Archive for October, 2024
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Morning News: October 21, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 21st, 2024 at 7:05 amWhat to Know About the BRICS Group of Countries Rivaling the G-7
Chinese Banks Slash Lending Rates to Bolster Ailing Economy
Why Chinese Are Rushing Into a ‘Casino’ Stock Market
Israel Hits Hezbollah Finances as US Eyes Diplomacy in Lebanon
As Poor Nations’ Default Wave Peaks, Cash Shortage Could Take Its Place
JPMorgan Figures Show Surging Dollar Demand as US Election Nears
Trump’s Tariffs Appeal to Voters. Don’t Be Fooled.
Elon Musk Is Giving Away $1 Million a Day in Bid to be the ‘Secretary of Cost-Cutting’
U.S. Agencies Fund, and Fight With, Elon Musk. A Trump Presidency Could Give Him Power Over Them.
Wall Street Braces for a Lost Decade — But Not Yet
So You Have Decided to Buy Bonds. Here Are Six Charts Showing Your Options.
The Climate Short: Hedge Funds Pile Up Huge Bets Against Green Future
Coming in 2025: Even More Restraint on the Oilfield
The Energy Transition Is Powered By — Wait for It — Coal
Threat of Chinese Overcapacity Looms Over Memory Chips
TSMC’s Dominance Is Starting to Worry More Than Just Rivals
MetLife Said to Be in Talks to Buy Tycoon Li’s PineBridge Assets Outside of China
UBS sells its 50% stake in Swisscard to American Express
Crises at Boeing and Intel Are a National Emergency
Apple CEO Tim Cook’s Other Job: Helping Nike Turn Things Around
Meet the Florida Billionaire Who Wants to Be a Newspaper Baron
Behind Many Powerful Women on Wall Street: A Doting ‘Househusband’
Eight Bosses Confess Their Pop-Culture Guilty Pleasures
Empty Tables and Rising Costs Push More Restaurants Into Bankruptcy
CITIC to sell stake in McDonald’s China, HK operations for $430.3 Million
Watch Parties, Clinics and Guinness: How the N.F.L. Builds a Fan Base in Ireland
Halloween’s Mutation: From Humble Holiday to Retail Monstrosity
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Morning News: October 18, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 18th, 2024 at 7:02 amThe Billionaire Property Queen on Death Row in Vietnam
Japan Inflation Slows in September
China’s Lackluster Growth Continues, Signaling Why Beijing Acted on Economy
How China’s Planning Its Biggest Push in Years to Cut Hidden Debt
China Moves to Support Markets After Data Showing Economy Slowed
European Luxury Stocks Rise After Chinese Economic Data Fuels Recovery Hopes
Some ECB Governors Wanted to Drop Pledge to Keep Policy Tight, Sources Say
Shoppers Spend More Freely Than Expected, Sign of Solid U.S. Economy
How Is the Economy for Black Voters? A Complex Question Takes Center Stage.
Want to Understand the U.S. Economy? Watch ‘Shark Tank.’
