Posts Tagged ‘orcl’

  • CWS Market Review – September 9, 2011
    , September 9th, 2011 at 8:54 am

    As ugly as trading has been since mid-summer, the stock market is finally showing some strength lately. I was particularly impressed by Wednesday’s huge rally and by the fact that we didn’t give it all back on Thursday. Up till now, every rally has been met with an equal or greater sell-off.

    Over the past month, the S&P 500 has made three major bottoms and each time, we failed to go lower. While that’s certainly no proof that a new up phase is at hand, it may indicate that the worst is past us. Bear in mind that the S&P 500 hasn’t made a new closing low in one month.

    In this issue, I want to take a step back and address some issues impacting the broader economy and how they affect the financial markets. Don’t worry. I’ll steer away from any “econospeak,” and I’ll try to make it very easy to understand. First, the good news is that corporate profits have rebounded fairly well since the worst days of the financial crisis three years ago.

    Analysts on Wall Street still have pretty optimistic earnings forecasts for the rest of this year and into next year as well. For Q3, analysts see earnings for the S&P 500 coming in at $24.95. For Q4, they see profits of $26.23. That translates to profit growth of 15.72% and 19.61% respectively. In other words, earnings aren’t merely expected to grow but the rate of growth is expected to increase as well. I should caution you that these forecasts aren’t terribly reliable beyond a few months. The other good news is that corporate balance sheets are, as a whole, pretty strong.

    The big question, however, is “Why is the economy still doing so poorly, especially on the jobs front?” The answer is that it all comes down to housing. I’m making a huge generalization here, but economic recoveries in this country have often been fueled by the housing sector.

    Think of it this way: A developer’s decision to build a new 123-unit housing development or a brand-new 214-unit high-rise glass condo has a major ripple effect on the local economy. Except for a large government project, few things are as economically powerful as a new real estate construction project. You’re getting a big injection of money concentrated in one area all at once. Just think of how the cash flows through the local economy: the local contractors and sub-contractors get work. Those folks, in turn, spend their new cash at local stores and restaurants. What happens is that it starts a virtuous cycle.

    It doesn’t end there. The other aspect that feeds off housing is the financial sector. Most Americans have far more invested in their homes than in the stock market. New homeowners take out mortgages, then savers get their interest and the banks get their profits. Once again, the virtuous cycle feeds upon itself and everyone is happy.

    Yet this time, the housing sector is a bust because during the housing bubble, we built too many homes. Way too many homes! The Wall Street Journal recently reported, “Sales of newly built homes, which peaked at 1.3 million units in 2005, were running at an annual rate of just 298,000 units in July and are on pace to post the lowest count this year since record keeping began in 1963.”

    Obviously, those excess homes won’t get tossed into the garbage, so no one is willing to plunk down the cash to get a new development going. That oversupply of homes is weighing on the housing market like a ton of bricks. And not just the housing market; it also weighs on all those areas that rely on the housing market. Home prices are depressed and many Americans are underwater with their mortgages or barely in the black.

    The issue of bad mortgages has put enormous huge strain on banks as well. For example, we recently saw the financial world turn sharply against Bank of America ($BAC). This is an odd perception/reality dynamic because BAC is clearly far from being a sound institution, but it’s very hard to answer the question, “Do they need more capital?” (Bloomberg: Moynihan Tries to Keep Bank of America Intact as Mortgage Loans Fall Apart.) The bank said no, but investors said yes. Take a wild guess who won.

    Now we have this strange disconnect in financial markets which I’ve labeled the “Fear Trade.” This is when bonds, gold and volatility are up but stocks are down. Since corporate profits have been decent, P/E Ratios are especially depressed. As I mentioned in last week’s CWS Market Review, a Double Dip recession is far from certain. This week, in fact, we had better-than-expected news for the ISM Services index. We also learned that the trade deficit hit a three-month low. The trade deficit report was so good that Goldman Sachs has said there’s a sizable upside risk to their 1% GDP forecast for Q3.

    Strategists on Wall Street currently estimate that the S&P 500 will close this year at 1,353 which is a 14% run from here. One month ago, the consensus was that we’d finished the year at 1,401. So despite the market’s lousy mood, Wall Street really hasn’t pared back its estimates very much.

