Author Archive

  • The Rising Yield Curve
    , March 20th, 2012 at 1:29 pm

    Here’s a graph which illustrates the point I’ve been making about the market’s changing mood. Over the last few weeks, Treasury interest rates along the yield curve have been rising. This is a reflection of the market leaving conservative assets in search of riskier ones.

    The increase in rates has been most prominent at the long end of the yield curve. From five years out to 30 years, interest rates have increased by roughly 50 basis points. Rates have climbed especially since March 6th.

  • Donaldson’s Amazing (But Dull) Run
    , March 20th, 2012 at 11:19 am

    As long-time readers know, I love finding dull stocks that have done extremely well over the years. If you take a step back, it’s kind of amazing that Wall Street focuses so heavily on high-glamour businesses while there are lots of great companies that get almost no attention.

    Just think: How many stocks do you recognize from the Top 10 performers of the last 20 years?

    One such outstanding dull stock is Donaldson ($DCI) who’s in the exciting business of…filtration systems! Check out the graph below. The stock was on my Buy List up through 2009 when I stupidly kicked it off. Over the last 27 years, Donaldson is up 9,700% to the S&P 500’s 695%. That doesn’t include the dividend which has been increased every year since 1996.

    Over the last three years, Donaldson’s earnings-per-share have grown from $1.67 to $2.19 to $2.87. Note the nice steady upward trend. That’s what we like to see.

    Their fiscal year ends in July so we already have two quarters under our belt. Donaldson’s public EPS forecast for this year is $3.25 to $3.45. Using my trusty abacus, I think they should be able to earn $3.40 per share this year and $3.72 per share next year. Give or take. Donaldson’s CEO recently said that their earnings for this fiscal year would constitute the 21st record year in the last 23 years.

    As much as I like Donaldson, the shares seem very pricey here. Of course, that’s what I thought in late 2009 when I decided to take it off the Buy List.

    One final note: Donaldson’s stock will split 2-for-1 next week.

  • Happy Birthday Vera Lynn
    , March 20th, 2012 at 8:17 am

    95 years old

  • Morning News: March 20, 2012
    , March 20th, 2012 at 5:09 am

    In Greek Crisis, a Little-Known Adviser With Outsize Influence

    Swiss Secrecy Besieged Makes Banks Fret World Money Lure Fading

    Glencore to Resume Philippine Copper Ops by Mid-year

    Behind the Blood Money

    Europe’s Economy Tolerant of Oil’s Gradual Rise

    Geithner Warns EU Against Hasty Budget Measures

    Senate Seeks to Toughen a Bill Aimed at Start-Ups

    U.S. Made Profit on Mortgage Debt

    Apple to Pay Dividend, Buy Back Stock to Return Some of Cash

    Amazon Acquires Kiva Systems in Second-Biggest Takeover

    Facebook Is Said to Plan Paying 1.1 Percent Fee to Banks

    Adobe Net Drops 21% Amid Shift

    Citigroup Sells Stake in Shanghai Pudong Development Bank

    Berkshire Investor Suit Over Sokol’s Stock Claims Tossed

    Wendy’s Tops Burger King as Second-Largest U.S. Burger Chain

    Stone Street: Newsflash: Chinese Co’s are Being Forced to Falsify Data

    Howard Lindzon: Boo Apple…The Great Utility Company…Let the Double Taxation Begin!

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  • Volatility Has Biggest Decline in 78 Years
    , March 19th, 2012 at 1:03 pm

    From Bloomberg:

    Daily price changes in the S&P 500 are decreasing the most in eight decades, shrinking to the smallest since 1995 when investors abandoned stocks just before the biggest rally ever.

    The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities has gained or lost an average 0.46 percent a day this year, compared with 1.04 percent in 2011, the biggest reduction since 1934, during the Great Depression, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Swings are diminishing after valuations fell 40 percent and correlation among shares weakened the most in at least three decades.

    At the same time, trading on the New York Stock Exchange has slumped to the lowest rate in 13 years, spurring concern about the biggest first-quarter rally since 1998. Bulls say the decline in trading and daily swings signal fear is dissipating after one of the most volatile years on record. Bears say falling volume is a warning gains will reverse should economic reports and earnings fail to match expectations.

  • Sprint May Declare Bankruptcy Soon
    , March 19th, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    A year ago, I said that Sprint Nextel ($S) was “a financial black hole.” The company had been losing money, is losing money and by all accounts, is going to continue losing money.

    Today a Bernstein analyst said that a bankruptcy filing is “a very legitimate risk.”