How Trump Would Weaponize the Justice Department
Headhunter Said to Use Fake Identities to Dupe Wall Street Traders
AmEx Quarterly Profit Exceeds Expectations on Cost Control
A Reality Check for the AI-Driven Energy Rush
Microsoft and OpenAI’s Close Partnership Shows Signs of Fraying
Amazon Pitches Merchants on Artificial Intelligence for Ads
Northvolt Closes in on $300 Million Funding Deal, Source Says
Japan Hopes Electric Cars Were Just a Bad Dream
Robotaxi Flop Leaves Tesla’s Lofty Stock Multiple Looking Shaky
Tesla ‘Full Self-Driving’ Faces Defect Probe After Fatality
P&G Earnings: Sales Slip but It Holds the Line on Prices
At the Grocery Store, Blinded by the Light of the ‘Health Halo’
Why This Pharma Boss Isn’t Chasing the Obesity Hype
CVS Ousts CEO Karen Lynch, Names Caremark Head as New Chief
What It Really Means When a 1-in-1,000-Year Rainstorm Hits
Netflix Shares Jump 7% in Premarket After Third-Quarter Earnings Beat
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Morning News: October 17, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 17th, 2024 at 7:05 amJapan Exports Fell More Than Expected in September
Eurozone Trade Surplus Declines as Exports to China Fall
China Considering Higher Tariffs on Car Imports
China’s $562 Billion Loan Push for Unfinished Homes Disappoints
A Second Trump Presidency Stands to Radically Remake World Trade
Yellen to Warn Sweeping Tariffs Would Ignite Inflation
Fed Stuck on Six-Week Data Cycle When Investors Want a Forecast
Blackstone’s Credit Arm Is Now Top Business, Fueling Profits
Tapped-Out Consumers Are Ditching Fast Shipping to Save Money
Easing Food Prices Aren’t Enough for Pinched Shoppers, Nestlé Says
Florida Homeowners Fear Soaring Insurance Cost After Hurricanes
The Math Says It’s Getting Harder to Break Into the American Middle Class
Boeing’s Strike Stalemate Leaves Mediators Hunting For Consensus
TSMC Hikes Revenue Outlook in Show of Confidence in AI Boom
Nokia Tempers Earnings Expectations After Sales Fail to Recover
BYD Is Winning the Global Race to Make Cheaper EVs
Musk’s Empire Risks Being Targeted by EU for Potential X Fines
Water Dispute Before Supreme Court Gives Rise to Unusual Alliances
Hungry for Energy, Amazon, Google and Microsoft Turn to Nuclear Power
Biofuel Boom Still Leaves US Soybean Glut
Financial Innovation for Nature Sparks Hope, Greenwashing Fears
Netflix’s 340% Rally Seen Sputtering With Sales Growth Past Peak
US ‘Click to Cancel’ Rule to Ban Subscription Traps
Disney Introduces New US Park Perk: Skip the Long Lines for $400
Jeweler Becomes Billionaire After 192-Year-Old Indian Firm’s IPO
Ski-Doo Maker BRP Looks to Shed Struggling Marine Brands
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Morning News: October 16, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 16th, 2024 at 7:06 amEnd of the Oil Age Beckons for Top Forecaster
Why Milei Can’t Lift Argentina’s Currency Controls Any Time Soon
Why Europe Is Unprepared to Defend Itself
What 66 Economists Say About Where the Economy Is Headed, in Charts
Trump Defends Tariff Plan While Pressing for More Fed Influence
The True Cost of Trump’s Tariff Scheme
Can Remote Workers Reverse Brain Drain?
US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.52%, Highest Since Early August
Savers Bid a Sad Farewell to Higher Yields
Why Wall Street Is Warming to the Tokenization of Assets
Morgan Stanley’s Profit Beats Estimates on Investment Banking Windfall
U.S. Bancorp Lending Income Beat Estimates in Third Quarter
Stock Futures Flat Amid Morgan Stanley Earnings, Decline in Global Chip Stocks
Three Big Takeaways From Bank Earnings
Jamie Dimon Charts JPMorgan Expansion Plan Into Africa
Singapore Entertainment Firm Neon Is Said to Pick Banks for IPO
China’s Wild Stock Market Swings Hurt a $21 Trillion Bull Case
Global Chip Stocks Erase $420 Billion After ASML Sales Warning
California’s ‘Surgical’ Approach to Regulating AI Is Working
Hyundai’s Tarnished Alabama Plant Is Now Driving Its US Growth
Musk’s SpaceX Sues California Regulator Over Rocket Launches
Neuralink’s Top Surgeon Is the Even-Handed Counterbalance to Musk
CVS and Walgreens Are Ailing. Here’s Why
Holiday Sales Growth Expected to Normalize in an Abnormal Year
Luxury’s Last Growth Engine Has Stalled
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CWS Market Review – October 15, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 15th, 2024 at 5:24 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
The Stock Market Rally Turns Two Years Old
The bond market was closed on Monday in honor of Columbus Day, but the stock market was open, and it was a good day. The S&P 500 rallied to another all-time high. This was our 46th new high of this year. The market gave back some of those gains today, but we’re very close to more new highs.