    Now I want to focus on two upcoming earnings reports. On Tuesday, September 20th, Oracle ($ORCL) will report its fiscal first-quarter earnings. I was shocked by how low ORCL’s share price was recently. For a few days, it dipped below $25, but Oracle’s business continues to be very strong. The company told us to expect Q1 earnings between 45 cents and 48 cents per share. Oh, please! That’s obviously too low. The consensus on Wall Street is for 47 cents per share. I’m expecting at least 51 cents per share.

    Oracle is a remarkably profitable company, plus they’re sitting on nearly $30 billion in cash. By the way, don’t believe any rumors that Oracle is going to buy Hewlett-Packard ($HPQ). That’s just crazy. My take is that Oracle is a very good buy below $30 per share.

    The other earnings report will come from Bed Bath & Beyond, ($BBBY) on the following day. Three months ago, the company gave us an outstanding earnings report, plus they raised their full-year forecast which shows you that good companies can prosper during rough times. For the upcoming earnings report, BBBY told us to expect earnings to range between 77 and 82 cents per share. My numbers say that 82 cents is about right.

    For this fiscal year (ending in May), BBBY should earn about $3.70 per share. I want to caution you that the stock has already done pretty well (it’s our second-best performer this year), so it’s not a screaming bargain right now. I’m going to hold my buy price on BBBY at $58 per share.

    That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • CWS Market Review – September 2, 2011
    , September 2nd, 2011 at 7:24 am

    Continuing with my theme from last week’s CWS Market Review, the “Fear Trade” that gripped Wall Street in July and August is slowly retreating. Every investor needs to understand how this dynamic is driving trading right now.

    What’s interesting is that the stock market isn’t so much rallying on good news as it’s rallying on the lack of bad news (or lack of “bad as expected” news). That’s how scared traders are. Nor is the market really rallying as much as it’s walking back to the ground it hurriedly fled from during the jittery days of July and August. My advice to investors is to expect the Fear Trade to continue to fade. Specifically, this means that stocks will cautiously gain ground while bonds, gold and volatility will pull back.

    From Friday through Wednesday, the S&P 500 put on its first four-day win streak in nearly two months. In fact, we’re probably two good days’ rallies away from breaking above the 50-day moving average. Some of this week’s rally was due to Hurricanes Irene and Bernanke not causing as much damaged as was feared.

    We can’t say this for certain yet, but imagine if this statement turned out to be true: “The summer sell-off ended 25 days ago and we’ve already made back 40% of the money we lost.” That may turn out to be correct and it has a very good chance of doing so, but you’d never know it by listening to some of the folks out there.

    Remember that the stock market isn’t a great predictor of the economy. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has fallen 17% or more 14 times, and nine of those times have seen recessions. The bond market, however, has a better track record. Bloomberg writes, “the economy has never contracted with the difference between 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields as wide as the current 1.38 percentage points, or 138 basis points.” That’s pretty eye-opening.

    Through Wednesday, the S&P 500 posted its best eight-day gain since 2009. At one point on Wednesday, the S&P 500 got as high as 1,230.71. Thursday looked like it was going to be our fifth-straight up day until more jitters about Friday’s employment report took hold (more on that in a bit). The initial good news on Thursday was that the ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 50.6 which was better-than-expected. There were even whispers that the ISM could print as low as the mid-40s. Fear, I suppose, is contagious.

    Let me explain this a little. The ISM Index has a decent track record of aligning with recessions and expansions and we’re still well above the danger zone. The worry was that we were rapidly falling into the danger zone. Historically, the economy has done fairly well, on average, when the ISM is in this territory. I checked the numbers and found that there were 49 times when the ISM printed between 50.0 and 51.0 and only three of those months have been during official NBER recessions.

    One month ago, Wall Street was rattled by the reports on consumer spending and factory orders. However, those reports were for the month of June which is in the second quarter. Well, we already knew that the economy was sluggish during Q2, yet the bears had a field day and smacked the bulls around. Now, one month later, those two reports for July turn out to be not so bad. We learned that consumer spending rebounded by 0.8% in July, which topped expectations by 0.3%. That was the biggest jump in five months. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that factory orders rose by 2.4% in July. That was the biggest increase since March. Yet the bulls are still the scared ones.

