Archive for January, 2025

• Morning News: January 21, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 21st, 2025 at 7:05 am

  India’s Economy Slows Down Just When It Was Supposed to Speed Up

  German Economic Hopes Slump Amid Uncertainty at Home and Abroad

  Trump Effect on Crypto Undeniable, Will Lure Investment, Coinbase CEO Says at Davos

  Milei ‘The Madman’ Is Back in Davos After Racking Up Victories in Argentina

  China Warns Against Trade Wars In Davos Speech

  Xi Dodges Early Trump Tariffs, Buying China Time to Influence US

  US Bonds Rise as Tariff Respite for China Eases Inflation Fears

  Trump’s Tariff Shifts Are a Warning for Corporate America to Expect Whiplash

  Trump’s Tariff Whiplash Puts Top Trading Partners on Edge

  He’s Ba-a-a-ck. Get Used to the Roller Coaster

  Surprise: Trump’s Inauguration Didn’t Offer Unity After All

  Elon Musk’s Antics Are Too Much for Germany’s Central Bank

  JPMorgan ‘War Room’ Examining First Days of Trump Presidency

  C.E.O.s, and President Trump, Want Workers Back in the Office

  Trump Sued Over Order Making It Easier to Fire Federal Workers

  US Retreats From Global Climate Fight

  Donald Trump Isn’t the Biggest Threat Facing Greenland

  Europe Must Not Rely Too Much on US Energy, Habeck Warns

  Oil Majors Flirt With Electricity

  Orsted Shares Sink on Writedown and Trump’s Anti-Wind Orders

  Taliban Rebuff Trump’s Call to Return US Arms Worth Billions

  Apple’s iPhone Sales in China Plunged 18% in Holiday Quarter

  Trump Signs Executive Order in Attempt to Stall TikTok Ban

  Bain Capital in Talks to Buy Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma

  Paris Olympics Medals Are Tarnishing, Putting LVMH in the Spotlight

  The Alcohol Industry Is Hooked on Its Heaviest Drinkers

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• Morning News: January 20, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 20th, 2025 at 7:09 am

  Saudi Crown Prince MBS Moves to Exploit Vacuum Left By Iran

  Saudi Arabia Is Still Assessing BRICS Membership, Minister Says

  Japan Central Bank Rate Hike Odds Could Turn on Trump Address

  Chinese Investors Pile Into Bridgewater-Style Funds, Eying Trump Return

  ‘Which Time Were You Lying?’: The Great CEO Flip-Flop Over Trump Hits Davos

  Old MAGA vs. New MAGA’s Cage Match Begins

  Hildebrand Worries that Global Inflation Is Stubbornly Sticky

  Is It Better to Have High Growth or Low Debt?

  How Trump’s New America Compares With 2017, in 11 Charts

  ‘God Candle’ Suddenly Sends Bitcoin To All-Time High Price As Trump Stuns Crypto

  Crypto Executives Warn Trump’s Memecoins Harm the Industry

  How Mexico Is Preparing for Trump’s Promises of Mass Deportations

  Christian Legal Group That Helped Topple Roe Shifts Fight to DEI

  The Federal Work Force Grew Briskly Under Biden. It’s Still Historically Low.

  Trump to Declare National Energy Emergency, Unlocking New Powers

  Trump Can’t Turn Back the Clock on US Climate Emissions

  Copper Market Sees Half Chance of 10% US Tariff by First Quarter-End, Goldman Says

  Big Banks Quit Climate Change Groups Ahead of Trump’s Term

  Los Angeles Fire Victims Turn to Prefab Homes for Quick Builds

  TikTok, RedNote and the Crushed Promise of the Chinese Internet

  TikTok Survives as an App too Popular to Ban

  TikTok Got a Reprieve, but Americans and Chinese Are Still on RedNote

  Nintendo Is Taking a Page From Sony’s Playbook With New Switch

  Telefonica Appoints Marc Murtra as Executive Chair, Replaces Ousted Jose Maria Alvarez-Pallete

  Does a Strong Holiday Shopping Season Mean a Better Year Ahead?

