Author Archive
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Morning News: March 19, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 19th, 2025 at 7:09 amTrump Has Hinted at a Xi Visit. China Is Still Wondering What He Wants.
Threatening Canada Is More Putin Than Reagan
Bank of Japan Leaves Rates Steady as U.S. Uncertainty Heightens
Turkish Markets Nosedive After Erdogan’s Main Rival Detained
Indonesia’s Central Bank Stands Pat as Expected Amid Volatility
Eurozone Inflation Cooler Than Thought, Underscoring Sluggish Economy
E.U. Hatches a Plan to Lure Investors Back to Europe
Irish Economic Outlook Hit by Tariff Uncertainty, Central Bank Says
Close to 5,000 ESG Funds in Europe Now Hold Oil, Gas and Coal
Farmers Have Fair Trade Complaints, but Tariffs Are a Bigger Worry
The 1960s ‘Chicken Tax’ Shows the Lasting Impact of Tariffs
As Debt Ceiling Looms, the Fed Considers Tweaking Its Portfolio Runoff
Does the Fed Share the Stock Market’s Worry About the Economy?
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s March Meeting
DOGE Just Might Usher In New Era of Big Government
‘Will I Lose My Job?’ Federal Workers Flock to Reddit for Answers.
How TD Became America’s Most Convenient Bank for Money Launderers
Cathie Wood Sells Meta Shares for First Time in Nearly a Year
Samsung Vows to Reclaim Ground in AI Memory Market With Rollout
Tencent’s Revenue Growth Accelerates on Robust Gaming Business
Advanced Instruments to Buy Nova Biomedical From Founding Shareholders in $2.2 Billion Deal
Ben & Jerry’s Says CEO Fired by Unilever on Political Stance
Mom, the Brands Are Fighting Again
At Forever 21, the Adrenaline Rush Was the Point
Nike Returns to Sports While Investors Impatiently Await Reset
In Japan, Shohei Ohtani Is a National Hero and Marketer’s Dream
San Francisco Giants Sell Stake to Private Equity
Hollywood Filmmaker Charged With $11 Million Conspiracy to Defraud Netflix
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Morning News: March 18, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 18th, 2025 at 7:04 amHong Kong Piles On to Beijing’s Growing Criticism of Panama Canal Deal
European Central Bank May Need Fresh Cuts as Trade Turmoil Burdens Growth, Rehn Says
German Economic Sentiment Climbs After Politicians Pledge Ramp-Up in Spending
Pete Hegseth Is Closing a Pentagon Office That Wins Wars
Gold Rises to Record on Middle East Tension, US Economy Concerns
U.S. Tariff Increases to Slow Global Economy, Boost Inflation, OECD Says
White House Tries to Restore Order to Disruptive Tariff Rollout
For Importers Rushing to Beat Tariffs, It’s Life on the Edge
Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree.
Bessent Sees No Reason for Recession, Economic Data ‘Healthy’
Trump Nominates Federal Reserve Governor Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision
Powell Contends With Double Threat of Economic Chaos and Political Hostility
Elon Musk’s Starlink Expands Across White House Complex
DOGE’s Real Goal Is Privatizing Government
Nasdaq Plans Second U.S. Headquarters in Texas
Overnight Trading Gains Steam as Clearing Firm to Extend Hours
JPMorgan Stock Traders Reel In Windfall as Trump Whipsaws Market
Ukrainian Telecom Group Kyivstar to Go Public on Nasdaq at $2.21 Billion Valuation
Nvidia Is Hosting the Super Bowl of A.I.