    So far, the Double Dip hypothesis has been sound and fury signifying not a whole lot. Let me be clear that I’m not saying a Double Dip won’t happen; I’m saying that the evidence proving the case, for now, is very small. At CWS Market Review, we’re guided by facts, not emotions. The good news for us is that we don’t need to predict the future with perfect accuracy to be good investors. But we do need to make reasonable judgments about the here and now.

    The fact is that the overall stock market is inexpensive. Let’s look at some numbers: Second quarter earnings for the S&P 500 came in at $24.85. That’s an 18.9% increase from one year ago. Wall Street currently expects 3Q earnings of $24.95 which is a 15.7% increase over last year. So far, we haven’t seen many companies lower guidance and this is particularly true for our Buy List stocks. In fact, they’ve been raising guidance.

    For all of 2011, Wall Street expects earnings of $98.59 for the S&P 500 (though I think $100 is possible). Since we’re already two-thirds of the way through the year, that forecast is probably pretty accurate. For 2012, Wall Street expects earnings of $112.67. Since that’s further out, we shouldn’t consider that number to be as reliable, and I think it may be too high.

    This means that going by Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 is trading at 12.22 times this year’s earnings estimate. Flip that over and you get an earnings yield of 8.19% which demolishes just about anything you can find in the frothy bond market. A ten-year T-bond is supposed to offer safety but…c’mon, is that really worth 600 basis points? I don’t think so. The Fear Trade has simply gone too far.

    The slightly better economic news comes at a crucial time for the Federal Reserve. The last FOMC meeting saw the largest dissension in two decades. The next meeting is scheduled for September 20-21. It was originally supposed to be a one-day meeting. I think the “hawks” now have the upper hand and I don’t expect another round of quantitative easing. For now.

    I’m writing this on Friday morning and Wall Street expects another dismal jobs report later today (expectations are for 70,000). I don’t blame them. However, the same dynamic is in play: traders expect to be disappointed so anything that fails to live up to that (or down to that) will be seen as good news. Be sure to check the blog to see how the August jobs report shakes out.

    As investors, we should continue to focus our attention on solid companies that are delivering steady earnings growth. Speaking of which, let’s jump to the best news of the week and that was the strong second-quarter earnings report from our Buy List member, Jos. A. Bank Clothiers ($JOSB). Three months ago, JOSB missed earnings by two cents and the stock got taken to the woodshed. This time, Wall Street was expecting 68 cents per share which I thought was on the low side. The earnings turned out to be even better than I expected. For Q2, JOSB reported earnings of 74 cents per share. Sales came in at $230.7 million which was $20 million more than consensus.

    On Wednesday, the stock gapped up as much as 11.8%. All across the board, Joey Bank’s numbers look very good. Same-store sales rose 14.7% and year-over-year direct marketing sales rose 27.8%. The company has grown its earnings for 39 of the last 40 quarters, including the last 21 quarters in a row.

    I had cautioned investors not to chase JOSB because I wanted to be certain that the company is on a firm footing. Now we have solid proof. I think JOSB can do $3.50 per share for this fiscal year. As a result, I’m raising my buy price on Jos. A. Bank Clothiers to $54 per share. This is our top-performing stock of the year, but I have to warn you that it can be highly volatile.

    I was surprised to see Nicholas Financial ($NICK) announce that it will start paying a quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share. Based on Thursday’s close, that works out to a yield of 3.78%. Not bad. If you’re a regular reader of Crossing Wall Street, you know that this is one of my favorite stocks. I think a fair price for NICK is at least $17 per share.

    I can’t say that I’m a huge fan of NICK paying a dividend, but I will say that there are many things worse that a company can do with shareholders’ money (poor acquisitions, share buybacks). You’ll never go broke cashing a dividend check, and NICK will have no trouble covering this dividend. I don’t have much faith that companies can engineer a higher share price outside of their very basic duty of delivering higher profits.

    I still believe that NICK can earn as much as $1.70 per share for this calendar year. The news that the Fed will keep rates low helps NICK, and the company just extended their credit line to $150 million. This is a really solid outfit. Nicholas Financial is an excellent buy up to $14 and it’s especially good below $11.

    Some other Buy List stocks that look particularly attractive here include Oracle ($ORCL), Reynolds American ($RAI), AFLAC ($AFL) and Wright Express ($WXS).