    In late 1999, the stock (which was just Sprint before it merged with Nextel) was trading at $71. Today it’s down to $2.75. This is another good example of the a merger that never should have been.

  • Target Eyes $3 Dividend By 2017
    , March 19th, 2012 at 10:36 am

    By the way, the big dividend news today isn’t Apple (AAPL) — it’s Target ($TGT).

    Target didn’t increase its dividend today. The next dividend increase will probably be announced in June, and that will be the 41st-straight annual dividend increase.

    But Target did say today that it plans to get its dividend to $3 per share by 2017, assuming it reaches its EPS goal of $8 per share.

    Let’s look at the numbers: A $3 per share annual dividend is 75 cents per share per quarter. Last year’s dividend increase was from 25 cents to 30 cents per share. For Target to hit 75 cents per share in 2017, that would mean a dividend growth rate of 16.5%.

    That’s a bold forecast. Target could certainly hit $3 per share by 2017 but it will be hard to achieve it without raising their payout ratio.

    If Target is able to hits its (um) Target, then the shares are a great buy here at $58 per share. For me, I don’t trust forecasts made that far out into the future.

  • Apple to Initiate Dividend
    , March 19th, 2012 at 9:52 am

    Last week, I took a look at Apple’s ($AAPL) valuation. I noted the company has a gigantic cash horde but I said that I doubted a dividend would be coming soon.

    Shows what I know! Apple announced today that it will start paying a dividend of $2.65 each quarter. That works out to $10.60 per year. Based on Friday’s closing price of $585.57, that works out to a yield of 1.81%. Apple also said it will buy back up to $10 billion of its own stock.

    I’m impressed when a company gives its profits to its shareholders who, after all, are the owners of the company. When companies get too much money, problems can happen. Investment manager Peter Lynch referred to this as the Bladder Theory of corporate finance. For some reason, too many CEOs see the need to merge and acquire. Too much cash is a certain catalyst for a bad acquisition idea. You can never go wrong with giving the cash to the owners.

    If you had bought shares of Apple three years ago, you’d now be yielding 10.4% from your purchase price. If you had bought Apple nine years ago today, the dividend yields would be 141.9%.

    Apple’s annual dividend works out to roughly 1.09 points on the S&P 500. To put that in context, last year the index paid out 26.425 in dividends.

    On Thursday, by the way, Apple got as high as $600.01 per share. Last week, I had said that the fair price was $600.36.

  • Morning News: March 19, 2012
    , March 19th, 2012 at 5:41 am

    Monti to Meet Labor Unions Amid Fresh Warning on Crisis

    Brazil Bars Oil Workers From Leaving After Spill

    Germany’s $270 Billion Renewables Shift Biggest Since War

    French $17 Billion Luxury Goods Become Election Losers

    Swedish Debt Sinks as World’s Best Bonds Become Losers

    Japanese Stocks Gain as Trading Companies Climb in Tokyo

    Dun & Bradstreet Halts China Unit Operations Amid Probe

    China’s Share of Global Arms Imports Falls, Sipri Says

    China Home Prices Fall in More Than Half Cities Tracked

    Gold, Corn Advance While Copper Declines

    Surprise Increase in Rates Is Credited to Signs of Recovery

    UPS to Purchase TNT Express for $6.8 Billion

    Apple Says It Will Announce a Decision About Its Cash

    Playing at No Cost, Right Into the Hands of Mobile Game Makers

    How ‘Hunger Games’ Built Up Must-See Fever

    Joshua Brown: A Billion Bernie Madoffs

    Edward Harrison: I Am Not Bullish But I Am Not Bearish Either

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  • CWS Market Review – March 16, 2012
    , March 16th, 2012 at 5:55 am

    After a long, dull stretch, this was a pretty eventful week for Wall Street. The S&P 500 cracked 1,400 and several of our Buy List stocks are breaking out. Two of our stocks, CA Technologies ($CA) and JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), are already up over 34% for us on the year. The resurgence of risk-taking has given a major lift to our portfolio.

    Last week, I said that Friday’s jobs report would be a major driver for the market, and indeed it was. Although, the jobs report for February wasn’t quite as strong as I was expecting, it was still pretty good and Wall Street took notice.

    Here’s the bottom line: The U.S. economy has proven its ability to create more than 200,000 jobs per month, which is a nice change of pace from shedding millions of jobs per year. Plus, the good jobs news looks to continue. Thursday’s jobless claims report was the best one in four years.

