Author Archive
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Morning News: March 28, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 28th, 2025 at 7:03 amXi Jinping Meets Global Business Leaders Amid Trade Tensions
Trump Could Hand China a ‘Strategic Victory’ by Silencing Voice of America
Europe’s Industrial Outlook Buoyed by Defense Drive
As Military Spending Soars, Demand for Spy-Proof Real Estate Booms
Trump’s Team Signal Chat Exposed US Spycraft to Adversaries
Obsessed With Greenland? You Too May Have the Wrong Map
In Europe, You Can Be Sued for Not Taking Action on Climate Change. In the U.S., It’s the Opposite.
Some European Nations Push for More Flexible 2025 Gas Storage Targets
Mining Company Seeks Trump Support to Shortcut Access to Seabed Metals
The Hunt for Critical Minerals Can’t Lead the US Astray
Nippon Steel Slumps on $7 Billion US Steel Investment Report
The Town That Went Crazy for Crypto
Value Stock Gains Need Fresh Catalyst With Earnings a Wild Card
A Missed Opportunity on VAT Haunts Trade War
U.S. Faces ‘Significant Risks’ From Debt, Analysts Say, as Trump Pursues Tax Agenda
Deal Slump Hits US High-Grade Bond Supply, Pressures Spreads
Trump’s Budget Chief Eyes Deep Cuts to ‘Woke and Weaponized’ Spending
The ‘Brocasters’ Have Listeners in a Chokehold
Trump’s Tariffs Leave Automakers With Tough, Expensive Choices
Trump Warned U.S. Automakers Not to Raise Prices in Response to Tariffs
U.S. Automobile Safety Regulator to Investigate Honda Engine Restart Complaints
The New Billionaires of the AI Boom
Efforts to Weed Out Fake Users for Online Advertisers Fall Short
Ubisoft Shares Climb After Tencent Backs Assassin’s Creed Carveout
Is Ozempic Really the Reason Americans Are Snacking Less?
Sundance Picks Its New Home: Boulder, Colorado
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Morning News: March 27, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 27th, 2025 at 7:05 amChina Pauses New Deals With Li Ka-shing Family After Panama Ports Plan
Why Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Panama Ports Deal Infuriates China
Why Trump Is Obsessed With Taking Over Greenland
Trump’s Auto Tariffs, Threats on Allies Intensify Trade War
Auto Stocks Tumble as Investors Assess Hit From Trump’s Tariffs
Trump Floats More EU, Canada Tariffs If They Work Against US
The UK Is a Hostage to Fortune in a World Roiled by Trump
Trade Policy Should Return to ‘Reason,’ Says ECB’s Villeroy
What Canada’s 300% Tariff on Dairy Imports Actually Means
Trump Floats Chinese Tariff Cuts in Exchange for TikTok Deal
Tariffs Won’t Bring a Boom in American Manufacturing
Trump and Musk Share the Founder’s Mindset
Government Contracting Is an Easy But Elusive Target
Elmo and Elon Musk Are Cited as G.O.P. Lawmakers Grill PBS and NPR
Climate Talk on S&P 500 Earnings Calls Drops by Three-Quarters
Economic Growth Now Depends on Electricity, Not Oil
This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market
Quitting Your Job Won’t Help You Get Paid More Money Right Now
UBS Declines as BofA Downgrades on Lack of Regulatory Clarity
Bankers Were Dreaming of M&A Riches Under Trump. It Hasn’t Worked Out, Yet
TikTok Billionaire Zhang Becomes China’s Richest Person
Facebook Memoir Spotlights Meta’s About-Face on China
OpenAI Close to Finalizing $40 Billion SoftBank-Led Funding
Indians Spend a Trillion Hours on Their Phones, Pushing a $29.4 Billion Media Industry
FedEx Needs to Open the Lid on Its International Black Box
Next’s Shares Jump on Guidance Upgrade Against Tough Sector Backdrop
H&M Earnings Miss Forecasts on Higher Discounts and Costs
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Morning News: March 26, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 26th, 2025 at 7:06 amKenya Ditches Dream for Balanced Budget as Revenue Lags Target
LGBTQ Discrimination Costs East African Nations $5 Billion a Year, Study Finds
BOJ Governor Suggests Food Inflation Could Lead to Rate Hike
India Is on a Hiring Binge That Trump’s Tariffs Can’t Stop
The Art of the Deal Meets a Four-Power Axis
Years of Climate Action Demolished in Days: A Timeline
Dolphin Hunting Is Their Tradition. Rising Seas Have Made It a Lifeline.