From Courtrooms to Crisis Lines, Chinese Officials Embrace DeepSeek
Xiaomi’s Quarterly Net Profit Soars 90% on Record Revenue
Trump’s Unwelcome News to Auto Chiefs: Buckle Up for What’s to Come
XPeng Guides for Surging Revenue, EV Sales as Loss Narrows
Cheap Chinese Cars Are Taking Over Roads From Brazil to South Africa
Congo’s Cobalt Ban Is Rooted in China’s Cheap EV Bonanza
AirAsia to Keep Cutting Prices, Grow Fleet to Get Revenue Flying Again
P&G Takes Lead in 95-Year Rivalry With Unilever
Community Notes Can’t Save Social Media From Itself
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Morning News: March 17, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 17th, 2025 at 7:02 amChina Says It Started Year on Strong Economic Footing as Trump Tariffs Hit
Xi ‘Put’ Underpins China Story as US Exceptionalism Falters
Foreign Investors Lured to High-Yielding Chinese Bank Debt
Trump Has Companies in Europe and Asia Walking a DEI Tightrope
U.S. Tariff Increases to Slow Global Economy, Boost Inflation, OECD Says
Trump’s Trade Wars Tip World to Slower Growth, Faster Inflation, OECD Says
Wall Street Braces for Oil in $60s Range on Tariff, OPEC+ Risks
El-Erian: The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertain
Trade War With Europe Puts $9.5 Trillion at Risk, U.S. Firms Say
Trump’s Moves Are Boosting Stocks … Overseas
Bessent Not Worried About Market, Calls Corrections Healthy
An Uncertain Economic Moment Poses a Big Test for the Fed
Ride Out the Market Turmoil? Not These Investors.
Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
Some Federal Office Leases Restored After Pushback to Musk Team’s Cuts
Social Security Employees Warn of Damage From DOGE
Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attention
Trump Wants to Build Homes on Federal Land. Here’s What That Would Look Like.
As Voice of America Goes Dark, Some Broadcasts Are Replaced by Music
QinetiQ’s Shares Tumble On Geopolitical Uncertainty, Contract Delays
How A.I. Companies Are Turning Into Energy Companies
WeRide Looks to Shift Into Profitability With Diversified Strategy
The Prime Suspect Behind California’s Eaton Fire: A ‘Zombie’ Power Line
Pfizer Has a New Playbook for Reviving Sales—and It’s Starting to Pay Off
They Named Their Companies Lumon. Then ‘Severance’ Aired.
Airbnb Boosts Marketing and Hiring Ahead of Push Into New Businesses
Forever 21 Operator Files for Bankruptcy
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Morning News: March 14, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 14th, 2025 at 7:02 amJapan Wage Talks Signal Another Year of Big Pay Increases
The Ukraine Ceasefire Will Test US Intentions Most of All
Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ System Spurs Flood of Defense Industry Pitches
China Backs Iran in Nuclear Talks, Slams ‘Threat of Force’ From the West
China Is ‘Laughing’ at US Trade Wars, EU Top Diplomat Says
Five Years On, Covid-19 Pandemic Effects Linger in World Economy
Investment Bank Boom Creates More Millionaire Earners in Europe
U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts, Posing New Challenge to Government
Trump Ramps Up EU Trade War With Tariff Threat on Champagne, Wine
Wine Businesses Fear Disaster in Threat of Huge Tariffs
Stocks Tumble Into Correction as Investors Sour on Trump
How Wall Street and Business Got Trump Wrong
This Stock Market Index Is Flashing a Clear Warning About the Economy
The Upside-Down Line That Tells the Story of the Stock Market Now
Here’s Where to Look for Early Signs of a Recession
Fed Expected to Cut Rates Twice This Year, Starting in September
Gold Breaks Through $3,000 as Trump Turbocharges Record Rally
Federal Budget Ax Threatens Contractors, But Could Also Be an Opportunity
What If DOGE Doesn’t Actually Save Any Money?
US Companies Tell Investors DOGE Cuts Will Ultimately Pay Off
‘Profit-Enhancing Middlemen’ Fuel $200 Billion Health-Care Chaos
Li Auto Profit Drops Despite Record Revenue
BMW Expects Flat Earnings This Year as Headwinds Continue
Mercedes’s Most Affordable Sedan Will Be Electric
Universal Music Shares Fall After Ackman’s Pershing Decides to Cut Stake
Kering’s Shares Drop After Appointment of Demna as Gucci’s New Artistic Director
Move Over, Kids. Hasbro Wants Adults to Play.
