Author Archive

• Morning News: January 13, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 13th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  Chinese Trade Surplus Soars to $1 Trillion Ahead of Trump Return

  China Policy Focus to Shift More to Consumption, PBOC’s Pan Says

  Israel Raised Record Amount of Bonds Last Year to Pay For War

  Oil Hits Five-Month High as US Sanctions on Russia Menace Supply

  US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame

  Colombia’s Bold Push to Go Green Has an Unintended Trade Off: Gas Imports

  ECB Must Find ‘Middle Path’ on Rate Cuts, Chief Economist Says

  Treasuries Selloff Ripples Through World Markets After Jobs Data

  Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome Start to New Year

  Doubting America Can Still Cost You a Lot of Money

  Why 2025 May Be the Year of Common Sense

  A US Hedge Fund Put UK Trusts on Notice. Good.

  Ackman’s Pershing Square Proposes Merger With Howard Hughes

  Inside Elon Musk’s Plan for DOGE to Slash Government Costs

  How Unauthorized Immigrants Help Finance Social Security Benefits

  iPhone Sales Drop 5% in Holiday Quarter After AI Disappoints

  Biden Administration Adopts Rules to Guide A.I.’s Global Spread

  OpenAI Courts Trump With Vision for ‘A.I. in America’

  Getty and Shutterstock Take on Uncertain AI Future Together

  Why AI Investors Should Worry About the Self-Driving Car Crash

  Japan Fires Starting Gun on Global Wave of Auto Mergers

  BMW Sales Fell in 2024 on Technical Issues, Weak China Demand

  JPMorgan Hosts First Major Healthcare Gathering Since Death of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO

  J&J to Acquire Intra-Cellular for About $14.6 Billion

  Moderna Cuts Sales View on Slow Demand for Covid, RSV Shots

  America’s Bourbon Boom Is Over. Now the Hangover Is Here.

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• Morning News: January 10, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 10th, 2025 at 7:01 am

  China’s Wobbly Economy Faces New Threat From Pensions Boycott

  China’s Central Bank Stops Buying Bonds as Deflation Fears Grip Economy

  Brazil Inflation Ticks Down But Ends 2024 Well Above Target

  Supreme Court Allows Trump Sentencing in NY Hush Money Case

  Beleaguered US Bond Market Looks to Jobs Report for Reprieve

  The Fed Is in No Rush to Cut Rates, Even if There Is a Weak Jobs Report

  Who’s Afraid of Rising Treasury Yields? Not Stocks

  Bankers Hope for IPO Revival in 2025 as High-Profile Listings Stack Up

  Deutsche Bank Tweaks Bonuses to Emphasize Metrics Like Teamwork

  Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?

  Meet Trump’s Economic Whisperers

  Politics, Not Climate, to Drive Sustainable Finance Trends in 2025

  How Trump Came Around to Crypto—and What Crypto Wants in Return

  Political Sway of the Rich Seen as Main Driver of Inequality, Pew Survey Finds

  U.S. Mortgage Rates Climb to Highest Since July

  L.A. Wildfires Lay Bare an Insurance Crisis

  As Los Angeles Fires Burn, Residents Turn to Nonprofit Watch Duty

  A New World for Facebook and Instagram: Zuckerberg’s Splinternet

  He Built Russia’s Biggest Tech Company. Now He’s Starting Over—Without Putin

  Constellation Energy to Acquire Calpine for $16.4 Billion

  Toxic Traces of Lead Mining in Missouri Are Hard to Erase

  Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin to Debut New Rocket in SpaceX Challenge

  TikTok Supreme Court Clash Pits Free Speech Against US Security

  If TikTok Is Banned, Can I Still Use It?