    That’s all for now. The market will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. I hope everyone has a restful long weekend. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • CWS Market Review – August 26, 2011
    , August 26th, 2011 at 6:48 am

    “Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffett

    Very true, Warren. Very true. Quietly, this past week has been a turning point for the stock market. The “Fear Trade” that gripped Wall Street this summer is slowly beginning to unravel. Specifically, the Fear Trade consisted of investors dumping cyclicals especially and crowding into gold and Treasury bonds. Starting on July 22nd, the Wall Street bears had been in complete command. Every rally was yet another opportunity to short. That is, until this week. After a staggering $2 trillion was shed by the S&P 500, the Fear Trade has finally gotten some (minor) pushback.

    I’ll give you an example of what I mean: The S&P 500 made very similar closing lows on August 8th (1,119.46) and August 10th (1,120.76) and then again on August 19th (1,123.53) and August 22nd (1,123.82). Notice how close together those lows are. Yet the bears weren’t able to bring us any lower. That’s a telling sign.

    It’s still too early to say if this is the beginning of a major leg up, but it probably signals that the worse of the Fear Trade is past us. On closer inspection, much of the negative news was vastly overhyped (I’m looking at you, S&P downgrade). We had some promising rallies on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday looked to be a good day until the German market tanked. Still, I like the trend that I’m seeing.

    The pushback isn’t just happening in the stock market; let’s look at what’s happening in Bondistan. Last Thursday, the yield on the ten-year Treasury dropped below 2% and the five-year plunged to an absurd 0.79%. The three-month LIBOR rate is actually less than the two-year Treasury yield. Dear Lord, I don’t know what to say about prices like that except that it shows us how much fear there was in the market. The short-term Treasuries even pulled a Blutarsky. In the CWS Market Review from three weeks ago, I wrote “All across the board, investors are dumping risk and hoarding security. Fear is giving greed a major beat-down.”

    Well, greed is getting back on its feet. The five-year T-note recently broke above 1%. Of course, that’s far from normal, but the key is that people aren’t suddenly dumping bonds and hoarding stocks. Instead, they’re walking back from some of the fear that took hold of the markets this summer.

    With the Fear Trade, the riskier an asset was (or was perceived to be), the worse it did. Junk bonds, for example, have been getting beaten like a rented step-mule. The Wall Street Journal recently wrote: “The spread on the Barclays Capital High Yield Index over Treasurys widened to 7.66 percentage points this week—the highest since November 2009—from 5.87 percentage points at the end of July.”

    The clearest area where the Fear Trade is coming unglued is in the gold pits. On Wednesday, gold dropped $104 per ounce which is one of its biggest plunges ever. Earlier this week, gold peaked at $1,917 per ounce and it closed the day on Thursday at $1,775.20. As long as real rates are low, gold will do well; but the metal has gotten ahead of itself. Once the Fear Trade got going, investors headed into the only areas that were working. Soon that turned into a flood and everything else got left behind (AFLAC at $35?). I remember when the Nasdaq peaked 11 years ago and there were healthy REITs that were paying 12% dividend yields. Only in retrospect do we see how insane that was.

    I’m writing this early Friday morning and the big news due later today is the Ben Bernanke speech at the Fed’s annual shindig in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I don’t expect any news, but too many people who ought to know better think the Fed will announce another round of Quantitative Easing. That simply isn’t going to happen. As a result, many traders expect Wall Street to be disappointed if QE3 doesn’t come our way. Call me a doubter, but that may have weighed on the stock market on Thursday. If anything, some of the recent data takes pressure off of Bernanke and the Fed.

    The other important item on Friday will be the first revision to second-quarter GDP growth. The initial report said that the economy grew by 1.3% during the second three months of the year. Wall Street expects that to be revised slightly and they’re probably right. Still, the second quarter is now well within our rear-view mirror. I’m more concerned with the rest of Q3 and Q4.

    Now let’s look at what’s happening with our Buy List. We only had one earnings report this past week which was from Medtronic ($MDT). The company reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 79 cents per share which matched Wall Street’s estimate. I wasn’t expecting much of an earnings surprise or shortfall. Honestly, this company has some problems, but ultimately, I think they’re manageable. I’d really like to see Medtronic become a leaner and meaner outfit and I think the new CEO agrees.