Interestingly, we just passed the two-year anniversary of the market’s last major low. That came on October 11, 2022 when the S&P 500 closed at 3,577.03. From there to Monday’s close, the S&P 500 has gained more than 63%, not including dividends.
It’s been a remarkable rally, but what’s impressed me about the last two years, on top of the impressive gain, is how steady it’s been. To be sure, there have been bumps and turns like last August, but for the most part, this has been a smooth and steady 63% run.
I was also pleased to see several of our Buy List stocks hit new highs today like Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), FICO (FICO), Fiserv (FI), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Science Applications International (SAIC).
We’re in the early stages of earnings season and so far, the results look pretty good. According to Bloomberg, “analysts expect S&P 500 firms to report a 4.2% increase in third-quarter earnings versus a year earlier, down from a 7% forecast in mid-July.”
It’s early but so far, 30 companies in the S&P 500 have reported results. Earnings are coming in at an average of 5% better than estimates. At this time last quarter, earnings were running 3% higher than expected.
As we know, Wall Street’s usual game is to be as downbeat as possible going into earnings season thereby getting Wall Street analysts to lower expectations. Then, when earnings day comes, they announce a big earnings beat and hopefully, the stock will rally.
That’s pretty much what happened last week when the first earnings reports came out. Usually, the big banks are the first to report and that sets the tone for earnings season.
On Friday, JPMorgan (JPM) reported Q3 earnings of $4.37 per share. That easily topped the consensus of $4.01 per share. JPM is the biggest boy of a lot of big boys on Wall Street, and its results are very influential. It’s a Dow component and one of the largest companies by market value on Wall Street. If JPM is doing well, that’s probably a good sign for all banks.
JPM is particularly good at steering Wall Street’s outlook. Two months ago, the Street was expecting JPM to make $17.05 per share for next year. That’s now down to $16.73 per share.
JPM had a very good quarter for Q3, and lower rates will serve them well. More good news is that JPM said its net interest income will be about $92.5 billion this year. That’s up from its previous guidance of $91 billion. About geopolitical risks, CEO Jamie Dimon said, “Recent events show that conditions are treacherous and getting worse.”
Also on Friday, though not nearly as big, Wells Fargo (WFC) said it had particularly good results. For Q3, Wells made $1.52 per share which was 24 cents better than expected. The stock got a nice 5.6% pop on Friday, and the shares have continued to rally since then. Until a month ago, Wells looked like it was one of the weaker banks.
Thanks to the good earnings reports from many Wall Street banks, financial stocks have been doing well of late. Here’s the S&P 500 Financial Index compared with the S&P 500.
The financials hit a new high yesterday, and 36% of its members made new 52-week highs.
We had more good reports today. This morning, Goldman Sachs (GS) released a very good earnings report. For Q3, the bank’s profits increased 45% to $8.40 per share. That was above Wall Street’s consensus for $6.89 per share. Quarterly revenue was $12.70 billion. Wall Street has been looking for $11.8 billion.
Lower rates will be good for Goldman, as well. Last quarter, Goldman’s investment banking revenue rose 20% to $1.87 billion. Equities trading was up 18% to $3.5 billion.
Also on Tuesday, Bank of America (BAC) said it made 81 cents per share for its Q3. That was a four-cent beat. Compared with last year, the bank’s net income was down 12%. Revenue rose a bit to $25.49 billion.
In addition to traditional banking activity, BAC did very well last quarter with Wall Street operations like trading. BAC’s net interest income fell 2.9% to $14.1 billion.
In BlackRock’s (BLK) earnings report, the company said that its assets under management rose to $11.5 trillion. That’s staggering. In Q3, BLK had inflows of $221 billion. For the quarter, BlackRock made $10.90 per share which beat expectations by 92 cents per share.
Citigroup (C) has been trying to turn itself around, and the early results look favorable. The bank’s traders had their best Q3 performance “in at least a decade.” Revenue for its markets division rose a tiny bit to $4.82 billion. Trading revenue rose by 32%.