  Delta Tops Estimates on Demand for Overseas, Business Travel

  Mercedes-Benz Car Sales Fell 3% in 2024 Amid Challenging Market

  Why Food Companies Want Consumers to Buy More of Everything

  Why General Manager Is the Hottest Job in College Sports

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• Morning News: January 9, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 9th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  A Sinkhole Is Threatening to Consume Ecuador’s Main Source of Power

  Mexico’s Annual Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since Early 2021

  UK Market Selloff Deepens With Pound Falling to Lowest in Year

  Why Close Trade Partners China and Japan Can’t Get Along

  China’s DeepSeek Shows Why Trump’s Trade War Will Be Hard to Win

  Bankers Need the Right Trump Outcome to Justify Stock Optimism

  Banks Are Racking Up Wins Even Before Trump Is Back in White House

  Rate-Cut Decision Was Narrow, Fed Minutes Show

  Fed Finds New Reason for Confidence in Obscure Inflation Gauge

  The Stock Market is at the Same Valuation As When Greenspan Made His ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Comment

  What the Latest Bonds Selloff Could Mean for Your Money

  Wall Street Job Losses May Top 200,000 as AI Replaces Roles

  How Analyst Job Cuts on Wall Street Are Reshaping Equity Research

  FTC’s Khan Urges Agency to ‘Stay Aggressive’ After She Goes

  Biden Administration Ignites Firestorm With Rules Governing A.I.’s Global Spread

  Los Angeles Fires Become Existential Test for California’s Stopgap Insurer

  Powerful Labor Group Joins A.F.L.-C.I.O. Ahead of New Trump Era

  US Dockworkers, Employers Reach Deal to Avert Strike

  Warehouse Leasing Prices Are Holding Up Despite Declining Demand

  How Employee Referrals for Tech Jobs Became a Side Hustle

  Meta’s Disinterest in Fact Checking Will Change the Internet

  TikTok Stars and Marketers Brace for App’s Disappearance This Month

  TikTok Case Before Supreme Court Pits National Security Against Free Speech

  How Trump Could Vaporize 40% of Tesla’s Profits

  Self-Driving Cars Don’t Do Snow. Goodyear Says the Solution Is Smarter Tires.

  Inside the American Airlines Campaign to Win Back Business Travelers

  US ‘Notorious Markets’ Report Warns of Risks from Online Pharmacies

  As Art Sales Fall, Auction Houses Pivot to Luxury

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• Morning News: January 8, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 8th, 2025 at 7:03 am

  India Fixing Record Trade Deficit After Overstating Gold Imports

  Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in China

  What to Know About BRICS and Its Growing Clout

  Eurozone Business Confidence Declines Again, Dragged by Industry

  Musk Takes Slash-and-Burn Style to Europe After Bolstering Trump

  Musk Escalates Fight With EU Over Free Speech, Election Fairness

  Under Trump, More Countries Could Get Nukes

  Tax Cuts or the Border? Republicans Wrestle Over Priorities.

  Trump Trade Team Set for Wild Ride as Boss Floats Denmark Levies

  Beaten-Down European Stocks Lure Investors Back as Trump Trades Wobble

  Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank

  Bond-Yield Breakout Is Much More Than Inflation

  Amundi’s Bond Chief Says US 10-Year Yield Can Exceed 5% Again

  Ackman Chases 1,200% Profit on Trump Trade That’s Far From Over

  More Companies Are Buying Bitcoin, Betting on Rewards Over Risks

  Venture Capital Needs a New Math. Try This Formula.

  Tencent Makes Biggest Buyback Since 2006 After US Blacklist

  Meet the Next Fact-Checker, Debunker and Moderator: You

  Mark Zuckerberg’s Political Evolution, From Apologies to No More Apologies

  Be Wary of Sam Altman’s AI Doublespeak

  The US Government Is Sitting on a Possible Solution to the Housing Crisis

  Shell Warns of Significantly Lower Integrated Gas Earnings, Cuts Production Guidance

  Toyota Takes Aim at SpaceX With Investment in Rocket Startup

  An Offsets Rumble in the Jungle

  Chick-fil-A’s Lemon-Squeezing Robots Are Saving 10,000 Hours of Work

  New Warnings About Alcohol Hit Restaurants at a Tricky Time

  Former MoviePass Executive Pleads Guilty to Fraud Over ‘Unlimited’ Plan

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• CWS Market Review – January 7, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 7th, 2025 at 6:17 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The stock market has started off the new year a bit more cautious than it was last year. The S&P 500 fell for five days in a row before it rallied last Friday. The index has now gone one month without making a new high. Of course, this is fairly normal market behavior, but it’s markedly different from what we experienced last year. In 2024, the S&P 500 made 57 record highs.