    The best news is that they reiterated their full-year guidance of $3.43 to $3.50 per share. As I’ve said before, never dismiss these “reiterations.” Hearing that things are still “on track” is news. If you recall, MDT slashed their full-year guidance several times last year.

    Let’s run through some numbers here: Shares of MDT dropped from over $43 in May to nearly $30 this month. The shares rallied on the earnings report not because the news was good but probably because there wasn’t any bad news. You often see that in value investing when investors get so disgusted by a stock that they expect to be disappointed. As odd as it may sound, that’s often a good buying opportunity.

    Even the low end of Medtronic’s range tells us that the stock is going for less than 10 times this year’s earnings estimate. That’s a good value. The stock currently yields 2.86% and the dividend has been raised for the last 34 years in a row. Medtronic is a good buy below $35 per share.

    We only have one earnings report due next week and that’s from Jos. A. Bank Clothiers ($JOSB) on Monday. If you recall, JOSB got smacked hard in June when the company’s fiscal Q1 earnings came in two cents below consensus. That two-penny miss caused the stock to plunge more than 13% in one day.

    For Monday, the Street expects earnings of 68 cents per share. Sales should rise about 11% to $210 million. I should warn you that since JOSB doesn’t provide guidance, the earnings can vary widely from consensus. Sixty-eight cents sounds slightly low but I’m afraid traders are very strongly biased to be disappointed by whatever JOSB says. My advice is to not be surprised by a pullback. If you don’t already own JOSB, hold on. If you don’t own it, don’t chase it. If JOSB’s earnings come in at 70 cents or more and the stock pulls back below, it will be a very good buying opportunity. I’ll have more on the earnings report on the blog.

    I also want to highlight Oracle ($ORCL) which looks very good at this level. In seven weeks, the shares have dropped from $34 to $26 yet their business outlook remains unchanged. The next earnings report should be out in mid-September. Oracle is an excellent buy below $25.

    That’s all for now. There’s some talk going around that the NYSE might be closed due to Hurricane Irene. I’ll let you know as soon as I do. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • Oracle’s Low Valuation
    , August 19th, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    The chart really says it all. Oracle‘s ($ORCL) stock is the blue line and it follows the left scale. The earnings line is yellow and it follows the right scales. The two axes are scaled at a ratio of 15-to-1 so whenever the lines cross, the P/E Ratio is exactly 15. The red line is the earnings estimates.

  • CWS Market Review – July 1, 2011
    , July 1st, 2011 at 6:45 am

    The first half of 2011 is now on the books and our Buy List had a very good showing. For the first six months of this year, our Buy List gained 7.27% which is a nice lead over the S&P 500 which gained 5.01% (or 5.0094%, to be precise).

    (As a side note, let me add that I’m pretty impressed at how well the 200-day moving average served as a lower bound for the S&P 500. We had two bounces and a rally. The S&P 500 just closed above 1,320 for the first time in a month. Technical analysis may have little academic respect, but it’s oddly important because everyone else thinks everyone thinks it’s important.)

    When we include dividends, our Buy List gained 8.13% compared with 6.02% for the S&P 500. Bear in mind that we did this without making one single change to our Buy List for the entire year. Absolutely zero trading.

    Frankly, one of the smart moves we made is that our Buy List has a good weighting of healthcare stocks, and healthcare was the top-performing sector for the second quarter. It’s also the best-performing sector for the year so far. If our Buy List keeps delivering, 2011 will be the fifth-straight year that our set-and-forget Buy List has beaten the market. Once again, sloth and patience are an investor’s best friends.

    Also, being well-diversified helped us out. Seventeen of the Buy List’s twenty stocks are up for the year while only Ford (F), AFLAC ($AFL) and JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) are in the red. Our top-performing stock for the year is Jos. A. Banks ($JOSB), which I never would have expected. JOSB is up 24.03% for the year, and that includes the stock’s big 13.3% one-day plunge from a month ago. Fortunately, the shares have recovered a little bit and they closed above $50 for the first time since the last earnings report.

    For those of you keeping score, JOSB dropped over $11 after missing earnings by one penny per share. That’s 1,100 pennies lost due to a one-penny-per-share miss. I thought this was a dramatic over-reaction and the market apparently agrees. Now that JOSB has hit my $50 buy price, I’m raising it this week to $53 per share. JOSB is a good buy.

    In last week’s issue, I highlighted Bed Bath & Beyond’s ($BBBY) great earnings report and higher guidance. The shares have rallied impressively ever since. Not only did BBBY take out its 52-week high from April, but the stock also broke $58 per share which was my new buy price from last week. The stock has managed to become our second-best performer for the year, up 18.76%. For now, I’m going to hold off raising the buy price. BBBY continues to be a very strong buy up to $58 per share.

    The other stock I highlighted last week was Oracle ($ORCL). I feel vindicated because I said that it released a very good earnings report although the market dumped the shares in the very short term. During the after-hours session from last Thursday, Oracle got as low as $30. The shares have so far closed higher every day this week, and on Thursday ORCL came very close to breaking the $33 barrier. Thank you, patience and sloth! Oracle continues to be a very good buy up to $34.

    I’ve also been impressed with how some of our quieter stocks have performed. Abbott Labs ($ABT), for example, is up nearly 10% for the year and that doesn’t include its very generous dividend (now yielding 3.65%). Wright Express ($WXS) is up over 10% in the last nine trading sessions. Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) is inches away from a new 52-week high.

    Now that the second quarter is behind us, earnings season will start soon. The upcoming earnings season has a very good shot of being an all-time record for the S&P 500. The previous record was set during the second quarter of 2007. Despite the fact that corporate profits are returning to the same level of four years ago, the S&P 500 is down over 12% over that same time. Furthermore, interest rates are much lower so you would expect earnings multiples to be higher, not lower.

    Speaking of which, perhaps the most important event of the past few days has been the mass exodus out of the bond market. To be precise, this isn’t a new move in the market. Instead, it’s a sign that the dramatic reaction to the problems in Greece is slowly unwinding. What happened is that nervous investors crowded into trades like the Swiss franc and mid-term U.S. Treasuries. Investors also shied away from many financial stocks, and both AFL and JPM were causalities. Now that the worst fears are passing, these trades are fading as well. AFL, for example, just popped over $46. Most surprisingly, the euro is actually higher (!!) which I thought might never happen again.

    Over the last four days, the yield on the three-year Treasury jumped by 24 basis points. The five- and seven-year notes increased by 36 and 37 basis points, respectively. That’s a very big move for such a short period of time. Some folks think this is due to the completion of the Fed’s QE2 policy. I doubt that. We all knew QE2 would end some day, plus the Fed will still be a big buyer of Treasuries.

    What’s really going on is that investors are now more willing to take on more risk. The big beneficiary is the U.S. stock market. The four-day rally has added more than 4% to the S&P 500, and the index just closed at its highest level in nearly a month. This was our best four-day move in nine months. On top of that, this is a seasonally strong time of the year for the stock market.

    Lately, Wall Street has had a tough time getting a good read on the economy. What happened is that a lot of economists had been overly optimistic with their economic projections. As a result, they lowered their forecasts. But now, the numbers keep topping those lowered projections. It’s a combination of over-reaction and reading long-term trends into only a few points of data.

    The upcoming ISM report, which comes out Friday morning, and next Friday’s employment report will tell us a lot about where the economy is headed. If these numbers are strong, I think the third quarter will be a very good one for stocks and our Buy List.

    Be sure to keep visiting the blog for daily updates. The stock market will be closed on Monday for July 4th. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • Oracle Earns 75 Cents Per Share
    , June 23rd, 2011 at 4:07 pm

    Oracle ($ORCL) just reported earnings of 75 cents per share which beat the Street by four cents. Revenue came inline at $10.8 billion which Wall Street won’t like. The shares are down about 6% after-hours which probably won’t last until tomorrow’s open.

    Yes, hardware sales dropped by 6% but that makes up about one-tenth of Oracle’s overall business.

    Let’s remember that Wall Street was originally expecting 66 cents per share. Only after the company gave us guidance of 69 cents to 73 cents did the Street go up to 71 cents. And we learned today that the company delivered 75 cents per share. Folks, this was a good report.

    Oracle Corporation today announced fiscal 2011 Q4 GAAP total revenues were up 13% to $10.8 billion, while non-GAAP total revenues were up 12% to $10.8 billion. Both GAAP and non-GAAP new software license revenues were up 19% to $3.7 billion. Both GAAP and non-GAAP software license updates and product support revenues were up 15% to $4.0 billion. Both GAAP and non-GAAP hardware systems products revenues were down 6% to $1.2 billion. GAAP operating income was up 32% to $4.4 billion, and GAAP operating margin was 40%. Non-GAAP operating income was up 19% to $5.2 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 48%. GAAP net income was up 36% to $3.2 billion, while non-GAAP net income was up 27% to $3.9 billion. GAAP earnings per share were $0.62, up 34% compared to last year while non-GAAP earnings per share were up 25% to $0.75. GAAP operating cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis was $11.2 billion.

    For fiscal year 2011, GAAP total revenues were up 33% to $35.6 billion, while non-GAAP total revenues were up 33% to $35.9 billion. Both GAAP and non-GAAP new software license revenues were up 23% to $9.2 billion. GAAP software license updates and product support revenues were up 13% to $14.8 billion, while non-GAAP software license updates and product support revenues were up 13% to $14.9 billion. Both GAAP and non-GAAP hardware systems products revenues were $4.4 billion. GAAP operating income was up 33% to $12.0 billion, and GAAP operating margin was 34%. Non-GAAP operating income was up 27% to $15.9 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 44%. GAAP net income was up 39% to $8.5 billion, while non-GAAP net income was up 34% to $11.4 billion. GAAP earnings per share were $1.67, up 38% compared to last year while non-GAAP earnings per share were up 33% to $2.22.

    “In Q4, we achieved a 19% new software license growth rate with almost no help from acquisitions,” said Oracle President and CFO, Safra Catz. “This strong organic growth combined with continuously improving operational efficiencies enabled us to deliver a 48% operating margin in the quarter. As our results reflect, we clearly exceeded even our own high expectations for Sun’s business.”

  • Why Oracle Is a Good Value
    , June 15th, 2011 at 9:54 am

    Oracle‘s ($ORCL) fiscal Q4 earnings report comes out next week and I wanted to pass along this chart of the stock along with its earnings-per-share trend.

    As I usually do, I put the share price in blue and it follows the left scale while the EPS is in gold and it follows the right scale. The two lines are scaled at a ratio of 16 to 1 which means that the P/E Ratio is exactly 16 whenever the lines cross. The future part of the earnings line represents Wall Street’s consensus.

    The chart makes a few important points more clearly in graphic form than I could explain verbally. The first is that Oracle’s valuation is still rather subdued. The stock’s P/E Ratio is almost exactly the same as the S&P 500’s even though its earnings have fared much better than the overall market. As you can see, the earnings line was barely impacted by one of the worst recessions of the last 70 years. The rest of Corporate America, in contrast, saw its earnings plunge and we still haven’t made record earnings yet.

    The other point is that you can see how tepid Wall Street’s earnings projections are. If the future earnings projection is correct, it would be a dramatic deceleration of earnings growth (slowing of growth).

    I understand the need for conservative estimates and that’s most likely the sounder strategy, but I wanted to show you precisely what that means. If Oracle’s stock keeps tracking its earnings, I think it’s very likely that the stock will hit $36 before the end of the year. That’s about a 13% jump from yesterday’s close.

    Oracle likes to the play the “set-the-bar-low-and-guide-higher” game, and they play it very well. In March, for example, Oracle “shocked” Wall Street when it said it was expecting fiscal Q4 earnings to range between 69 cents and 73 cents per share.

    I think it’s interesting that Oracle was willing to give us this news when the quarter wasn’t even one month old. At the time, the Street was expecting 66 cents per share. Now the consensus is up to 71 cents per share.

    The company also gave us a 20% dividend increase recently. (Well…it was from five cents to six cents.) Look for a modest earnings beat, say, 73 cents per share. I’ll be interested to hear any guidance for the August quarter. Wall Street currently expects earnings of 46 cents per share.

  • WSJ Table on CEO Compensation
    , May 9th, 2011 at 9:30 am

    The Wall Street Journal has a cool table today on CEO compensation at 350 top companies. Oracle‘s ($ORCL) Larry Ellison pulled in $68 million while Steve Jobs at Apple ($AAPL) made nothing.