Citi’s credit card business is dragging along, but its other businesses are helping to make up for the weakness. CEO Jane Fraser is trying to engineer a major about-face for the Wall Street giant. While Citi is looking better, it still has a way to go to get back to full health.
Last quarter, the bank’s fees from investment banking increased 44%. Citi’s EPS fell to $1.51. Bloomberg noted that the “quarter included a provision of $2.7 billion, which was driven by the higher losses in the company’s card business.”
After today, we’ll see more of the non-banks report earnings. Wall Street is mostly optimistic.
Steer Clear of Boeing
I mentioned the turnaround efforts at Citigroup which leads me to an important lesson with investing. One kind of stock I generally steer clear of is the turnaround play. These are companies that have fallen on hard times. With the poor performance, the companies now have the latitude to make dramatic changes to right the ship.
However, in my experience, the problems usually run very deep, and the proposed changes are largely cosmetic. Turnaround stocks rarely turn.
The problem for investors is that the stocks can often appear to be value stocks. The prices are low relative to the company’s recent performance. The problem is that these ratios are backward looking, and it’s the future that’s worried the market.
A good recent example is Boeing (BA). The airplane maker has been in a mess recently. Today the company said it may turn to Wall Street to raise a heap of cash in stock or debt. Boeing said it could raise as much as $25 billion. That could stem some of the short-term financial issues, but Boeing is far from being a strong company.
In a separate filing, Boeing said it reached a $10 billion credit agreement with banks. Some of the credit agencies have warned Boeing that its credit may be downgraded. That would be very costly to Boeing.
Last week, CEO Kelly Ortberg said Boeing could lay off 17,000 workers which is about 10% of its workforce. On top of that, Boeing faces a strike from 33,000 of its machinists. S&P said the strike is costing Boeing more than $1 billion a month.
In January, a Boeing 737 Max 9 suffered “uncontrolled decompression.” A door plug flew off the airplane. Fortunately, no one was hurt but it was not favorable for Boeing. The FAA told Boeing that it’s under investigation.
Boeing’s stock is currently going for 1.24 times sales. In normal times, that could be considered cheap, but not now. Boeing has lots of problems that need to be addressed. I hope the company can turn itself around, but I caution investors that any value in Boeing may be a mirage.
This week will will be dominated by earnings news. Later this week, our first Buy List stock will report its earnings. I’m expecting more good results from our stocks.
I’ll be paying attention to the actual results, but I also want to hear what our stocks have to say about guidance. Typically, our stocks start out the year conservative with guidance and then will gradually raise guidance as the year goes on.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: October 15, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 15th, 2024 at 7:06 amChina Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains
Why Taiwan’s Status Risks Igniting a US-China Clash
German Economic Expectations Climb Ahead of ECB Rate Cut
IMF Warns Rise In Government Debt Could Be Sharper Than Anticipated
US Weighs Capping Exports of AI Chips From Nvidia and AMD to Some Countries
Prediction Markets Tell a Different Story From the Polls
Can the Stock Market Keep Going Up? Market Watchers Think So.
The Battle Between Dockworkers and Robots Isn’t Over
To Lure Home Buyers, Builders Still Have to Help With High Mortgage Costs
Simple Economics Can Help Cut Health-Care Costs
The Mighty American Consumer Is Powered by Higher Earners
Some Hedge Funds Are Missing a Trick — Volume Alpha
Goldman Stock Traders Head to Record Year, Fuel 45% Profit Surge
BofA Investment Bankers, Traders Help Earnings Top Estimates
A Key to Citi’s Regulatory Woes – Staff Need Skills ‘Enhancement’
Female Leadership Suffers When Private Equity Firms Invest
Bankers Are at a Loss When It Comes to Biodiversity
IEA Trims Oil-Demand Forecast for Third Consecutive Month
TotalEnergies Expects Continued Refining Weakness, Lower Hydrocarbon Production
The Shipping Industry Can Chart a Clearer Course to Go Green
This Year’s Hottest App Is a Wildfire Tracker
Boeing to Raise as Much as $25 Billion to Boost Liquidity
VW, BMW and Mercedes Are Getting Left in the Dust by China’s EVs
Walgreens Plans to Shutter 14% of US Stores Over Three Years
How Starbucks Became a Sugary Teen Emporium
Bandai Namco Begins to Cut Headcount After Culling Game Titles
New York Times to Bezos-Backed AI Startup: Stop Using Our Stuff
What Should a Music Magazine Be in the TikTok Era? Pitchfork Alumni Have an Idea.
