Finally Find a Use for Virtual Reality at Work
Yondr Finds Business Success in School Phone Bans
A.I. Isn’t Magic, but Can It Be ‘Agentic’?
Larry Ellison Will Control Paramount After Merger
Americans Eat 42 Pounds of Cheese a Year. $4 Billion Says They Want More
The 35-Year-Old CEO Plotting Red Lobster’s Comeback
Jean Paul Gaultier Owner Puig Shares Drop After Warning on China Challenges
On N.B.A. Player Podcasts, There’s the Star and Then the Other Guy
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Morning News: September 5, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, September 5th, 2024 at 7:05 amChina’s Central Bank Sees Room to Lower Banks’ Reserve-Requirement Ratio
BOJ Board Member Takata Sees Need to ‘Shift Gears’
Meloni Officials Aim for Italy Deficit Below 3% Within Two Years
Leaked Reports and Political Heat Are Testing Trust in Economic Data
Investor Bets Shift as Dollar Weakens with Looming Fed Rate Cuts
Why This Jobs Report Could Be the Most Pivotal One in Years
The Hot Labor Market Has Melted Away. Just Ask New College Grads
Private Equity’s Favorite Borrowing Tool Sparks Fresh Scrutiny
Jane Street and Citadel Won’t Devour All of Wall Street’s Revenue
Affirm to Profit Soon From Buy Now, Pay Later
Tax Policy Becomes a Fault Line for Harris
Howard Lutnick Emerges as Trump’s No. 1 Salesman on Wall Street
Ex-Discover Star Sues Over Pay Clawback Before $35 Billion Deal
Verizon to Buy Frontier for $9.6 Billion in Broadband Push
UK May Allow Amazon’s Starlink Rival to Offer Broadband Services
Blackstone Deal Unlocks $670 Million Fortune for AirTrunk Founder
As Crackdown Deepens in Venezuela, Chevron Says Keep the Oil Flowing
Delaying Oil Output Return Won’t Fix OPEC+ Problems
Nippon Steel Left Hunting Next Step as US Takeover Flounders
Electric Vehicles No Longer Need Subsidies, Indian Minister Says
NIO’s Second-Quarter Net Loss Narrowed on Sales Boost
Why Public EV Chargers Almost Never Work as Fast as Promised
Cures for Rare Diseases Now Exist. Employers Don’t Want to Pay
Investor Who Risked It All on ‘Wukong’ Scores Another Sales Win
Billionaire Sports Family Revels in Wall Street Money, World Cup and Taylor Swift
NFL Invades Soccer-Crazed Brazil in Push to Go Global
Leaked Disney Data Reveals Financial and Strategy Secrets
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