Trump’s Tariff War Forces Allies to Choose Resistance or Surrender
Trump Weighs Imposing Copper Import Tariffs in Weeks, Not Months
U.S. Adds Export Restrictions to More Chinese Tech Firms Over Security Concerns
Why the Fed Wants to Keep More US Government Debt
US Stock Market Liquidity Drying Up as Trade War Concerns Mount
The Signal Leak Is Too Big to Sweep Under the Rug
Wall Street Bonus Pool Surges to a Record $47.5 Billion for 2024
Half of American Households Hold 97.5% of the National Wealth
Private Equity Is Coming for America’s $12 Trillion in Retirement Savings
Corporate America’s Euphoria Over Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ Is Giving Way to Distress
At Paul Weiss, Panic, Poachers and a Fight for the Bottom Line
Shell Shocked: How Small Eateries Are Dealing With Record Egg Prices
Phillips 66 Proposes New Board Members Amid Elliott Battle
French Tax Authorities Are Using AI to Clamp Down on Tax Fraud
Catastrophe Experts Tap AI to Tackle Soaring Insured Losses
With a U.S. Ban Looming, TikTok Portrays Itself as a Force for Good
Europe Rapidly Falling Behind China in Pharma, AstraZeneca CEO Warns
Dollar Tree to Sell Struggling Family Dollar for $1 Billion
‘Trump Slump’ Looms as Foreign Visitors Rethink Travel to U.S.
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CWS Market Review – March 25, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2025 at 5:11 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
Here are some stats to consider: Since 1966, the S&P 500 has had 12 bull markets and 12 bear markets. Over that time, the market has been in a bull market 80.2% of the time, and in a bear market the other 19.8% of the time.
During bull markets, the index has had an annualized average gain of 21.2% per year. In bear markets, it’s lost an average of 35.5% per year. Notice how the bear markets are short but sharp while the bulls are long and slow. That’s one of the important truths about investing.
Here’s another way of thinking about it. Imagine that instead of investing, you went to a special roulette table once a year on December 31. This roulette table, however, has some unusual rules.
At our roulette table, you have an 80% chance of making 20% on your money for the coming year, and a 20% chance of losing one-third of your money for the year.
You may not think this is a very comforting game since you have a very real chance of losing one-third of your money in any given year.
While this roulette is a product of my imagination, the payoffs are close to accurate, and, as in real investing, the key strategy is to keep playing the game because the odds are very much in your favor. That’s why so much of successful investing comes down to doing little and waiting. For some people, that’s too much to bear.
It’s easy to be reminded of this as the stock market recently had a very quick correction. The S&P 500 lost just over 10% in 16 trading days. I see plenty of folks debating whether we’re in a bear market or not, yet the market has already made back nearly half of what it lost.
This year’s bear market began five years to the date after the fantastic Covid-induced plunge of 2020. Five years ago, the market gave us a 20% surge in just three days, but 25 years ago, the market peaked on March 24, 2000. We didn’t reach another new high for 13 years.
SAIC Rallies on Earnings Beat
Two weeks ago, I told you about Science Applications International (SAIC) which is one of our Buy List stocks. I highlighted the company because the business performance has been quite good, but the stock has taken a big hit, especially since election day. I always pay attention when good stocks are taken down, especially for transient reasons.
Many investors suspected that SAIC’s contracts would be under the knife thanks to the new Department of Government Efficiency, but that’s an exaggerated threat. SAIC does so many things for the Pentagon. In fact, SAIC is ultimately a money saver for the DOD.