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Morning News: October 14, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 14th, 2024 at 7:05 amOPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for Third Consecutive Month
Russian Oil Flows Through Western ‘Price Cap’ as Shadow Fleet Grows
China Carbon Prices Hit Record High Ahead of Compliance Deadline
China’s Clean Up Job to Tidy its Property and Local Government Mess
Killing of Japanese Boy Leaves Chinese Asking: Is This My Country?
Chinese Stocks Climb as Traders See Hope in Beijing’s Promises
Asia Watching China’s Policy Push Closely as Economies Brace for Spillover
Nobel for Economics Awarded to Authors of ‘Why Nations Fail,’ Former IMF Chief Economist
The Fed Has a Dependency Problem That Needs Fixing
CEOs and Analysts Are at Odds About S&P 500’s Earnings Outlook
Economists Say Inflation, Deficits Will Be Higher Under Trump Than Harris
Can Wall St. Help Harris Win Pennsylvania?
B. Riley Reaches Deal With Oaktree on Great American Partnership
The Harsh Reality of ‘Hurricane Insurance’
Why OpenAI Is at War With an Obscure Idea Man
Amazon Delivers Fewer Big Swings, Lower Costs in the Jassy Era
US Tech Firms to Invest $8.2 Billion in UK Data Centres
GM, Barclays Sign Long-Term Credit Card Partnership Agreement
Rivian: The Sinking Ship Of The EV Revolution
aBoeing’s Endless Doom Loop Gives No Respite to CEO Ortberg
Why Lasers Could Be Kryptonite for Drones
Lundbeck to Buy Longboard Pharma in $2.6 Billion Deal
Starbucks Scales Back Discounts Under New CEO
The Secretive Dynasty That Controls the Boar’s Head Brand
Attention Kmart Shoppers: It’s Closing Time
The Perils of Personalizing Your $500,000 Ferrari
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Morning News: October 11, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 11th, 2024 at 7:02 amGlobal Trade Grows but Remains Vulnerable to War and Geopolitics
China Investors Expect $283 Billion of New Stimulus This Weekend
Hurricanes and Other Disasters Will Help Shape Our Future Cities
Amazon Prefers Solar and Wind Energy to Nuclear Power in Asia
Middle East Conflict Creates a Volatile Moment for Oil Markets
Big Oil Gives a Reminder of the Market’s Weak Foundations
Bank of Korea Cuts Rate, Joining Global Wave of Policy Easing
A Record $6.47 Trillion Is Piling Up in US Money-Market Funds
Inflation Is Finally Losing Its Power Over Markets
The Market Has Been Fabulous, Maybe Excessively So
Wall St. Profits Surge Despite Questions About the Economy
BlackRock Hits $11.5 Trillion of Assets With Private-Market Push
JPMorgan Profit Beats Estimates on Investment Banking Strength, Higher Interest Income
Wells Fargo Profit Beats Forecasts as Provisions Shrink, Shares Rise
BNY Q3 Profit Rises as Assets Under Custody and Administration top $50 Trillion
The IPO Slump Is Fine Unless You’re Jamie Dimon
Boeing Hardens Tone With Union, Laments ‘Bad Faith Bargaining’
How Uber and Lyft Used a Loophole to Deny NYC Drivers Millions in Pay
Noel Tata Is New Tata Trusts Head to oversee $165 Billion Group
Musk Shows Tesla Cybercab, Sees Sub-$30,000 Cost and 2026 Production
Polestar CEO Says EV Maker Must Start ‘Actively Selling Cars’
Stellantis Shares Fall as Executive Shake-Up Fails to Calm Nerves
Nippon Steel to Sell Stake in Calvert JV to ArcelorMittal in Push for U.S. Steel Deal
Sanofi in Talks to Sell Controlling Stake in Consumer Health Arm to CD&R
Butter Made From CO2 Is Coming as Startups Chase New Fat Sources
For Student Athletes in Missouri, Playing at Home Is Lucrative
