Author Archive

  • The Market Is Up on Lower Jobless Claims
    , February 2nd, 2012 at 9:47 am

    The stock market is up a bit this morning. The good news was that jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 367,000. This is the tenth-straight week that jobless claims have been below 400,000. That’s a good number but the real test will come tomorrow morning when the Labor Department releases the jobs report for January.

    The other bit of economic data showed that worker productivity rose by 0.7% (annualized) in the fourth quarter. That’s down from 1.9% in the third quarter. On CNBC, Steve Liesman said that it’s probably best to view this data as the average of the third and fourth quarters. I think he’s right.

    Ben Bernanke will be speaking before Congress later today. We also have two more earnings reports: Fiserv ($FISV) and Nicholas Financial ($NICK). Fiserv will report after the close but NICK will report during the day. The stock has been climbing higher recently. I think we’ll see more good news from them.

  • Morning News: February 2, 2012
    , February 2nd, 2012 at 5:35 am

    Deutsche Bank Profit Tumbles as Debt Crisis Curbs Trading

    ECB May Hold Out on Greek Swap Until Investor Deal Reached on Debt Burden

    As Greece Nears a Big Debt Deal, Investors Now Fret That Portugal Will Ask for the Same

    BBVA Posts Its First Ever Quarterly Loss on U.S. Goodwill, Spain Bad Loans

    Japan Finmin Asks BOJ to Ease, Yen in Danger Zone

    India’s Supreme Court Cancels Telecom Licenses Sold in Tainted Sale

    Mortgage Relief Plan Aims at Refinancing

    Facebook Sets Historic IPO

    From Founders to Decorators, Facebook Riches

    In a Surprise, Car Sales Start New Year Strongly

    Deutsche Bank’s Profit Falls on European Debt Crisis

    Profit Down at Royal Dutch Shell

    Unilever Outlook Tough as Sales Miss Estimates

    AstraZeneca to Buy Back $4.5B Stock, Cut Jobs

    Miner Xstrata in merger talks with Glencore

    Phil Pearlman: Seasonality: February Is The Worst House In A Great Neighborhood

    Stone Street: Which is Worse, Lawyers Lying in Public Pleadings For Political Gain, or News Publishers, Too Lazy To Fact Check, Publishing The Lies As Gospel?

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  • The WSJ Misleads on AFLAC’s Earnings
    , February 1st, 2012 at 12:44 pm

    The WSJ reports:

    Aflac lost 1.2% after the insurance provider reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations, even as revenue beat, and provided a downbeat outlook for 2012 earnings.

    Downbeat? AFLAC gave the exact same forecast for 2012, and they increased it for 2013. This is what AFLAC wrote yesterday:

    Looking ahead, I want to reiterate that our objective for 2012 is to increase operating earnings per diluted share 2% to 5% on a currency neutral basis. This range reflects the impact of portfolio derisking and investing significant cash flows at low interest rates. We expect the rate of earnings growth in 2013 to improve over 2012.

  • Q4 Earnings Season By the Numbers
    , February 1st, 2012 at 11:02 am

    Wendy Soong of Bloomberg has updated the earnings numbers for this season:

    Of the 500 companies in the S&P 500, 236 have reported so far. Of that, 143 have beaten expectations, 71 have missed and 22 have matched. That’s a “beat rate” of 60.6%.

    Earnings growth is tracking at 2.7%. For financials, it’s -21.6%. When we exclude financials, earnings are growing at 8.0%.

  • January ISM – 54.1
    , February 1st, 2012 at 10:07 am

    The ISM report for January came out at 54.1 today. That makes for 30 straight months that it’s been above 50 which signifies an expanding economy.

    Are we in a recession? Put it this way: The ISM has fallen between 53.0 and 55.0 a total of 101 times. Just two of those times have come during recessions.