In September, SAIC reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.05 per share. That was a 20-cent beat. Then in December, it reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $2.61 per share. That was a 44-cent beat.
Yet the stock started to fall since election day. In November, SAIC was as high as $156 per share. Earlier this month, it dropped down to $95 per share. This is when prudent stock shoppers take notice.
We’ve been paying close attention to SAIC, and we’ve seen several reasons to keep the faith. For example, in December, SAIC’s board of directors authorized a buyback of $1.2 billion. That’s a strong show of confidence. At the end of last quarter, SAIC’s estimated backlog was approximately $22.4 billion.
SAIC had also raised its guidance. The company projected full-year earnings between $8.50 and $8.65 per share. That’s a big increase over the previous guidance range of $8.10 to $8.30 per share.
That brings us to the recent earnings report. For the year so far, SAIC has made $6.56 per share. That means the guidance implied Q4 earnings of $1.94 to $2.09 per share. Two weeks ago, I wrote, “I think there’s a good chance we’ll see an upside surprise.”
I was right.
Last Monday, SAIC said it made $2.57 per share. That’s up from $1.43 per share the year before. Quarterly revenues increased 5.8% to $1.84 billion.
For the year, SAIC made $9.13 per share. That’s up from $7.88 per share the prior year. The company had free cash flow of $499 million.
SAIC also raised guidance for the new fiscal year. The company now sees FY 2026 revenues ranging between $7.6 billion and $7.75 billion. That’s an increase of $50 million to the low end.
SAIC raised its full-year earnings guidance for the coming year to $9.10 to $9.30 per share. That’s an increase of 20 cents to both ends. On Monday after the earnings report, the stock rallied more than 7% for us. The stock closed today nearly 15% above its low from earlier this month. This is another good example of why it’s good to stand by high-quality stocks that run into a little trouble.
By the way, I talk more about our Buy List stocks like SAIC in our premium version which you can sign-up for here.
Consumer Confidence Plunges to 12-Year Low
Wall Street got an unpleasant shock this morning when a report on consumer sentiment dropped sharply. The Conference Board said its measure for future expectations fell 9.6 points to 65.2. That’s the lowest reading since late 2013. Traditionally, any reading below 80 has signaled that a recession is on its way.
The measure for current conditions fell 7.2 points to 92.9. Economists had been expecting a drop to 93.5. That was the index’s fourth monthly drop in a row.
I can’t say I’m completely surprised by this news. Just look at the stock market over the past month, and you can see that investors are clearly nervous. The report also shows that only 37.4% of respondents expect the stock market to be higher one year from today. That’s a drop of 10% in the last month. It’s also the first time that most investors are pessimistic since late 2023.
I’m a firm believer that the stock market is a driver of consumer spending (though not the only driver). Happy stocks make happy shoppers.
I looked at Polymarket today which is a site where you can bet on real world events. Bettors currently think there’s a 33% chance of a recession starting later this year. Bettors also expect growth for Q1 GDP to be about 1%. That’s not so good.
Traders think that the Fed will soon be back to cutting interest rates. The latest expectations are that the Fed will cut twice more this year, and there’s nearly a perfect 50-50 split on the need for a third rate cut.
On the plus side, today’s new homes sales report showed a modest rebound last month. The Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 1.8% to an annualized rate of 676,000. The numbers for January were revised higher as well.
Is the U.S. stock market out of its hole? That’s hard to say. The correction was swift, and we’ve already made nearly half of it back. One good item is that the stock market just barely tipped above its 200-day moving average. This is a dumb rule that has a pretty good track record. Historically, the market has done much better when it’s traded above its 200-DMA compared to when it’s below the 200-DMA. Still, I don’t think we’re in the clear just yet.