  

  During December, growth stocks strongly outpaced value stocks. This was probably in anticipation of the Federal Reserve dialing back its plans to lower interest rates. During the final trading week of the year, value stocks started to improve somewhat in relative terms, but that came to a halt with the new year. Growth stocks have again been leading value.

  Earnings Season Starts Next Week

  The next big test for the market will be Q4 earnings season which is set to begin soon. Next Wednesday, January 15, is the unofficial start to earnings season. That’s when several of the major banks, like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are due to report.

  Note that companies tend to report their Q4 earnings a bit later than their other quarters. I suppose it takes a little more time to compute their full-year results.

  Wall Street currently expects the S&P 500 to report Q4 earnings growth of 8.81%. That’s down some from last month when expectations were for 9.02% growth. Within the index, the increases have been among consumer staples and consumer discretionaries. The lower estimates have been among industrials.

  At the end of the month, the government will release its first estimates for Q4 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model currently expects growth of 2.4% for Q4 (that’s annualized and adjusted for inflation). That sounds about right. What’s interesting is that it wasn’t too long ago that many folks on Wall Street assumed that we’d be mired in a recession by 2024, but it looks like we avoided one.

  There’s more data to come this week. Tomorrow we’ll get the ADP payroll report and Wall Street doesn’t expect much. The consensus is for a gain of 136,000 private sector jobs.

  The stock market will be closed on Thursday in honor of President Carter’s funeral. On Friday, we’ll get the official January jobs report from the Labor Department. The consensus is for a gain of 155,000 nonfarm payrolls. I think the market is being modest with its expectations. Economists also expect the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%. Historically speaking, that’s still quite low.

  I’m particularly concerned with wages. The consensus expects average hourly earnings to have increased by 0.3% last month and for a 12-month gain of 4%. Frankly, that needs to improve. Wages are rising faster than inflation, but not by much. Wage gains are future revenue for businesses.

  Next week, on January 15, we’ll also get the CPI report for December. This could be an important announcement. While the Fed has been largely successful in battling inflation, it hasn’t won the war just yet. Inflation is proving to be very stubborn. In fact, inflation has accelerated very slightly over the last few months. In other words, not only are prices rising but the pace of those increases has been rising.

  Where does this leave the Federal Reserve? Well, that’s a good question. The Fed meets again in three weeks, and it’s looking like the Fed is going to pause on its rate hikes. I can’t blame them. Housing inflation is especially concerning.

  According to traders, the Fed will pause next week, and there’s a better than even chance that it also pauses at the following two meetings, in March and May. That means the Fed may not cut rates again until the middle of the year. This is a major change from a few weeks ago, and it’s why I think growth stocks have been doing so well.

  Today, President-elect Donald Trump announced a $20 billion foreign investment to build new data centers in the United States. The money will be put up by Hussain Sajwani, the founder of DAMAC Properties. Trump added that Sajwani could double that figure or go even higher.

  From CNBC:

  The “first phase” of the plan will take place in Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana, Trump said.

  Sajwani suggested that the Republican’s election spurred him to commit to the investment.

  “It’s been amazing news for me and my family when [Trump] was elected in November. We’ve been waiting four years to increase our investment in [the] U.S. to very large amounts of money,” the Dubai developer said in brief remarks at Mar-a-Lago.

  Sajwani’s pledge is the latest example of a foreign business leader promising to spend big in the U.S. as a result of Trump’s victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

  Last month, Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son announced plans to invest $100 billion in America and create 100,000 jobs over the course of Trump’s four-year term.