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Morning News: March 13, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 13th, 2025 at 7:02 amGoing Once, Going Twice: 165,000 Tons of Rice
Turkey Seeks to Extend US Sanctions Waiver to Buy Russian Gas
Europe’s Idling Factories Eye New Start in the Military
European Truck Stocks Fall After EPA Sets Rollback of Emissions Standards
Trump Vows 200% Tariff on EU Wine, Escalating Trade Tensions
Trump’s Go-To Broker Brings NYC-Style Dealmaking to a World on Edge
A Shutdown May Be Averted, But at What Cost?
Trump’s $1.4 Trillion Tariff Threat Spurs Companies to Seek Cover
An ‘Untradable’ Market: Trump Sows Profound Uncertainty for Stocks
‘Buy The Dip’ Calls Fade as Trump Selloffs Rattle Wall Street
Stagflation Trade Emerges as Rare Winner in US Stock Market Rout
Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels
Tariffs Won’t Help More Men Get Jobs
How Trump’s ‘No Tax on Tips’ Could Backfire for the Working Class
Trump Cuts Could Squeeze Small Farmers and Food Banks
How Corporate America is Retreating from D.E.I.
China Cools on Musk: ‘Two Cars for the Price of One Tesla’
Tesla’s Stock Still Isn’t Cheap
Elon Musk’s Starlink Pushes Its Way Into India
Intel Names New Chief Executive Amid Turnaround Efforts
Apple Shares Are Losing Haven Allure as Headwinds Deter Bulls
Meta Turns to Its Community of Users to Police Misinformation
Accelleron Industries Exceeds $1 Billion Revenue for First Time
Mallinckrodt, Endo Merger to Create Diversified Pharmaceuticals Firm
Couche-Tard Doubles Down on Friendly Takeover of 7-Eleven Owner
Retractions, Walkouts Plague Science Journals Eager to Churn Out Research
Maker of Pokémon Go Agrees to Sell Unit to Saudi Fund
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Morning News: March 12, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 12th, 2025 at 7:03 amMajor Japanese Firms Promise Big Pay Raises in Bright Sign for Economy
China Piles the Pressure on India in Its Own Backyard
As Europe Rearms, Bond Funds Are Ripping Up the Rule Book
ECB Facing ‘Exceptionally High’ Levels of Uncertainty, Lagarde Says
EU Hits Back as U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Take Effect
Wine, Soy, Refrigerators: What Products Might Be Hit by European Tariffs
Tariffs Add to Automaker Concerns About Higher Steel Costs
Why Trump Has Doubled Down on Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
Why Britain Has Not Retaliated Against Trump’s Tariffs
Trump and Musk Cuts Would Rival Thatcher’s 1980s Austerity
Ireland Kicks Off St. Patrick’s Day Festivities in U.S. With Trade Plea
Trump’s Tariffs: Where Things Stand
A Tariff Pile-On Threatens to Escalate a Global Trade War
Dudley: These Tariffs Will Be Worse Than Markets Think
Is Trump Taking a ‘Liquidationist’ Approach to the Economy?
When Economic Chaos Doesn’t Have an Endgame
Stocks Pare Losses but Investors Remain Wary of Trade Tensions
There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets
The Loyal Opposition Inside the S.E.C.
Trump to Announce Bowman Soon as Pick for Fed’s Top Bank Cop
US Homebuyers Confront a New Wild Card This Year: Trump
Walmart Gets an Earful From China Over Response to Trump Tariffs
Zara Parent Inditex Sales Growth Slows Amid Intense Competition
In Search of a Boring Business
‘Forced Joy’ Is a Miserable Corporate Trend
Trump, an E.V. Naysayer, Gives Tesla and Musk a White House Exhibition
Airlines Cut Forecasts, Raising an Early Alarm About Consumer Spending
To Get Big in China, N.B.A. Stars Enlist Social Media Surrogates
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CWS Market Review – March 11, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 11th, 2025 at 7:12 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
The stock market was hit hard yesterday. The Dow lost nearly 900 points. For the day, the S&P 500 lost 2.70%. That was the index’s largest loss for this year. It was also the third-largest daily loss in the last 2-1/2 years.
Going by intra-day levels, the S&P 500 got down to 9.7% below its intra-day high from last month. Since its peak, the S&P 500 has shed $4 trillion.
As we’ve seen in recent weeks, the selling was again mostly focused on riskier areas of the market. Value and low-volatility stocks fared much better; even so, many closed lower on the day.
The Nasdaq Composite, for example, closed down 4% yesterday. Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) was also the focus of many sellers. The EV stock is now down about half in the last several weeks. The S&P 500 High Beta Index is down 17% from its peak.
The message is clear. Folks are selling risk and buying safety. For example, Bitcoin is down 30% from its January peak. I’m pleased to say that our ETF is holding up much better than the rest of the market. The last three weeks have been some of our best weeks in terms of relative performance in years.
I know it sounds odd to say that we’re doing a lot less badly than everyone else. Still, from my experience, it’s the “less badly” part that separates good investors from the rest of the pack. In a bull market, everyone looks like a genius.
It seems like all the stocks that were working so well in December are now lagging and the stocks that had been trailing in December are now the hottest places to be. As we know well, the market has a mind of its own.
The stock market was down again today. At one point, the S&P 500 was down over 1.5% but it eventually closed down 0.76%. The S&P 500 reached its lowest closing level in six months. The index is also trading below its 200-day moving average (the blue line in the chart above). That’s often been a signal of more trouble ahead. Most of the high volatility days have come when the index is below its 200-DMA.
Here’s a look at the High Beta Index:
What’s the cause for the sudden jitters in the market? The top suspect appears to be President Trump’s trade policies, or perhaps it would be more accurate to say the uncertainty surrounding President’s Trump’s trade policies. Last month, the National Federation of Independent Business’ “Uncertainty Index” rose to its second-highest level since 1973. The percentage of small businesses who say now is a good time to expand posted its largest one-month drop since Covid.
More than once, the president has reversed himself or called for delays. I suspect that investors are growing frustrated with the ad hoc nature of these tariff polices. This morning, the president said he would double that tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum.
In addition to the uncertain policy risk, there’s also been some sluggish economic news. I want to be clear that it’s hardly bad news, but the economy may not be as strong as we believed.
The February Jobs Report Was OK But Not Great
On Friday, for example, we got the employment report from February, and it was decent but below expectations.
The government said that the U.S. economy created 151,000 net new jobs last month. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 170,000 so that’s not a huge miss. The job gains figure for January was revised down to 125,000.
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%. That’s not bad, but it’s not much above inflation. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%.
I was curious to see if the efforts of DOGE are present yet in the data. Last month, federal government employment fell by 10,000 while overall government employment increased by 11,000. We’ll probably have a better idea next month when the March jobs report comes out.
Here are some more details:
Health care led the way in job creation, adding 52,000 jobs, about in line with its 12-month average. Other sectors posting gains included financial activities (21,000), transportation and warehousing (18,000), and social assistance (11,000). Retail posted a decline of 6,000 workers.
On wages, average hourly earnings climbed 0.3%, as expected, though the annual increase of 4% was a bit softer than the 4.2% forecast.
Some of the details don’t look so hot. For example, the labor force participation rate fell 0.2% to 62.4%. That’s the lowest level in more than two years. The broader U-6 rate rose to its highest level since October 2021.
The household survey showed a loss of 588,000 jobs. The number of folks who have part-time work but are looking for full-time jobs rose by 460,000 to 4.9 million.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently expects Q1 GDP to shrink at a 2.4% rate. Polymarket, which lets investors buy futures on real world events, now sees a 41% chance of a recession this year.
One effect of this jobs report may be a more active Federal Reserve. Futures traders now expect three rate cuts this year whereas it was only two a few weeks ago.
The next test for the market will come tomorrow with the February CPI report. Wall Street expects an increase of 0.3% for both the core and headline rates. The 12-month rate is expected to be 3.2% for the core rate and 2.9% for the headline rate. Tomorrow’s report will be too soon to show any impact from the trade policies.
Time for SAIC to Shine?
Next week, one of our Buy List stocks, Science Applications International (SAIC), is due to report its earnings. I highlight SAIC because it’s put up good results in recent quarters, but their stock has not done well.
In September, SAIC reported Q2 earnings of $2.05 per share. That was a 20-cent beat. Then in December, it reported Q3 earnings of $2.61 per share. That was a 44-cent beat.
Yet the stock started to fall since election day. In November, SAIC was as high as $156 per share. It recently dropped to $95 per share.
I assume that investors are nervous that its contracts will come under the DOGE knife. I’m not so sure of that. SAIC does a lot of private sector business, and it works with many foreign governments. Also, most of the company’s defense contracts are on high-tech systems which often help the Pentagon save money.
In December, SAIC’s board of directors authorized a buyback of $1.2 billion. That’s a strong show of confidence. At the end of last quarter, SAIC’s estimated backlog was approximately $22.4 billion.
SAIC also raised its guidance. The company sees its full-year earnings ranging between $8.50 and $8.65 per share. That’s a big increase over the previous guidance range of $8.10 to $8.30 per share. SAIC also narrowed its revenue range to between $7.425 and $7.475 billion.
For the year so far, SAIC has made $6.56 per share. That means the guidance implies Q4 earnings of $1.94 to $2.09 per share. Last Friday, the stock rose nearly 9% in trading. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see an upside surprise.
That’s all for now. There will be no newsletter next week. I’m going to be at the Future Proof Citywide investment conference in Miami Beach. If you’re around, please come by to say hello. It should be a lot of fun. We’ll be at booth #116.
– Eddy
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Morning News: March 11, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 11th, 2025 at 7:05 amJapan’s Economy Grew More Slowly Than Initially Estimated in Final Quarter of 2024
Putin’s Faced Some Tough US Presidents. Not This One.
Sahm: The War on Government Statistics Has Quietly Begun
Wall Street’s Epic Swoon Wipes out Trump Bump
Treasuries Hold Gains in Wake of Stock Slide With Data in Focus
Traders Search for Havens as US Stock Selloff Rattles Nerves
Citi Downgrades US Stocks While Wall Street Set to Pause Selloff
Billionaires at Trump’s Swearing-In Have Since Lost $209 Billion
Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing
Regret Over ‘Recession We Had to Have’ Looms as Lesson for Trump
Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.
First Inflation, Now Tariffs: Low-Income Americans Can’t Catch a Break
Trump Has Said ‘No Exceptions’ to His Tariffs. Will That Last?
Tariff Turmoil Leaves US Factories Paying More for Metal Than Overseas Rivals
No Reprieve From Steel Tariffs in Sight Despite Lobbying Efforts
Builders Stockpile Lumber, Swap Out Materials to Work Around Tariffs
Solar Energy, Criticized by Trump, Claims Big U.S. Gain in 2024
Handouts Aren’t the Answer to US Shipbuilding Woes
Musk Says Entitlements ‘Big One’ to Cut in Trump’s DOGE Push
Bad Day for X and Tesla Prompts Concern About Musk’s Distractions
Bank of America Eliminates Some Investment Banking Roles
Private Credit Pioneer Dragged Down by Insults and Indecision
Dell, HPE Deal With the Uncertainty of an Ever-Changing Tariff Picture
Nissan Replaces CEO After Failed Honda Merger
Bags Will No Longer Fly Free on Southwest Airlines
Unilever to Speed Up Sale of Food Brands, CEO Says
How America Got Hooked on H Mart
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Morning News: March 10, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 10th, 2025 at 7:06 amGerman Industrial Production Rose at Start of 2025 as Tariff Threats Loom
Mark Carney Wins Canada Liberal Contest, Will Succeed Trudeau in Days
China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect
Tariff Wars Are Often Short. Their Legacies Aren’t.
Who Likes Tariffs? Some U.S. Industries Are Eager for Them.
The Fed’s Fixation on a 2% Inflation Target Is Risky
Morgan Stanley Joins Chorus of Volatility Warnings on US Stocks
Is the Bull Market in ‘Detox’ or Melting Down?
Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angst
Trump Declines to Rule Out Recession
One of Wall Street’s Biggest Bulls Now Says a Flash Crash Can’t Be Ruled Out
Trump’s Dealmaking Is All About Him
Stalled Audits and a Skeleton Staff: Inside Trump’s War on the I.R.S.
Swiss Bank J. Safra Sarasin to Buy Majority Stake in Saxo Bank For $1.2 Billion
Wealthiest Colleges Fight to Protect Their Riches From Taxation
Rocket to Buy Redfin in $1.75 Billion All-Stock Deal
DOGE’s Push for Americans’ Data Meets Mixed Response From Judges
A Chill Sets In for Undocumented Workers, and Those Who Hire Them
St. Louis Wants Immigrants. Trump’s Crackdown Could Get in the Way.
How Natural Gas Became America’s Most Important Export
Report Supports Case for Rio Tinto Unification in Australia, Palliser Says
Whitecap Resources, Veren to Merge in a $10.4 Billion All-Share Deal
TSMC’s Sales Quicken in First Two Months in Upbeat Note for AI
Novo Nordisk Shares Fall After Latest CagriSema Obesity Drug Trial Results
Why the Obesity Drug Revolution Is a Work in Progress
Disney’s Parks Chief Sees Fortnite as Key to Its Future
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Morning News: March 7, 2025
Eddy Elfenbein, March 7th, 2025 at 7:02 amBig Oil Butts Heads With Refiners Over Biofuels
Fighting Climate Without US Dollars
China’s Export Growth Disappoints Amid Trade Tensions
Deepfakes of Singapore PM Used to Sell Crypto, Residency Program
Eurozone Grew More Strongly Than Thought at End of 2024
German Factory Orders Slump Again as Hopes Grow for Stimulus to Counter Tariff Threat
Trading Floors Laud New European Era as Germany Set to Spend
China Blasts Trump’s ‘Two-Faced Acts’, Calls US Tariffs ‘Evil’
Trump and Xi’s Dueling Models for Tech Supremacy
Big Chunk of North American Trade Remains Exposed to Tariffs
Tariffs by Whim Keep Allies Off Balance, but Do the Same to Markets
Tariff Anxiety and the Dilemma of Forecasting
Commerce Secretary Lutnick Says the Darndest Things
Peter Thiel’s Deep Ties to Trump’s Top Ranks
Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook
America Is Finding Out It’s Very Difficult to Import Eggs
The Recession Trade Is Back on Wall Street
Junior Bankers Say Grunt Work Matters Even With AI Taking On the Tasks They Hate
Harnessing the Financial Power of Women
Secretive Hedge Fund QRT Adds Another $5 Billion to Its Assets
As Layoffs Continue, Federal Workers Face Sluggish Job Market
Private Prisons Are Ramping Up Detention of Immigrants and Cashing In
How Public Shaming Helped Create a Promising US Housing Program
Walgreens to Be Bought by Private Equity Firm in $10 Billion Deal
Women’s Soccer League Signs Sponsorship With ‘Gen Z Whisperer’ Alex Cooper
A Cheeto Shaped Like a Pokémon Was a Treasure in Need of Protection
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