Lego Leaps Into Documentaries, With Pharrell Williams as the Subject
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Morning News: October 10, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 10th, 2024 at 7:04 amTop African Lithium Producer, Zimbabwe Plans Incentives to Encourage Mineral Processing
China’s Central Bank Launches Swap Facility to Boost Stock Market
China Wages End Two Quarters of Gains, Adding Deflationary Risks
Hedge Funds Sold Record Chinese Stocks on Tuesday, Goldman Says
Multilateral Banks Could Lend Up to $480 Billion More Before Rating Downgrades, Fitch Says
Hurricane Milton and the Economy
US CPI Data Will Likely Show Further Disinflation in September
For Bond Traders, It’s Wait Till Next Year (Again)
Lina Khan Is Just Getting Started (She Hopes)
This Election Marks a New Low for Fiscal Fakery
Interest Rates Will Be Higher in the Future, Especially if Trump Is President
Kamala Harris Win May Boost US Effort to Rein In ‘Junk Fees’ Levied on Consumers
Why Budgeting is Terrible Advice for Lower-Income People
The Endless Downfall of a Crypto Power Couple
Amazon Could Be Forced to Treat Drivers as Employees
Tesla’s ‘Dream Premium’ Faces Moment of Truth at Robotaxi Reveal
China Detains Four Taiwanese Employees at Apple’s ‘iPhone City’
Deutsche Telekom Looks to AI to Boost Revenue Growth, Trim Costs
Brookfield Outbids Segro With $728 Million Deal to Buy Tritax EuroBox
Delta’s Guidance Misses Estimates After Summer Upheaval
Unilever Sells Russian Business
7-Eleven Owner Plans Revamp of Noncore Businesses Amid Buyout Interest From Couche-Tard
Uniqlo Owner Posts Record Annual Earnings
Givaudan Reaffirms 2025 Targets After Sales Growth
While N.B.A. Plays in Abu Dhabi, Critics Cry ‘Sportswashing’
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Morning News: October 9, 2024
Eddy Elfenbein, October 9th, 2024 at 7:07 amChinese Stocks Tumble Most Since 2020 on Stimulus Skepticism
China Has Only Begun Its Long Road Toward Economic Revival
How a Series of Blunders Ruined a Latin American Socialist Success Story
Renewables Growth Set to Surge by 2030 But Falls Short of U.N. Climate Goal, IEA Says
Why the Market Shrugs Off the Mother of All Oil Shocks
Rio Tinto to Acquire Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 Billion
Reinsurers Prepare For a Historic Loss
Michigan State Channels Warren Buffett to Beat Ivy League Funds
Wall Street Salaries Decline Further From Pandemic Heights
Wall Street Bonuses Projected to Rise More than 7% in 2024, NY Comptroller Says
‘I’m Not Going to Wait’: Young Chinese Jump Into Stock Frenzy
Why Robinhood Is Seeking Merry Traders Overseas
Should You Refinance Your Mortgage Now as Rates Drop?
Amazon’s Costly Space Race Is Grounding Profit Margin Hopes
US Weighs Google Breakup in Historic Big Tech Antitrust Case
How to Say No to Our A.I. Overlords
US Debates Who Should Be Able to Buy American AI Chips
OpenAI Says China-Linked Group Tried to Phish Its Employees
Some of the Web’s Sketchiest Sites Share an Address in Iceland
Boeing Withdraws Contract Offer as Union Talks Break Down
Healthcare Premiums Are Soaring Even as Inflation Eases, in Charts
Nobel Prize in Chemistry Goes to 3 Scientists for Predicting and Creating Proteins
How Shame, Blame and the Internet Eroded Trust in Science
Abortion Rights Get New, Wealthy Backer in Melinda French Gates
Boehringer Open to Deals While ‘Laser-Focused’ on Obesity Drug
Disneyland Raises Prices by About 6% for Most Popular Days
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