  • Morning News: February 1, 2012
    , February 1st, 2012 at 5:38 am

    Worst Earnings Since 2006 Fail to Dent European Stock Rally

    In Talks on Greek Bailout, Eyes Turn to Central Bank

    Greek Bondholders May Get GDP Sweetener in Deal

    EU Vetoes Deutsche Boerse-NYSE Euronext Merger

    U.K. Manufacturing Expanded in January

    China PMI Tops Forecast, Hard Landing Fears Ease

    Malaysian Rare Earth Metal Refinery Nears Approval

    Stocks Best Start Since ’94 Tops Commodities

    Freddie Mac Halts Use of Derivatives Tied to High Interest Rates

    Personal Data’s Value? Facebook Is Set to Find Out

    Amazon’s Revenues Disappoint

    UPS Profit Forecast for Year Tops Estimates as Shipping Demand Increases

    Roche Sees High Single-Digit 2012 Profit Growth on New Drugs

    After a Delay, MF Global’s Missing Money Is Traced

    Jeff Miller: Investors: De-mystifying the Central Bank Balance Sheets

    James Altucher: Self-Publishing Your Own Book is the New Business Card

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  • After the Close: CR Bard Beats Earnings, AFLAC Misses But Guides Higher for 2013
    , January 31st, 2012 at 6:09 pm

    The S&P 500 just closed out its best January in 15 years. The 55-point gain was the largest for January on record.

    After the bell today, we had two more earnings reports. CR Bard ($BCR) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.70 per share which was two cents better than expectations.

    Revenues rose 4.9% to $751.9 million. For the year, Bard earned $6.40 per share. That’s a 14% increase over the $5.60 Bard earned in 2010. Based on today’s close, Bard is going for 14.45 times trailing earnings.

    Timothy M. Ring, chairman and chief executive officer, commented, “Fourth quarter constant currency net sales growth of 5% was at the top end of our guidance and allowed us to exceed adjusted EPS guidance for the quarter and for the year. Our revenue growth is being driven by a combination of geographic investments, external acquisitions and internal research and development. By combining top-line growth with disciplined expense management and share-repurchase programs, we have been able to meet our short-term commitments to shareholders while positioning the company for healthy long-term growth.”

    AFLAC ($AFL) reported fourth-quarter operating earnings of $1.48 per share which was four cents below expectations. Three months ago, AFLAC said it expected to earn $1.45 to $1.52 per share for the fourth quarter. This is a slight disappointment to me because I had been expecting AFLAC to beat expectations by a few pennies per share.

    AFLAC reiterated their earnings forecast for this year of growth of 2% to 5%. For the year, AFLAC had operating earnings of $6.33 per share. That means the company sees earnings for 2012 ranging between $6.46 per share and $6.65 per share.

    The best news, however, is that AFLAC said it expects the rate of earnings growth in 2013 to exceed that of 2012. That’s excellent news. If we take the mid-point of AFLAC’s range for this year’s growth (3.5%) and assume 4% growth for 2013, that translates to earnings of $6.81 per share.

    Daniel P. Amos stated: “Aflac had another strong year. Growth of operating earnings per diluted share was in line with our goal of an 8% increase before the impact of foreign currency. That result was also consistent with guidance we provided when we released third quarter results. We had conveyed in the third quarter that following nine months of restrained expenditures, we planned to increase spending on IT and marketing initiatives in the fourth quarter to strengthen our business, and that’s exactly what we did. I am pleased that 2011 marked the 22nd consecutive year in which we achieved our earnings objective.

    “Aflac Japan gets high marks for another great quarter and year. The tremendous sales momentum they generated this quarter, largely propelled by success in selling through banks, significantly exceeded our expectations for the year and especially for the quarter. In fact, Aflac Japan’s fourth quarter production set an all-time quarterly record, which is especially remarkable considering 2011 was the year Japan was hit with the most devastating natural disaster in its history.

    “We are also pleased with Aflac U.S. results for the quarter and year. It has been, and continues to be, the longstanding goal and vision of Aflac U.S. to be the leading provider of voluntary insurance in the United States, and our sales results in 2011 build on that vision. Through our efforts, we continue to expand Aflac’s potential to connect with employees at more companies, large and small, across the United States.

    The 2009 addition of group products to our existing portfolio has allowed us to leverage our strong brand and provide more options for customers of both our traditional and broker distribution channels. In 2011, product marketing efforts geared toward existing accounts contributed to strong sales for our veteran agents. Additionally, you’ll recall that we have been establishing and developing relationships with brokers that handle the larger-case market. While this broker initiative is still in its infancy, we are excited about the opportunity this channel presents for future growth.

    “The strength of our capital ratios demonstrates our commitment to maintain financial strength on behalf of our policyholders and bondholders. As we have communicated over the past several years, sustaining a strong risk-based capital, or RBC ratio, remains a priority for us. We had conveyed that our goal was to end 2011 with an RBC ratio in the range of 400% to 500% with a target of 450%. Although we have not yet finalized our statutory financial statements, we estimate our 2011 RBC ratio will be between 480% and 520%. Additionally, we are comfortable with our solvency margin ratio and continue to apply rigorous stress testing under extreme scenarios.