  Speaking of data centers, I can’t help noticing that IES Industries (IESC), one of our new stocks on the Buy List, got off to a strong start this year. At one point earlier today, IESC was up more than 23% on the year.

  The company “designs and installs integrated electrical and technology systems and provides infrastructure products and services to a variety of end markets, including data centers, residential housing, and commercial and industrial facilities.”

  We shouldn’t celebrate too soon. IESC closed lower today even though it was higher this morning. That’s the thing about investing in growth stocks: the good times are great, and the bad times are terrible.

  Stepan Hits a New 52-Week Low

  Recently shares of Stepan (SCL) reached a new 52-week low. With most stocks, that’s disconcerting news, but with a company like Stepan, it grabs my interest. Bear in mind that Stepan has increased its dividend every year for the last 57 years.

  

  Stepan is a special chemical market. I know, super boring, but they make stuff that people need. Stepan makes basic and intermediate chemicals, including surfactants, specialty products, phthalic anhydride and polyurethane polyols.

  Surfactants are used in cleaning agents and consumer products like detergents, toothpaste, and cosmetics.

  Stepan’s surfactants also have commercial and industrial applications ranging from emulsifiers for agricultural insecticides to agents used in oil recovery. The company also makes phthalic anhydride and other polymers for food and pharmaceutical uses.

  Stepan had a strong Q3 earnings report. For the quarter, Stepan made $1.03 per share which was far ahead of Wall Street’s estimate for 65 cents per share.

  President and CEO Luis E. Rojo said, “Team Stepan delivered a solid quarter despite significant challenges. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA grew double digits driven by the Surfactant and Specialty Product businesses. Surfactants continued its volume recovery and experienced double-digit volume growth within the Agricultural, Oilfield and the Construction and Industrial Solutions end markets and also with our Distribution partners.”

  For this year, Wall Street expects Stepan to make $4 per share. That’s based on only three analysts. Even if that is correct, it means that Stepan is going for less than 16 times this year’s earnings.

  In October, Stepan raised its quarterly dividend by one penny to 38.5 cents per share. That was its 57th annual dividend increase in a row. The dividend currently yields 2.4%. I wouldn’t say that Stepan is a fast-grower, but it’s a conservative stock with a long-term track record.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: January 7, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 7th, 2025 at 7:03 am

  Eurozone Inflation Climbs Further Above ECB Target

  French Banks Face Crucial Year After Falling Behind Peers

  Canada Tilts Right: Inflation Claims Trudeau as Its Latest Victim

  Trudeau’s Climate Legacy

  Why Would Trump Buy Greenland When He Can Rent It?

  Fed Vice Chair Says He’s Leaving Role Early to Avoid Fight With Trump

  Trump’s SEC Pick Likely to Give Wall Street Easier Enforcement Ride

  Unable to Protect Consumers, the CFPB Scapegoats the Banks

  Medical Debt Soon Will Be Banned on Credit Reports

  Credit Markets Signal Warning for a Relentless Equity Rally

  Markets Better Get Used to Trump’s Manic Mondays

  Bitcoin Is Not a Nothing, But Not a Something Either

  This Fund Manager Forecast a 20% S&P 500 Gain Last Year. Now He Says Cash Is King.

  Robots Fill Workforce Gap in Korea’s Aging Society

  Google’s Most Serious Rival Isn’t Microsoft. It’s a Startup.

  Apple Faces Tough January as China Weakness, Tariff Risks Weigh

  Meta Moves to End Fact-Checking Program

  The Next Chapter in the Amazon-Trump Reset

  Pentagon Adds Chinese Social Media Giant to Military Blacklist

  What Happens When TikTok’s Trend Machine Shuts Down?