The next big test for the market will come next Friday, April 4, with the March jobs report. The labor market has shown a little weakness lately but nothing alarming. At least, not yet.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: March 25, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2025 at 7:07 amChina’s Central Bank Tweaks Lending Tool in Sign of Policy Shift
China Frees Employees of U.S. Consulting Firm After 2-Year Detention
German Business Confidence Climbs After Lawmakers Unlock Spending Increase
In His Second Term, Trump Fuels a ‘Machinery’ of Misinformation
Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades
Trump’s Threat of ‘Secondary Tariffs’ Invents New Trade Weapon
Europe Should Hold Its Fire in Coming Tariff War
Potatoes, Shrimp and Teslas: Exporters Vie to Shape Trump’s Tariffs
UBS Top Strategist Sees Consumer Slowdown Hitting the S&P 500
US Consumers Slow Spending as Inflation Bites, Synchrony Says
U.S. Infrastructure Improves, but Cuts May Imperil Progress, Report Says
Trump, Big Law, and an ‘Existential Crisis’
Has the Decline of Knowledge Work Begun?
PBS and NPR Prepare for Showdown With Congress
China’s AI Push Turns Tech Titans Into National Champions
Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs
Emboldened by Trump, A.I. Companies Lobby for Fewer Rules
Google Is Searching for an Answer to ChatGPT
Shell to Increase Production, Shareholder Returns Under New Strategy
Boeing Gets Lifeline in Pentagon Deal to Build Most Expensive Jet Fighter Ever
Boeing Is Pushing to Withdraw Guilty Plea Agreement
Cathie Wood Sticks With Tesla, Predicts Stock to Hit $2,600
Tesla’s No.1 Rival Is Practically Taunting Elon Musk Now
Toyota Was Bullish on Trump. Then Came the Tariff Threats.
Hyundai to Invest $21 Billion in U.S. in Bid to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs
Mexico Should Roll Out the Asphalt Carpet for BYD
23andMe’s Bankruptcy Puts 15 Million Users’ DNA Info on Auction Block
The World’s Largest Whiskey Market Prepares for Trump Tariffs
Let Consumers Decide Whether to Eat Lab-Grown Meat
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Morning News: March 24, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2025 at 7:00 amRussia and the US Both Want to Finlandize the World
China Saves Fiscal Power for Trade War as Spending Progress Lags
Billion-Dollar US Levies on Chinese Ships Risk ‘Trade Apocalypse’
Europe’s Economic Activity Grows Weakly as Tariffs Loom
Germany Confirms Second-Quarter Debt Issuance of €92.5 Billion
U.K. Budget Could Dent Sterling on Any Missteps
Elliott Builds Stake in Japan’s Sumitomo Realty & Development
Under Pressure to Raise Wages, Japan’s Smaller Firms Get Creative
Farmers, Dockhands and Shipowners Fight Against U.S. Fees on Chinese Ships
US Treasuries Fall on Signs That Trump Will Dilute April Tariffs
Data-Hungry Investors Dive Deep for Economic Clues
The Economic Data Is as Cloudy as the Outlook
Dollar Weakness Becomes Profit Boon for US Multinationals
U.S. Could Run Out of Cash by July, Analysis Finds
Tariff Exclusion Hopes Prop Up Markets
Risky Bonds Aren’t So Risky in the Long Run
Smart-Money Crowd Feels Squeeze of Higher Equity-Funding Costs
US Banking Rule Reform Is Too Important to Rush
He Was Apollo’s Mr. Fix-It. Now He’s Trump’s Pick to Police Wall Street
Spec Homes Sitting on the Market Pose Potential Economic Drag
Americans Are Rushing to Get Off the Grid
Australia’s Gold Road Rejects $2.1 Billion Takeover Offer From Gold Fields
Jack Ma-Backed Ant Touts AI Breakthrough Using Chinese Chips
US Tech Manufacturing Efforts Run Smack Into Wright’s Law
Ford’s Fat Dividend Could be a Casualty of Tariffs
Novo Signs $2 Billion Deal With United Labs for Obesity Drug
Bayer Shares Plunge After U.S. Court Defeat in Roundup Case
23andMe Starts Chapter 11 Process, Co-Founder Steps Down as CEO
James Hardie Agrees to Buy AZEK for $8.75 Billion
Why Does Big Bird Look So Sad?