    “As we look ahead to 2012 sales opportunities in the United States, we expect Aflac U.S. sales to increase 3% to 8%. Following Aflac Japan’s outstanding sales growth of 18.6% last year, I think it’s reasonable to expect Aflac Japan sales will decrease within the range of down 2% to down 5% for the year.

    “Looking ahead, I want to reiterate that our objective for 2012 is to increase operating earnings per diluted share 2% to 5% on a currency neutral basis. This range reflects the impact of portfolio derisking and investing significant cash flows at low interest rates. We expect the rate of earnings growth in 2013 to improve over 2012.”

  • The Golden Cross
    , January 31st, 2012 at 11:25 am

    Technical analysts are atwitter this week as the S&P 500 just passed a “Golden Cross.” This is when the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average.

    This is supposed to be good for the market. Personally, I’m rather skeptical of these technical milestones. After all, the S&P 500 has already soared a good deal off its October low. It seems strange to say after a very solid rally that now is the time when things looks good.

    I do pay a little attention to where the market is versus its 50- and 200-DMA. This is not for any trading guidelines but because historically the market is a trend-sensitive data set. Momentum does exist and it’s a powerful anomaly to current theory.

  • The Onion Was First
    , January 31st, 2012 at 10:54 am

    From April 23, 2007:

    Even CEO Can’t Figure Out How RadioShack Still In Business

    FORT WORTH, TX—Despite having been on the job for nine months, RadioShack CEO Julian Day said Monday that he still has “no idea” how the home electronics store manages to stay open.

    “There must be some sort of business model that enables this company to make money, but I’ll be damned if I know what it is,” Day said. “You wouldn’t think that people still buy enough strobe lights and extension cords to support an entire nationwide chain, but I guess they must, or I wouldn’t have this desk to sit behind all day.”

    The retail outlet boasts more than 6,000 locations in the United States, and is known best for its wall-sized displays of obscure-looking analog electronics components and its notoriously desperate, high-pressure sales staff. Nevertheless, it ranks as a Fortune 500 company, with gross revenues of over $4.5 billion and fiscal quarter earnings averaging tens of millions of dollars.

    “Have you even been inside of a RadioShack recently?” Day asked. “Just walking into the place makes you feel vaguely depressed and alienated. Maybe our customers are at the mall anyway and don’t feel like driving to Best Buy? I suppose that’s possible, but still, it’s just…weird.”

    From January 31, 2012:

    RadioShack shares drop 30% after forecast

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – Shares of RadioShack Corp RSH -29.13% plunged 30%, or $3.03, to $7.20 on Tuesday, a day after the electronics retailer said its fourth-quarter quarter earnings per share would be 11 cents to 13 cents, versus the expected 36 cents by analysts surveyed by FactSet. Janney Capital Markets downgraded the shares to neutral from buy and gave a fair value estimate at $7. Analysts at Janney said it was unclear when gross margin will bottom out and cited concerns over the firm’s weak performance around post-paid business with Sprint S -1.16%, its biggest carrier partner. In the fourth quarter, RadioShack’s gross margin narrowed to 35% from 41% a year ago.

  • Harris Beats By Three Cents
    , January 31st, 2012 at 10:47 am

    Today is a big earnings day for us. AFLAC ($AFL) and CR Bard ($BCR) report after the close. This morning, Harris Corp ($HRS) reported earnings of $1.22 per share which was three cents better than estimates. The December quarter is the second quarter of Harris’ fiscal year.

    “Harris posted solid second quarter results with earnings per share in line with the prior year, despite orders and revenue being dampened by the constrained government spending environment,” said William M. Brown, president and chief executive officer. “The sequential increase in operating income for the company, driven by operating margin improvement in all of our segments, was encouraging. Cash flow from operations increased significantly compared to the previous quarter and the prior year, supporting expectations for strong cash flow again this year.”

    This is a good earnings report from Harris. The only sour note, and it’s not a biggie, was the company’s revenue guidance for the entire year. Harris now sees revenues ranging between $6 billion and $6.2 billion. Wall Street had been expecting slightly more, $6.15 billion to $6.3 billion.

    On the plus side, Harris sees full-year EPS ranging between $5.10 and $5.30. That’s not bad at all. The Street had been expecting $5.07 per share. The stock is up nicely today. It’s currently over $40 per share which is still less than eight times this year’s earnings.