  Nvidia Unveils Gaming Chips, Desktop PC to Protect AI Lead

  U.S. Steel and Nippon Sue Biden Over Decision to Block Merger

  Musk’s Massive Tesla Lithium Plant Hunts for Water in Drought-Hit Texas

  These EV ‘Battery Belt’ Towns Are Betting Trump Won’t Ditch Them

  Getty Images to Acquire Shutterstock to Create $3.7 Billion Firm

  Whirlpool’s Answer to Inflation: Charging More for Fewer Parts and Less Paint

  Cintas Makes $5.1 Billion Takeover Offer for Uniform Supplier UniFirst

  Luxury Brands Need to Get Over Their Youth Fixation to Offset Drag From Trump’s Tariffs

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• Morning News: January 6, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 6th, 2025 at 7:04 am

  China Services Activity Gauge Signals Pickup in Growth

  Xi Says China Must Win ‘Tough, Protracted’ Fight Against Graft

  Trump’s Trash Talk Revives the Worst of World Politics

  Prospects for Global Rate Cuts in the Shadow of Trump

  Euro Zone Investor Morale Falls in January to Lowest in More than a Year

  Your Happy New Year Depends on Trump and Inflation

  Gold Extends Drop After Fed Officials Express Inflation Concern

  Dollar Falls Most in Two Months on Report Trump to Limit Tariffs

  Is This Bitcoin’s Golden Moment? These Are 3 Key Things to Watch for Cryptos in 2025

  US Yields Hit 14-Month High Before $119 Billion of Debt Sales

  Three Ways the Fed’s Message Falls Short – and How to Fix Them

  Citadel Extends Non-Compete to 21 Months to Retain Talent

  In 2025, Accounting Rulemaker to Explore Non-GAAP and R&D Spending

  Nippon Steel, US Steel File Lawsuits After Biden Blocks Deal

  Value of CES Is Found Far From the Exhibits on Convention Floor

  Nvidia Investors Look to Huang CES Speech to Spark Next Breakout

  Sam Altman on ChatGPT’s First Two Years, Elon Musk and AI Under Trump

  Global Chip Stocks Climb as Foxconn’s Bumper Results Show a Continuation of the AI Boom

  Exodus by Wall Street Banks from Climate Group Worries Advocates

  Data Centers Need to Look Beyond Green Energy, Siemens Executive Says

  Unemployed Office Workers Are Having a Harder Time Finding New Jobs

  Health Care Is UPS’ $20 Billion Lifeline to Offset Shipping Slowdown

  The Challenge for Made-in-America Bikes? Made-in-China Parts

  Volkswagen and Xpeng to Build Super-Fast Charging Network in China for EVs

  Disney Nears Deal to Merge Hulu + Live into Fubo

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• Morning News: January 3, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 3rd, 2025 at 7:03 am

  Are Russian Sanctions Working? Debate Gains New Urgency With Trump.

  China Lets Yuan Weaken After Defending 7.3 Per Dollar for Weeks

  China Will Sharply Increase Funding from Treasury Bonds to Spur Growth in 2025

  Emerging Markets Diverge in 2025 on Growth, Rate Expectations

  Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Makes $1.07 Billion US Real Estate Transaction

  Trump Says Britain is ‘Making a Very Big Mistake’ with Windfall Tax on North Sea Oil Producers

  America Still Leads the World in All the Ways That Matter

  Economy in Counties Trump Won Points to Governing Challenges

  Reserves at Fed Sink Below $3 Trillion to the Lowest Since 2020

  Don’t Fear the Froth. Stay Invested Even If Stocks Are Overvalued.

  BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Posts Record Outflow After Banner Year

  Biden Blocks Sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel

  The Fallout From the End of the U.S. Steel Deal

  Richard A. Easterlin, ‘Father of Happiness Economics,’ Dies at 98

  A $20 Billion Fund Puts Its Religious Stamp on Corporate America

  Tesla’s Car Business Isn’t Really in the Driver’s Seat

  Why Mark Zuckerberg No Longer Needs Nick Clegg

  Foreign Phone Sales Plunge 47% in China Spelling Trouble for Apple

  Apple to Pay $95 Million to Settle Lawsuit Accusing Siri of Eavesdropping

  A Year After Boeing’s Blowout, Quality Remains Work in Progress

  Boeing Adds More Surprise Quality Checks in Its Factories

  Super-Hybrids Are Automakers’ Bridge for EV Skeptics and Curious

  Zyn’s Online Hype Risks Leading to the Nicotine Pouches’ Downfall

  US Surgeon General Calls for Cancer Warnings on Alcohol Labels

  Hollywood’s Sequel-Led Comeback Projected to Extend Into 2025

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• Morning News: January 2, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 2nd, 2025 at 7:05 am

  Asia’s Manufacturing Expands Despite Export Woes, Waning Confidence

  China’s Growth in 2025 Depends on Battling Storms on Many Fronts

  Chinese Stocks Tumble in Worst Start to a Year Since 2016

  China Hits Dozens of U.S. Companies With Trade Controls

  U.S. Companies Vouched for China During Trump’s First Term. Not Anymore.

  European Gas Pares Gains After Loss of Russian Flows Via Ukraine

  Are Russian Sanctions Working? Debate Takes New Urgency With Trump.

  Politics, Economics and Markets Create a 2025 Three-Body Problem

  Businesses Preparing for Another Year of Geopolitical Tumult

  The Bull and Bear Case for 2025

  The Case For Paranoid Optimism Under Trump 2.0

  US Stocks Set for Bounce After Four-Day Losing Run

  Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2025

  Stock Bears Are Going Extinct. Time to Worry?

  D.E. Shaw to Return Billions After Flagship Hedge Fund Gains 18%

  Morgan Stanley to Leave Sector Climate Coalition

  The Top Climate Tech Investing Trends to Watch

  Why Credit Suisse Was a Magnet for Scandals

  Nvidia’s Market Value Gets $2 Trillion Boost in 2024 on AI Rally

  US Dockworkers, Port Employers Set to Restart Talks Next Week

  Big Retail Gets Bigger as Smaller Players Struggle

  How Saffron, a Precious Import, Became an American Cash Crop

  TikTok, Trump Sure to Spark a Year of Social Media Chaos

  China’s Late-Year EV Sales Boom Gives Way to Rocky 2025 View

  Why the Obesity Drug Revolution Is a Work in Progress

  Rolex Hikes Watch Prices by as Much as 8% After Gold Surges

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• Morning News: January 1, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 1st, 2025 at 7:08 am

  China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is.

  China’s Leader Nods to Economic Challenges

  Russia and Ukraine End Five Decades of Gas Transit to Europe

  Green-Energy Firms’ Pitch to Trump: You’re Going to Need a Lot of Power

  The Biggest S&P 500 Winners and Losers of 2024

  Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stocks

  Treasuries See Hoped-For Rally Fizzle Into Another Lagging Year

  The Best Predictions for 2025 Are Actually About 2024

  ‘This Will Be Priceless’—Elon Musk Just Quietly Blew Up The Price Of This Bitcoin Rival

  Crypto’s $205 Billion Stablecoin Market Set to Go Mainstream

  Democrats’ Problem With Big Cities, in Three Charts

  Swiss Central Bank Faces Call to Hold Bitcoin in Reserves

  A Top Climate Group for Banks and Asset Managers Is Making Changes

  Citi and Bank of America Say They’re Leaving Global Climate-Banking Alliance

  Alibaba to Sell Sun Art to Buyout Firm DCP for $1.6 Billion

  The Visas Dividing MAGA World Help Power the U.S. Tech Industry

  US Steel Jumps Most in a Year on Nippon Steel Offer to Biden

  Is Living on Top of a Costco the Answer to Affordable-Housing Crisis?

  Why Breakfast Is Busting Your Food Budget

  What Happens When a Whole Generation Never Grows Up?

  Advertisers Keep Avoiding News Sites, and Publishers Have Had Enough of It

  Moviegoers Dealt Originality a Setback in 2024

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