  Kohl’s Shoppers Want Its New CEO to Undo What the Last One Did

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• Morning News: January 17, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 17th, 2025 at 7:03 am

  Dalio, Fink and Benioff Join World’s Mega-Rich Arriving in Davos

  China Hits 5% GDP Target But Trump Tariffs Threaten Further Growth

  US-China Trade Fight Starts Early, Paving Way for Trump Tariffs

  What’s Behind China’s Coal Boom

  Rio Tinto, Glencore Discuss Mining’s Biggest-Ever Potential Merger

  Bessent Says He Would Support Sanctioning Russian Oil Majors

  What Did the Trump Tax Cuts Do? Nobody Really Knows.

  Trump’s Tariff Threat Is Already Panicking the Junk Debt Market

  Trump’s Own Plans Stand in the Way of Repeating His Economic Success

  Wall Street’s New Trump Playbook: Ignore The Noise and Carry On

  The Dollar’s Smile Can Change the World for Trump

  ‘We Still Have an Inflation Problem.’ A Fed Newcomer Wants to Go Slow on Rate Cuts.

  Mortgage Rates Top 7% for First Time Since Mid-2024

  Heir to Finance Billions Builds New York Private Credit Firm

  TikTok Makes Last-Minute Push as Supreme Court Is Poised to Rule on Ban

  Instagram and YouTube Prepare to Benefit if TikTok Is Banned

  Musk’s X Gets New EU Demand for Data as Regulators Expand Probe

  Saab Expects Sales Growth to Top Guidance

  Why Electric Vehicles Are Poised for Another Record Year

  Medicare to Negotiate Lower Prices for Weight-Loss Drugs

  UnitedHealth’s Revenues Rise, in First Earnings Report Since C.E.O.’s Killing

  The Big-Budget Rom-Com Is Dead. Long Live the Rom-Horror

  Unrivaled Charts a New Path for Women’s Basketball

  Tiger Woods Wants You to Watch Him Hit Balls Into a Big Screen

  NFL Adding 18th Game Is ‘Logical’ Next Step, Goodell Says

  As the Detroit Lions Surge, Fans Flock to an Unofficial Uniform

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• Morning News: January 16, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 16th, 2025 at 7:07 am

  The Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal and What Comes Next

  Brazil’s Economic Activity Downshifts as Key Rate Goes Higher

  Why Latest US Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal

  Canada Readies Tariffs on $105 Billion of US Products If Trump Hits First

  Biden Cites Threat From ‘Extreme Wealth’ in Farewell Address

  ‘Making The World a Better Place’ Is So Last Year

  Eight Years of Populism Hasn’t Gotten America Very Far

  H-1B Clash Exposes a Tough Choice for Trump: MAGA or Musk

  Hegseth and Rubio Show Substance Won’t Win in Trump’s Cabinet

  The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House

  Trump Faces a Powerful Check on His Power: Bond Vigilantes

  US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds

  Morgan Stanley Profit Doubles as Stock Traders Notch Big Beat

  Time Is Running Out to Recover Up to $135 Billion in Pilfered Jobless Benefits

  TSMC’s Upbeat Outlook Fuels Hopes for 2025 AI Spending

  Zuckerberg’s Aggressive Return to Political Debate Raises Stakes for Meta

  Apple in Talks with Barclays, Synchrony to Replace Goldman in Credit Card Deal

  On TikTok, Users Thumb Their Noses at Looming Ban

  BP to Eliminate About 5% of Workforce to Cut Costs, CEO Says

  What to Know About the E.V. Tax Credit That Trump Might Repeal

  Why the FDA Finally Banned a Cancer-Linked Food Dye

  UnitedHealth Revenue Falls Short, Sending Shares Lower

  Walgreens Replaced Fridge Doors With Smart Screens. It’s Now a $200 Million Fiasco

  Young Americans Are Drinking Less—But Can It Last?

  It’s a Good Time to Be Making Mocktails

  Cartier Owner Richemont’s Sales Beat Buoys Luxury Stocks

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• Morning News: January 15, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 15th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  South Korean President Yoon Arrested Over Martial Law Fiasco

  Economy May Grow 20% With Female Participation, World Bank Says

  Nigeria Inflation Rate at Near 29-Year High Before Data Overhaul

  US Inflation Data to Remain Firm, Feeding Fears of Higher Rates

  Russell Vought Poised to Expand Power of White House Budget Office

  How Scott Bessent Won Over MAGA and Wall Street

  Mister C.E.O. Goes to Washington

  Goldman Surpasses Estimates as Stock Traders Score Record Haul

  JPMorgan Traders Notch Record Fourth Quarter on Election Swings

  Who Will Succeed Jamie Dimon? The List of Contenders Narrows.

  Wells Fargo Takes $647 Million Severance Charge as Expenses Cut

  BNY Fourth-Quarter Profit Rises on Boost from Higher Fee Income

  BlackRock Assets Hit Record $11.6 Trillion in Fourth Quarter

  U.S. Watchdog Sues Capital One, Alleging Bank Cheated Customers Out of $2 Billion

  Economic Toll of Los Angeles Fires Goes Far Beyond Destroyed Homes

  Panama Wants to Preserve U.S. Alliance, but Trump Could Push It Closer to China

  Trump’s Folly? Greenland for Critical Minerals Is Utter Nonsense

  How Long Can Toyota Put Off Figuring Out EVs?

  Retailers Helped Fuel an EV Charging Station Blitz

  GM Signs Multibillion-Dollar Deal for Supply of EV Battery Materials

  US Aims to Tighten Flow of TSMC and Samsung Chips to China

  Musk Accused by SEC of Cheating Twitter Investors Out of Millions

  EU Tech Advocates Call for Greater Self-Reliance With EuroStack

  Albertsons Shouldn’t Make the Same Mistake as Walmart

  Why Costco Isn’t Joining the Backlash Against DEI

  How a Company Makes Millions Off a Hospital Program Meant to Help the Poor

  The Swiss Sneaker Brand Outrunning Nike and Adidas

  Thailand’s Lower House Passes Bill to Free Up Liquor Production

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• CWS Market Review – January 14, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 14th, 2025 at 6:22 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  One hundred and fifty years ago today, Congress passed the Specie Resumption Act. This act put the country back on the gold standard. The idea of the act was to get everything back to normal following the hectic and inflationary policies of the Civil War. I can’t help but think of the similarities between that era and today.

  When you’re at war, anything not directly related to the war effort gets tossed aside, and that includes fiscal discipline. For them, it was a war; for us, it was a pandemic. During the Civil War, the government stopped paying gold or silver in exchange for currency. Instead, it started printing greenbacks which weren’t backed by anything.

  Now that the war was over (we won), Congress wanted to get back to exchanging gold or silver for dollars, hence the name Specie Resumption. I bring this up not to do a lesson on economic history but to show the centrality of inflation’s role in our economic life.

  

  Tomorrow, the government will release the CPI report for December, and I’m concerned that it will show more evidence that inflation isn’t melting away. The consensus on Wall Street is that consumer prices rose by 0.3% last month. The Street also expects an increase of 0.3% for core prices.

  The funny thing is that if any of the politicians who debated the act in 1875 were magically transported to our time, they certainly would be astounded by many things in our modern age, yet they would largely understand our current monetary predicament. They had a war. We had a pandemic. They printed greenbacks. We let inflation fly, and now we’re trying to reel it back in, and that’s proving to be more difficult than we thought.

  The damage of inflation stings. Consider that over the three-year period covering 2022, 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 gained 29.3%, not counting dividends.

  Inflation, however, increased by 13.2%, and that doesn’t include the final month of 2024. We’ll get the data tomorrow. In simple terms, inflation ate up nearly half the market’s profits over the last three years. It’s like having a silent partner who takes half your winnings, before taxes.

  Investors in the 1970s certainly recall how troubling inflation can be. In fact, it was 50 years ago tomorrow that President Gerald Ford began his State of the Union Address by saying, “The state of the union is not good. Millions of Americans are out of work. Recession and inflation are eroding the money of millions more. Prices are too high, and sales are too low.”

  Incidentally, this is a big time of year for gold-related milestones. (Hat tip to my friend Gary Alexander who is a fountain of market history.) In January 1975, gold was finally legalized for Americans to own, and it was 45 years ago, in January 1980, that gold peaked at $850 per ounce.

  In the 1964 film, Goldfinger, Auric Goldfinger planned to irradiate all the gold in Fort Knox thus increasing the value of his gold. He would have been a lot better off doing nothing since gold increased dramatically over the next 16 years.

  The 1980 gold rally was extreme. Adjusted for inflation, gold was going for over $3,400 per ounce. This was the time when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the world silver market. In real terms, gold has lost more than 20% of its value over the last 40 years. If you had paid $25 for an ounce of gold instead of $850, you still would have lost to the dividend-adjusted S&P 500.

  Twenty-five years ago, the Dow peaked at 11,723. It wouldn’t top that for another seven years. Still, the market is up fourfold in 25 years. Gold has endless appeal for some investors, but for the long run, I’m on the side of stocks.

  Strong Jobs Report

  On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the U.S. economy created 256,000 nonfarm payrolls last month. That was well above Wall Street’s forecast for a gain of 155,000 jobs.

  

  The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.1%. The jobless rate has been below 4.3% for the last 38 months in a row. The economy also added 212,000 net new jobs in November. Last year, the U.S. economy added over 2.2 million jobs. The broader U-6 measure of joblessness fell by 0.2% to 7.5%.

  Here are some details from the report.

  Job growth came from the familiar sources of health care (up 46,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000), and government (33,000).

  Retail also saw a sizeable gain, up 43,000 after losing 29,000 in November heading into the holiday shopping season. The sector saw payroll growth of 2.2 million for the full year, down sharply from the 3 million gain in 2023.

  Revisions for prior months were less substantial than has been the recent trend. The October count saw an upward change of 7,000 to 43,000, while the November number was cut by 15,000 from the prior estimate.

  The household report showed that full-time jobs increased by 87,000, and part-time jobs rose by 247,000.

  Thanks to the strong jobs report, the bond market got knocked down. In two days, the yield on the two-year Treasury rose 13 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up over 100 basis points in four months, and it’s at its highest yield since late 2023. The 2/10 Spread just hit a 2.5-year high.

  

  On Tuesday, we learned that producer prices rose 3.3% over the last year. That’s the steepest increase in nearly two years.

  You can expect the Fed to take a breather later this month. The odds for another rate cut are now around 2%, and for March, the odds are at about 22%.

  The jobs report was a classic good news/bad market event. Higher jobs growth means there’s no need to cut rates, and stocks don’t like that.

  Thanks to a late-day rally, the S&P 500 closed higher today, but earlier in the day, the index was on pace for its lowest close in over two months. The S&P 500 recently dipped below its 100-day moving average, and since the end of the third quarter, the stock market has gained just 1.4%.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. I was recently on the “We Study Billionaires” podcast with Clay Finck. I had a lot of fun. Check it out.

• Morning News: January 14, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 14th, 2025 at 7:04 am

  China’s Central Bank Reiterates Easing Pledges Amid Policy Dilemmas

  In Global Market Rout, Britain Is the ‘Weakest Link’

  The World’s Benchmark Interest Rate May Be Higher Into the 2030s

  Trump Team Studies Gradual Tariff Hikes Under Emergency Powers

  Yellen Leaves Legacy of Alliances That Trump Is Threatening to Torch

  Inflation Could Derail Trump 2.0 Before It Starts

  Trump Team Eyes Gradual Tariffs to Contain Economic Fallout

  The Trump Trade Looks Like a Trap

  Traders Brace for S&P 500’s Busiest CPI Day Since March 2023

  At Charles Schwab, a Fresh Start After a Close Call

  Banks Claim They’re Still in the Climate Fight. Are They?

  LA Wildfires Losses Could Top $30 Billion for Insurance Industry

  Centrist Politicians Don’t Get That Immigration Is Like Trade

  Biden’s Push to Cancel Student Debt Surpasses 5 Million Borrowers

  Balance of Power Shifts Back Toward Bosses

  So Long, Net Neutrality, and Good Riddance

  TikTok Refugees Push China’s Xiaohongshu to Global Prominence

  China Weighs Sale of TikTok US to Musk as a Possible Option

  Biden Toughens China Curbs With AI Order, Smart Car Tech Ban

  ‘The New York Times’ Takes OpenAI to Court. ChatGPT’s Future Could Be On the Line

  Billionaire Steve Feinberg, Master of Cerberus, Gets a New Mission for Trump

  How Online Gambling Unleashed Transnational Crime on the Philippines

  DirecTV Launches Sports Subscription With NFL, Other Big Leagues

  JD Sports Shares Sink to Four-Year Lows After Guidance Cut

  Why Adults Are Hitting the Arcade in Search of a $3,600 Hermès Bag

  Versace Is the Wrong Fit for Prada’s Ambitions

  Why a Radical Retail Experiment Worked for Abercrombie and Barnes & Noble

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• Morning News: January 13, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 13th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  Chinese Trade Surplus Soars to $1 Trillion Ahead of Trump Return

  China Policy Focus to Shift More to Consumption, PBOC’s Pan Says

  Israel Raised Record Amount of Bonds Last Year to Pay For War

  Oil Hits Five-Month High as US Sanctions on Russia Menace Supply

  US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame

  Colombia’s Bold Push to Go Green Has an Unintended Trade Off: Gas Imports

  ECB Must Find ‘Middle Path’ on Rate Cuts, Chief Economist Says

  Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data

  Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome Start to New Year

  Doubting America Can Still Cost You a Lot of Money

  Why 2025 May Be the Year of Common Sense

  A US Hedge Fund Put UK Trusts on Notice. Good.

  Ackman’s Pershing Square Proposes Merger With Howard Hughes

  Inside Elon Musk’s Plan for DOGE to Slash Government Costs

  How Unauthorized Immigrants Help Finance Social Security Benefits

  iPhone Sales Drop 5% in Holiday Quarter After AI Disappoints

  Biden Administration Adopts Rules to Guide A.I.’s Global Spread

  OpenAI Courts Trump With Vision for ‘A.I. in America’

  Getty and Shutterstock Take on Uncertain AI Future Together

  Why AI Investors Should Worry About the Self-Driving Car Crash

  Japan Fires Starting Gun on Global Wave of Auto Mergers

  BMW Sales Fell in 2024 on Technical Issues, Weak China Demand

  JPMorgan Hosts First Major Healthcare Gathering Since Death of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO

  J&J to Acquire Intra-Cellular for About $14.6 Billion

  Moderna Cuts Sales View on Slow Demand for Covid, RSV Shots

  America’s Bourbon Boom Is Over. Now the Hangover Is Here.

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• Morning News: January 10, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 10th, 2025 at 7:01 am

  China’s Wobbly Economy Faces New Threat From Pensions Boycott

  China’s Central Bank Stops Buying Bonds as Deflation Fears Grip Economy

  Brazil Inflation Ticks Down But Ends 2024 Well Above Target

  Supreme Court Allows Trump Sentencing in NY Hush Money Case

  Beleaguered US Bond Market Looks to Jobs Report for Reprieve

  The Fed Is in No Rush to Cut Rates, Even if There Is a Weak Jobs Report

  Who’s Afraid of Rising Treasury Yields? Not Stocks

  Bankers Hope for IPO Revival in 2025 as High-Profile Listings Stack Up

  Deutsche Bank Tweaks Bonuses to Emphasize Metrics Like Teamwork

  Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?

  Meet Trump’s Economic Whisperers

  Politics, Not Climate, to Drive Sustainable Finance Trends in 2025

  How Trump Came Around to Crypto—and What Crypto Wants in Return

  Political Sway of the Rich Seen as Main Driver of Inequality, Pew Survey Finds

  U.S. Mortgage Rates Climb to Highest Since July

  L.A. Wildfires Lay Bare an Insurance Crisis

  As Los Angeles Fires Burn, Residents Turn to Nonprofit Watch Duty

  A New World for Facebook and Instagram: Zuckerberg’s Splinternet

  He Built Russia’s Biggest Tech Company. Now He’s Starting Over—Without Putin

  Constellation Energy to Acquire Calpine for $16.4 Billion

  Toxic Traces of Lead Mining in Missouri Are Hard to Erase

  Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin to Debut New Rocket in SpaceX Challenge

  TikTok Supreme Court Clash Pits Free Speech Against US Security

  If TikTok Is Banned, Can I Still Use It?

  Delta Tops Estimates on Demand for Overseas, Business Travel

  Mercedes-Benz Car Sales Fell 3% in 2024 Amid Challenging Market

  Why Food Companies Want Consumers to Buy More of Everything

  Why General Manager Is the Hottest Job in College Sports

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• Morning News: January 9, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 9th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  A Sinkhole Is Threatening to Consume Ecuador’s Main Source of Power

  Mexico’s Annual Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since Early 2021

  UK Market Selloff Deepens With Pound Falling to Lowest in Year

  Why Close Trade Partners China and Japan Can’t Get Along

  China’s DeepSeek Shows Why Trump’s Trade War Will Be Hard to Win

  Bankers Need the Right Trump Outcome to Justify Stock Optimism

  Banks Are Racking Up Wins Even Before Trump Is Back in White House

  Rate-Cut Decision Was Narrow, Fed Minutes Show

  Fed Finds New Reason for Confidence in Obscure Inflation Gauge

  The Stock Market is at the Same Valuation As When Greenspan Made His ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Comment

  What the Latest Bonds Selloff Could Mean for Your Money

  Wall Street Job Losses May Top 200,000 as AI Replaces Roles

  How Analyst Job Cuts on Wall Street Are Reshaping Equity Research

  FTC’s Khan Urges Agency to ‘Stay Aggressive’ After She Goes

  Biden Administration Ignites Firestorm With Rules Governing A.I.’s Global Spread

  Los Angeles Fires Become Existential Test for California’s Stopgap Insurer

  Powerful Labor Group Joins A.F.L.-C.I.O. Ahead of New Trump Era

  US Dockworkers, Employers Reach Deal to Avert Strike

  Warehouse Leasing Prices Are Holding Up Despite Declining Demand

  How Employee Referrals for Tech Jobs Became a Side Hustle

  Meta’s Disinterest in Fact Checking Will Change the Internet

  TikTok Stars and Marketers Brace for App’s Disappearance This Month

  TikTok Case Before Supreme Court Pits National Security Against Free Speech

  How Trump Could Vaporize 40% of Tesla’s Profits

  Self-Driving Cars Don’t Do Snow. Goodyear Says the Solution Is Smarter Tires.

  Inside the American Airlines Campaign to Win Back Business Travelers

  US ‘Notorious Markets’ Report Warns of Risks from Online Pharmacies

  As Art Sales Fall, Auction Houses Pivot to Luxury

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