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Morning News: March 21, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 21st, 2025 at 5:45 amJapan Inflation Slows But Uptrend Backs Case for Rate Hikes
China’s Government Is Short of Money as Its Leaders Face Trump
Russia Touts Economic Opportunities. Western Companies Are Wary.
Today’s Autocrat Has No Liberal West to Blame
Europe Is Short of Gunpowder and TNT When It Needs Them Most
Why the Shipping Industry Isn’t Rushing Back to the Red Sea
French Factories Remain Under Tariff Cloud as Hopes Grow for Defense Boost
Tracking Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect
Why the Fed’s Job May Get a Lot More Difficult
Rio Tinto Has ‘Strong Desire’ to Invest More in U.S., Copper Chief Says
Frackers, Once Jubilant, Are Unnerved by Trump’s First Weeks in Office
Trump to Expand Critical Mineral Output Using Wartime Powers
From Ford to Musk, the Perils of Trying to Build a Global Auto Empire
Tesla Recalls Most Cybertrucks Due to Trim Detaching from Vehicle
Musk Asks Tesla Employees to Hang On to Stock Despite 40% Drop
Elon Musk Gets Ready to Enter the Restaurant Business
Home Sales Rose 4.2% in February, Beating Expectations
What Happens to Student Loans if the Education Dept. Closes?
Mar-a-Lago, or Much Ado That Might Never Happen
The New American Travel Anxiety: ‘Will They Hate Us?’
One Man’s Crypto Windfall Is Funding a $1 Billion Space Station Dream
Meituan Nearly Triples Profit Despite Competition
Wine Connoisseurs Freeze Purchases Over Trump’s 200% Tariff Risk
Ben & Jerry’s Founders Say They Stand Behind Ousted CEO
How Bryan Johnson, Who Wants to Live Forever, Sought Control via Confidentiality Agreements
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Morning News: March 20, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 20th, 2025 at 7:05 amA New ‘China Shock’ Is Destroying Jobs Around the World
Taiwan Central Bank Leaves Key Interest Rates Unchanged
Swiss Central Bank Cuts Key Rate While Sweden’s Riksbank Holds
Hold the Obituary: Europe Comes to Life as U.S. Stumbles
Higher Tariffs Would Raise Inflation, Slow Growth, ECB’s Lagarde Says
The Word Executives Are Using to Describe Trump’s Tariff Policy
Debt Issuance by Governments of Rich Countries to Hit Record High, OECD Says
Powell Downplays Growing Risks, Sees Tariff Impact as Transitory
What the Fed’s Rate Policy Means for Your Finances
The Fed Is Clueless, Too. And That’s OK
Hapag-Lloyd Expects Earnings to Sink This Year in Stormy Market Conditions
Treasuries Extend Gains From Fed as Market Bets on Lower Rates
SNB Won’t Follow Trump’s Crypto Reserves Push, Schlegel Says
Crypto Exchange Kraken Strikes $1.5 Billion Deal for Futures Trading Business
BlackRock Bets on Consumer Push as it Chases European Savers
Citi’s Private Equity ‘Club’ Underwhelmed Billionaire Members
USAID Ruling May Be Beginning of the End for Musk
Meet Elon Musk’s Top Lieutenant Who Oversees DOGE
Larry Ellison Joins the Billionaires Reshaping Florida Real Estate
Signs of an Office Market Bottom: ‘The Worst Is Probably Over’
How the AI Boom Created the Most Valuable Monopolies in History
Cow Wearables Help America’s Dairy Farmers Detect Bird Flu and Other Illnesses
Temu Owner PDD Posts Slowest Revenue Growth Since Early 2022
Swiss Watch Exports Report a Marked Slowdown
Nike Killshot Is the Next Adidas Samba
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Morning News: March 19, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 19th, 2025 at 7:09 amTrump Has Hinted at a Xi Visit. China Is Still Wondering What He Wants.
Threatening Canada Is More Putin Than Reagan
Bank of Japan Leaves Rates Steady as U.S. Uncertainty Heightens
Turkish Markets Nosedive After Erdogan’s Main Rival Detained
Indonesia’s Central Bank Stands Pat as Expected Amid Volatility
Eurozone Inflation Cooler Than Thought, Underscoring Sluggish Economy
E.U. Hatches a Plan to Lure Investors Back to Europe
Irish Economic Outlook Hit by Tariff Uncertainty, Central Bank Says
Close to 5,000 ESG Funds in Europe Now Hold Oil, Gas and Coal
Farmers Have Fair Trade Complaints, but Tariffs Are a Bigger Worry
The 1960s ‘Chicken Tax’ Shows the Lasting Impact of Tariffs
As Debt Ceiling Looms, the Fed Considers Tweaking Its Portfolio Runoff
Does the Fed Share the Stock Market’s Worry About the Economy?
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s March Meeting
DOGE Just Might Usher In New Era of Big Government
‘Will I Lose My Job?’ Federal Workers Flock to Reddit for Answers.
How TD Became America’s Most Convenient Bank for Money Launderers
Cathie Wood Sells Meta Shares for First Time in Nearly a Year
Samsung Vows to Reclaim Ground in AI Memory Market With Rollout
Tencent’s Revenue Growth Accelerates on Robust Gaming Business
Advanced Instruments to Buy Nova Biomedical From Founding Shareholders in $2.2 Billion Deal
Ben & Jerry’s Says CEO Fired by Unilever on Political Stance
Mom, the Brands Are Fighting Again
At Forever 21, the Adrenaline Rush Was the Point
Nike Returns to Sports While Investors Impatiently Await Reset
In Japan, Shohei Ohtani Is a National Hero and Marketer’s Dream
San Francisco Giants Sell Stake to Private Equity
Hollywood Filmmaker Charged With $11 Million Conspiracy to Defraud Netflix
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Morning News: March 18, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 18th, 2025 at 7:04 amHong Kong Piles On to Beijing’s Growing Criticism of Panama Canal Deal
European Central Bank May Need Fresh Cuts as Trade Turmoil Burdens Growth, Rehn Says
German Economic Sentiment Climbs After Politicians Pledge Ramp-Up in Spending
Pete Hegseth Is Closing a Pentagon Office That Wins Wars
Gold Rises to Record on Middle East Tension, US Economy Concerns
U.S. Tariff Increases to Slow Global Economy, Boost Inflation, OECD Says
White House Tries to Restore Order to Disruptive Tariff Rollout
For Importers Rushing to Beat Tariffs, It’s Life on the Edge
Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree.
Bessent Sees No Reason for Recession, Economic Data ‘Healthy’
Trump Nominates Federal Reserve Governor Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision
Powell Contends With Double Threat of Economic Chaos and Political Hostility
Elon Musk’s Starlink Expands Across White House Complex
DOGE’s Real Goal Is Privatizing Government
Nasdaq Plans Second U.S. Headquarters in Texas
Overnight Trading Gains Steam as Clearing Firm to Extend Hours
JPMorgan Stock Traders Reel In Windfall as Trump Whipsaws Market
Ukrainian Telecom Group Kyivstar to Go Public on Nasdaq at $2.21 Billion Valuation
Nvidia Is Hosting the Super Bowl of A.I.
From Courtrooms to Crisis Lines, Chinese Officials Embrace DeepSeek
Xiaomi’s Quarterly Net Profit Soars 90% on Record Revenue
Trump’s Unwelcome News to Auto Chiefs: Buckle Up for What’s to Come
XPeng Guides for Surging Revenue, EV Sales as Loss Narrows
Cheap Chinese Cars Are Taking Over Roads From Brazil to South Africa
Congo’s Cobalt Ban Is Rooted in China’s Cheap EV Bonanza
AirAsia to Keep Cutting Prices, Grow Fleet to Get Revenue Flying Again
P&G Takes Lead in 95-Year Rivalry With Unilever
Community Notes Can’t Save Social Media From Itself
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