    Slowly, the economy is gaining strength. To be sure, we’re still a long way from full stride, but the key for us as investors is that companies are seeing more bodies come through their doors. In fact, Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY), a major retail player, gapped up to a new 52-week high on Thursday. Longtime readers will recall that this was our top-performing stock from last year. It’s already up 13.1% for us this year. Look for another good earnings report on April 4th.

    The Fed’s Optimism Lifts Our Buy List

    The other big news from this past week was Tuesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. I was pleased to see that the Fed’s post-meeting policy statement reflected a more optimistic outlook for the economy. The central bank said that “the economy has been expanding moderately” and that “strains in global financial markets have eased.” This is especially encouraging because central bankers almost always see the dark clouds in any silver lining.

    The question now is: Will Benny and his Buds be encouraged to raise interest rates before their 2014 forecast? My view is that we simply can’t tell right now. It’s best for us to assume that rates are going to stay low for a good while longer. Outside of certain commodities, most companies don’t have enough market power to raise prices.

    Fortunately, continued low interest rates is good news for many stocks on our Buy List like Nicholas Financial ($NICK). Speaking of which, that stock gapped up to $14.41 on Tuesday. It’s hard to believe that three years ago NICK was going for less than $2 per share. I think we may see a dividend increase here as well.

    Throughout the financial markets, what we’re seeing is a continuation of the trend I’ve been highlighting: investors are gradually taking on more risk. This is a very good sign for us. It’s more accurate to say that investors are finally letting go of their super-conservative investments in favor of moderately risky investments.

    Consider that after an historic three-year bull run, the S&P 500 isn’t outrageously priced. That’s odd to say, but it’s true. Even at 1,400, the index is trading at less than 14 times this year’s earnings estimate. I think it’s very possible that dividends for the S&P 500 could rise by 15% this year.

    Another sign that investors are becoming more tolerant of risk is that the long end of the Treasury yield curve is still rising. It’s not good for stocks when so many investors are glad to accept 2% for lending Uncle Sam their capital for 10 years. Perhaps that makes sense when it seems like world is about to end. But now things are changing. The yield on the 30-year T-bond recently ticked above 3.4%. Six months ago, it was yielding less than 2.8%. The key for us is that as investors take on more risk, our Buy List will continue to do well.

    JPMorgan Backs Up My Dividend Call

    In last week’s CWS Market Review, I said that JPMorgan Chase could “easily afford” to raise its dividend by five cents per share. Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened. The bank raised its quarterly dividend from 25 cents to 30 cents per share. That news actually helped spark a financials-led rally on Tuesday afternoon. (Some folks thought it was Jamie Dimon’s way of stealing the spotlight from the Fed.) JPMorgan continues to be one of the strongest major banks on Wall Street. Going by Thursday’s closing price, the new dividend gives JPM a yield of 2.68%.

    As I mentioned, JPM’s dividend news lifted the entire market on Tuesday. Our financial stocks AFLAC ($AFL), Hudson City ($HCBK) and Nicholas Financial ($NICK) all saw big gains. The market continued to rally on Thursday and the S&P 500 broke 1,400 for the first time since 2008. Our Buy List continues to break out to new highs, and it’s even extending its lead against the S&P 500. Through Thursday, our Buy List is up 13.20% for the year compared with 11.53% for the S&P 500.

    I should remind you that Oracle’s ($ORCL) earnings report is coming next Tuesday, March 20th. I’m not yet confident that we will see a major earnings surprise here. Still, Oracle is a strong company and it’s very well-positioned. I also like the fact that Oracle has very strong cash flow. I feel that the company embarrassed itself last earnings season and they’re looking to right themselves in Wall Street’s eyes.

    The numbers here are pretty clear: The stock is going for less than 12 times next year’s earnings (their fiscal year ends in May). On top of that, I think we’ll see Oracle raise its dividend from six cents to seven cents per share. If you’re able to get Oracle for less than $30 per share, you’ve gotten a good deal.

    Reynolds American ($RAI) made news this past week when the tobacco company said that it’s planning on cutting 10% of its U.S. workforce. Fortunately, this will be achieved by attrition instead of laying people off. I’m glad to see that Reynolds is staying alert on ways to keep costs down.

    Before I go, I should mention that some of our quieter Buy List stocks have been doing very well. Wright Express ($WXS) just closed at a 52-week high on Thursday. Fiserv ($FISV) continues to plow ahead. Both stocks are up 18% for us this year. Hudson City ($HCBK) is up by 10% just in the last three days—and it still yields more than 4.3%. Ford ($F) just topped $13 per share for the first time in over a month.

    That’s all for now. We’re heading near the close of the first quarter so earnings season isn’t far way. I expect to see another round of stellar results from our stocks. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy