Posts Tagged ‘syy’

  • CWS Market Review – November 4, 2011
    , November 4th, 2011 at 6:23 am

    Even though October was the eighth-best month for the S&P 500 of the last 70 years, the market has taken back some of those gains thanks to the recent political chaos in Greece. Here’s what happened: George Papandreou, the Greek Prime Minister, surprised everyone on Monday by putting the euro zone bailout plan up for a referendum. Simply put, that freaked out everyone—and I mean everyone.

    For a few hours it looked like Greece was really honestly going to default. Monsieur Sarkozy said that the Greeks wouldn’t get a single cent in aid if they didn’t adhere to the original terms of the bailout. It got so bad that the European bailout fund had to cancel a bond offering. Yields on two-year notes in Greece jumped to 112%.

    Yes, 112%.

    The ECB, under its new head Mario Draghi, stepped in and cut rates by 0.25% which seemed to calm folks down. At least for a little while. Only after his party revolted against the idea did Papandreou decide to ditch the referendum. That’s what traders wanted to hear. On Thursday, the S&P 500 jumped 1.88%, and the index is now up barely for the year.

    So we dodged a bullet for the time being, but we’re not yet out of the woods. I think it’s obvious that Greece will get the aid although the details are still unclear. My fear is that this latest cure only addresses the symptoms and not the underlying problem.

    The issue isn’t that Greece mismanaged its finances (which it did) but rather that the euro zone as currently constructed is inherently unworkable. As it now stands, the countries on the periphery of Europe have to run massive trade deficits with the heart of Europe (Germany, mostly), and without the ability to downgrade their currencies, they’re forced to run large public-sector deficits.

    The equation boils down to this: The euro zone needs fiscal union or the euro dies. Perhaps a smaller euro zone could make it. If the EU was just a trading club for the rich nations of Western Europe, fine—that might work. But what’s happening now, I fear, is just delaying a problem that can’t be avoided.

    The problems in Europe are having an unusual side effect on the stock market here. What we’re seeing is an unusually high correlation among stocks. In other words, nearly every stock is moving in the same direction, whether it’s up or down. It’s important for investors to understand this. The last time correlation was this high was in October 1987 when the market crashed.

    Bespoke Investment Group, one of my favorite sites, tracks what it calls “all or nothing days” which is when the advance/decline line for the S&P 500 exceeds plus or minus 400. Since the start of August, more than half of the trading days have been “all or nothing days” which is a rate far greater than seen in previous years. The current market divide has energy, industrial, material and most importantly, financial stocks, soaring on up days, while volatility, gold and bonds rally on down days. The market is behaving like a legislature that has only extremists and no moderates.

    I don’t believe the high correlation portends any ugliness for the U.S. market. Instead, I think it reflects the dominance of geo-political events over the market. Though one important side effect is that when everyone moves the same way, it becomes much harder for hedge fund managers to stand out from the crowd. That’s why we’ve seen crazy action in stocks like Amazon.com ($AMZN) and Netflix ($NFLX).

    As depressing as the news is from Europe, there’s been more cause for optimism here in the U.S. While the economy is far from strong, it appears that the threat of a Double Dip recession in the near-term has fizzled. Last week, we learned that the economy grew by 2.5% for the third quarter. Job growth, of course, has been distressingly poor.

    I’m writing this early Friday morning ahead of the big jobs report. Economists expect that the jobless rate will remain unchanged at 9.1% and that 100,000 new jobs were created last month. Even if we hit that expectation, that’s still pretty poor.

    The good news is that this has been a decent earnings season for the market and especially for our Buy List. The S&P 500 is on track to post record quarterly earnings. The latest numbers show that of the 415 S&P 500 stocks that have reported so far, 288 have beaten expectations, 89 have missed and 38 were in line with estimates. Outside the S&P 500, 64.5% of companies have beaten estimates and that’s better than the previous two quarters. Our Buy List has done even better. Of the 12 Buy List stocks that have reported so far, ten have beaten earnings estimates, one missed and one was inline.

    On Tuesday, Fiserv ($FISV) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.16 per share which was two cents better than estimates. The company also raised its full-year guidance (man, I love typing those words) from $4.42 – $4.54 per share to $4.54 – $4.60 per share. Shortly before the earnings report, Fiserv’s stock gapped up to over $61 but then pulled back after the earnings report came out. Fiserv is a good buy up to $62 per share.

    Our star for the week and perhaps for the entire earnings season was Wright Express ($WXS). The stock soared 12% on Wednesday after its blowout earnings report. The company, which helps firms track their expenses for their vehicle fleets, reported third-quarter earnings of 99 cents per share which was six cents better than Wall Street’s consensus. That’s a 38% jump over last year. The company also said that it expects between 88 cents and 94 cents per share for the fourth quarter (the Street was expecting 94 cents per share). I was happy to see Wright extend its gain on Thursday as well. I rate Wright Express a buy up to $53.

    The big disappointment this week came from Becton, Dickinson ($BDX). For their fiscal fourth quarter, Becton reported earnings of $1.39 per share which was inline with Wall Street’s estimate. The problem was their guidance for the coming year. Becton said that they expect earnings to range between $5.75 and $5.85 per share. That’s far below Wall Street’s forecast of $6.19 per share. I’m disappointed by this news but Becton is still a solid company. Sometime later this month the company will likely raise its dividend for the 39th year in a row. Investors shouldn’t chase this one but if the shares pull back below $65, I think Becton will be a good buy.

    I also need to explain what happened to Leucadia National ($LUK) this week. A ratings company downgraded Jefferies ($JEF) in the wake of the immolation of MF Global. Leucadia owns about one-quarter of Jefferies so that impacted their stock as well. However, it’s not clear that Jefferies’s health is anywhere as dire as MF Global’s. Actually, the facts indicate that it’s almost certainly not.

    At one point on Thursday, shares of Jefferies were off by more than 20% but cooler heads prevailed and the stock finished the session down by just 2.1%. Leucadia took advantage of the panic and picked up one million shares of JEF. At the end of the day, Leucadia’s stock managed to close six cents higher. The stock remains an excellent buy. By the way, this a good lesson on why you should be careful with stop-losses. Panic can set in and bust you out of good trades.

    That’s all for now. In addition to tomorrow’s big jobs report, Moog ($MOG-A) is due to report earnings. Then on Monday, Sysco ($SYY) is scheduled to report. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • CWS Market Review – August 19, 2011
    , August 19th, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    The stock market seemed to be recovering for a few days. That is, until Thursday hit. From the S&P 500’s low of August 9th (1,101.54) to the high of this past Wednesday, August 17th (1,208.47), the market gained an impressive 9.7%. We’re still a way from the recent peak of July 22nd, but it’s nice to regain some lost ground. The bears, however, got back in control on Thursday and shaved another 4.46% off the index.

    So where do we go from here? It’s still hard to say but in this issue of CWS Market Review, I want to discuss some likely scenarios and more importantly, tell you how to position yourself for the weeks ahead.

    Initially, I was never terribly impressed with the arguments made by the folks who were expecting a Double Dip recession. After all, these folks already blew this call last year as their worrying helped bring down the market by 18%. All their panicking did was offer up some great bargains. Anyone else remember when Wright Express ($WXS) broke below $30 last summer? Thank you, panic sellers!

    Over the past few days, I’ve become more convinced that the fears of a Double Dip recession are, as of now, vastly overblown. As always, let’s look at the facts rather than at our emotions.

    Earlier this week, the government released its industrial production report for the month of July, and it showed the largest increase in four months. This is important because most of the other reports were for the month of June which was in the second quarter. Only now are we getting a better handle on the third quarter which is already more than half over. For July, industrial production rose by 0.9% which nearly doubled the 0.5% expected by Wall Street. Also, capacity utilization hit 77.5%, a three-year high.

    Last week, the number of initial claims for unemployment dropped below 400,000 for the first time in 17 weeks. Yesterday’s report showed that we jumped up to 408,000 but the trend is still favorable. Also, the recent report on retail sales was the strongest in four months. This is important because it reflects the strength of consumers, the backbone of the U.S. economy. For July, the Commerce Department said that retail sales rose by 0.5%.

    I don’t want to ignore the bad spots. Housing is still a mess and the jobs market is bleak. The recent Consumer Confidence survey was terrible. It was the lowest number since the Carter Administration. Also, I wasn’t exactly thrilled by the ISM report at the beginning of the month. But even that mediocre report is still a long way from a recession. We have to view the actual news in context of what everyone else’s perception is. Bear in mind that the 10-year Treasury dropped below 2% and the 10-year TIPs is negative. The fear on Wall Street is massively overdone.

    My view is that the economy will probably bounce along at a growth rate between 1% and 2% or so. For folks out of work, that’s bad news. But the outlook for corporate profits and, by extension, the stock market, is still pretty decent especially considering the cheap valuations and extremely low Treasury yields.

    I took notice earlier this week when both Home Depot ($HD) and Walmart ($WMT) reported higher-than-expected earnings; plus both companies raised their full-year earnings guidance. I can’t think of a company that better reflects the breath of American shoppers than Walmart. We’re not yet seeing earnings revisions from most companies. Wall Street still expects the S&P 500 to earn close to $100 this year and $113 for next year, though I think the latter number should probably be close to $105.

    Due to the sluggishness of the economy, I still encourage investors to steer clear of most of the cyclical names. I’m writing this early on Friday and the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) actually broke below 800 very briefly. That’s a stunning 28% collapse in just six weeks. That’s the thing about cyclicals—they move in cycles. When everything is good, it’s very, very good. When it’s not, get out of the way.

    I’m inclined to believe that the worst of the selling has past. That doesn’t mean we won’t go lower from here, but future selling won’t match that selling we’ve already seen. Bear attacks usually end before most investors realize it. I’m also struck by the persistence of high volatility. Instead of reflecting danger in the markets, I think high volatility is more of a reflection of the war between the Double Dip and Anti-Double Dip camps. Once the market settles on a thesis, I expect a quick return to low volatility, but there will be fits and starts along the way.

    I still like a lot of the names on our Buy List. Let me highlight a few that look especially good right now. I noticed that Oracle ($ORCL) dropped down below $26 per share. Let’s remember that this company has been consistently beating earnings, and Wall Street has been raising estimates. For this current fiscal year (ending in May), Wall Street expects earnings of $2.41 which gives ORCL a forward P/E Ratio of 10.6.

    I have to fess up that I blew my Sysco ($SYY) call. In last week’s issue of CWS Market Review, I said expect earnings of 60 cents per share, plus or minus two cents. Instead, Sysco reported 57 cents per share which matched Wall Street’s estimate. The shares got pounded hard on Monday and they’ve continued to retreat.

    It turns out what I missed is that the company was hurt by food cost inflation more than I expected. That put the squeeze on margins which is what every business hates. However, in pure operational terms, I think Sysco had a decent quarter. When we look at a company, we have to discern between manageable problems and non-manageable ones. For Sysco, higher food costs are ultimately very manageable. The silver lining is that Sysco now yields over 3.8%. This is a very good stock to own below $28.

    We’re soon going to get earnings reports from our companies that have quarters ending in July. Medtronic ($MDT) is due to report this Tuesday, August 23rd. Jos. A. Bank ($JOSB) will probably report around September 1st. Wall Street expects earnings of 79 cents per share for MDT which sounds about right. Frankly, even if they miss by a little, Medtronic is so cheap right now that the stock shouldn’t be too dented. The stock currently yields a little over 3%. Medtronic is a good buy below $32.

    That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • CWS Market Review – August 12, 2011
    , August 12th, 2011 at 11:25 am

    As dramatic as the markets were last week, things got even more frenetic this week. Over the past four days, the Dow closed down 634, up 429, down 519 and up 423. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at almost exactly the same level it closed at two days before. It’s like watching some crazy football play where the running back scampers all over the field only to wind up back at the line of scrimmage.

    In this week’s issue of CWS Market Review, I want to break down what’s happening and why, but I also want to tell investors what’s the best strategy to do with their money. The silver lining in all this crazy volatility is that there are some impressive bargains right now on our Buy List.

    The big story of this past week, outside the down/up/down/up market, was Tuesday’s Fed meeting. Over the past several months, these FOMC meetings have been snoozefests. After all, what can you do when interest rates are already at 0%? This time, however, the Fed actually made some news.

    In the post-meeting policy statement, they added important new language:

    The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

    Bear in mind that central bankers are bred to speak in understated tones, so this statement is a pretty big deal. What Bernanke & Co. are saying is that the economy and inflation will be soft for at least two more years (which includes Election Day, by the way). Many folks in the market had suspected this was the case, but this is the first time we’ve heard the news right from Big Ben himself.

    What’s happening is that S&P’s downgrade of our debt, while a bit silly in my opinion, is having major repercussions, though interestingly, not on the market for our debt. The S&P downgrade took the idea of further fiscal stimulus off the table. In other words, don’t expect Congress to act. More stimulus spending takes political will and that simply no longer exists.

    Without the possibility of fiscal stimulus, all responsibility is placed on monetary policy—meaning the Federal Reserve. As a result we’ve been experiencing this odd combination of soaring Treasuries and soaring gold combined with weak and highly volatile stocks. Everyone is running for cover. Gold is soaring because it acts as a hedge against real short-term interest rates. As long as short-term rates are running below inflation, gold is poised to do well. It’s as if Bernanke gave commodity investors the green light—or perhaps the gold light.

    What also made this past Fed meeting interesting is that there were three dissensions to the Fed policy statement. The Fed isn’t like the Supreme Court. They work very hard to get the effect of the broad consensus. If someone disagreed, then they really didn’t like the policy. The vote for the last policy statement was 7-3. There are currently two vacancies but we do have to wonder if it’s possible for Bernanke to be overruled at some point by the inflation hawks. That hasn’t happened to a Fed chair in 25 years.

    What’s really stood out in my mind is the dramatic volatility of the past few days. I have a slightly different view of volatility than you often hear in the financial media. Volatility isn’t necessarily bad for the market. I think periods of high volatility reflect the violent clashing of multiple views on what’s driving the market. It’s as if two schools of thought are fighting for supremacy.

    The bone-on contention is what shape the economy is in right now. Some investors think we’re headed right back for another recession. Personally, I think it’s too early to say. However, I do believe that it’s best for investors to lighten up on their economically-sensitive stocks. I also think we’ll see this crazy volatility begin to fade once traders get back from the beach after Labor Day.

    Many financial stocks have come in for an especially severe pounding this month, but I think that’s become overdone, especially for the high-quality ones. In the CWS Market Review from four weeks ago, I said that I was “particularly leery” of financials like Citigroup ($C), Bank of America ($BAC) and Morgan Stanley ($MS). Since then, those three banks have fallen 22%, 28% and 14% respectively. As bad as they are, every stock has a price.

    On our Buy List, I think financials like JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) and AFLAC ($AFL) are very good buys. Not only is Nicholas Financial ($NICK) a great buy but I think the recent Fed news actually helps them since short-term rates will continue to be very low for some time. NICK makes their money on the spread between short-term rates and what they lend out to their customers.

    For investors, the important lesson is that when times get difficult, you always want to look at dividends. Accountants can do crazy things with a balance sheet, but dividends tend to be very stable. Even during the past recession, once you discount the financial sector, most dividends hung in there. That’s why I want to highlight some of the top yielders on the Buy List.

    Abbott Labs ($ABT), for example, is now yielding 3.7%. Even Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) is yielding close to 3.5%. AFLAC ($AFL) is over 3% and Medtronic ($MDT) isn’t far behind. Tiny Deluxe ($DLX) saw its yield come close to 5%. Most of these companies can easily cover their dividends, and a few have paid rising dividends for decades.

    On Monday, Sysco ($SYY) will be our final earnings report of the second quarter. From what I see, the company is in pretty good shape. Wall Street expects earnings of 57 cents per share which is exactly what SYY earned a year ago. I think that’s a bit low. My numbers say that Sysco earned 60 cents per share, plus or minus two cents.

    I think it’s interesting that the recent market pullback has impacted a non-cyclical stock like Sysco far less dramatically than it has the rest of the market. Even in this market, Sysco currently yields 3.6% which is a very good deal. The company has increased its dividend for the past 41-straight years and I think they’ll make it 42-straight in November, although it will probably be a one-cent increase. Still, that’s not bad in an environment where a 10-year Treasury goes for just over 2%.

    That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

  • CWS Market Review – May 20, 2011
    , May 20th, 2011 at 8:59 am

    For several weeks now, I’ve warned investors that cyclical stocks are due to underperform the broader market. My favorite cyclical gauge, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index ($CYC), reached its peak against the S&P 500 in mid-February, but only recently has it started to lag the market badly.

    To give you an example of how the market’s mood has changed, on Tuesday the S&P 500 lost just 0.04% while the CYC dropped 1.51%. Investors are clearly flocking out of cyclical names for safe shelter in defensive stocks. Don’t weep for cyclical stocks—they’ve had an amazing two-year run. If the Dow Jones had kept pace with the CYC since its March 2009 low, it would be over 25,000 today.

    I strongly encourage investors to tilt their portfolios away from cyclical stocks. I think we’re in for a multi-year period of cyclical underperformance. That’s how these cycles usually work. Outside of a small number of cyclical stocks like Ford ($F), your portfolios will be best served by quality stocks in defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples.

    Fortunately, our Buy List is already light on cyclicals and our defensive issues have been helping us outpace the market. In fact, we’ve nearly doubled the market so far this year. We’re on pace toward beating the S&P 500 for the fifth year in a row. Through Thursday, our Buy List is up 12.14% for 2011 compared with just 6.84% for the S&P 500.

    Healthcare is the single-largest component of our Buy List, and it’s the top-performing market sector this year. Several of our healthcare stocks, like Abbott Labs ($ABT), Becton Dickinson ($BDX), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) and Medtronic ($MDT), have hit new 52-week highs in recent days—and Stryker ($SYK) looks to hit a new high any day now. Also, many of our consumer stocks look very strong. Reynolds American ($RAI) is a 21% winner on the year and Jos. A. Banks ($JOSB) is up over 40% for us.

    I should point out that we’re starting to see some signs of the bull maturing. An obvious example is the huge post-IPO surge for LinkedIn ($LNKD). The stock soared 109% on its first day of trading which reminds me of the kind of investor frenzy we saw during the Tech Bubble. We’re also seeing analysts on Wall Street analysts paring back their earnings estimates for this year and next. It’s not a lot so far but it may signal that most of the easy gains are already gone.

    What I find amazing is that investors still craze short-term bond maturities. I can’t decide which is more detached from reality—investors paying several hundred times earnings for LinkedIn or that the yield on the two-year Treasury note is now down to just 0.55%.

    There’s still plenty of good news for patient investors. Q1 earnings season was a good one for the market although the earnings “beat rate” was down a lot from previous quarters. I was pleased to see that sales growth for the S&P 500 topped 10% for the first time in five years. There are also some positive technical signs. For example, the put-to-call ratio is at a two-month high.

    After breaking 1,370 on May 2nd, the stock market has been in a slight down trend for most of this month. This past Tuesday, the S&P 500 dropped below 1,320 for the first time in one month. Recently, however, the bulls have started to reassert themselves. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 had its biggest rally in three weeks. The market rallied again on Thursday thanks to the jobless claims report beating expectations.

    I still believe this is a market that will be friendly towards investors in high-quality stocks like our Buy List. The yield curve is very wide and that’s historically bullish for stocks. Plus, yields on many of our Buy List stocks are very competitive with what’s being offered in the bond market. Abbott Labs ($ABT) currently yields 3.34%, Deluxe ($DLX) yields 3.75% and Sysco ($SYY) is at 3.12%. Even a blue chip like J&J ($JNJ) yields 3.25%.

    I also wanted to comment on AFLAC ($AFL) since I’ve recommended it so highly this year. The stock got hit for a 6.31% loss on Wednesday and I want you to know exactly what’s happening. Most importantly, I still like this stock a lot and I don’t see any reason to sell.

    What happened is that AFLAC held a meeting with some Wall Street analysts. Most of what they had to say was good news. The company is “de-risking” its portfolio and they reiterated their earnings guidance for this year. But what everyone focused on was Dan Amos’ comments that AFLAC will grow its earnings by 0% to 5% next year.

    That’s not great news, but it’s hardly awful news. First off, 2012 is still a long way away and this forecast strikes me as overly conservative. But even if it’s not, AFLAC is still a solid company going for a very attractive price.

    Let’s puts our emotions aside and look at the facts. AFLAC has already said that it expects operating earnings-per-share for this year to range between $6.09 and $6.34. Some of this will obviously depend on the exchange and that’s been working in our favor recently.

    The current yen/dollar exchange rate puts AFLAC on track to earn $6.28 per share for all of 2011. Bear in mind that this isn’t my forecast or Wall Street’s. This is coming straight from AFLAC itself, and we know their guidance has been very reliable (and usually conservative).

    Thursday’s closing price is almost exactly eight times this year’s earnings estimate. Even if they show 0% growth next, AFLAC is still a bargain. Furthermore, the shares currently yield 2.38% and AFLAC said they’re aiming to raise the dividend by as much as 10% this year and next. The company has raised its dividend for the last 28 years in a row.

    The other good news is that AFLAC is ditching some of their assets held in problem spots around the world like Ireland. They had already dumped much of their Greek investments. This has obviously been freaking out a lot of investors.

    The bottom line is that the 2012 forecast wasn’t good news and I don’t want to pretend otherwise. But considering AFLAC’s overall high-quality, recent earnings trend, decline risk and depressed valuation, the stock is still a very compelling buy.

    That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

  • Commodities Get Clobbered
    , May 12th, 2011 at 11:07 am

    Let me help explain what’s been going on in the market over the past few days. Now that earnings season is mostly over, there’s been a rush out of formerly hot commodities as investors have sought shelter in very low-risk bonds or in stocks in non-cyclical industries.

    To give you an example, the Silver ETF ($SLV) got as high as $48.35 two weeks ago. Today it’s been as low as $31.97. Ouch! The Gold ETF ($GLD) has backed off from $153.61 last Monday to $145 today. Oil ($USO) has dropped from $45.60 to $38.59. (Prices at the pump, however, are still high.)

    Now let’s check out what’s happening in the debt market: The yield on the one-year Treasury has dropped below 0.17%. Sure, it’s one thing for short term rates to be microscopic, but now we’re talking about one full year.

    Let’s take a step back and see what that means. One year at 0.17% works out to about 21 Dow points stretched out over a full year. Plus, that doesn’t include dividends. In other words, the Treasury investor would lose to the broad-based investor even if the Dow fell by (roughly) 1.8% over the next twelve months. So what is it that debt investors want so badly? The answer is security. They want it so badly, they’re willing to vastly overpay for it.

    I think that’s nuts, but there’s a buyer for every seller.

    On the stock front, the damage has mostly hit the commodity stocks. These are the stocks you find in the Energy ($XLE) and Materials ($XLB) sectors. The fall off in oil is really starting to hurt some of the major oil stocks. The market value of ExxonMobil ($XOM) has dropped by $40 billion this month. There are only a handful of companies in the world that are worth $40 billion.

    Energy and Materials stocks are the core of the cyclical side of the stock market. As I’ve been expecting, investors are rotating out of cyclical stocks and finding safe refuge in stable stocks. Cyclical stocks tend to lead the market on the way up, but they are punished more on the way down.

    Since our Buy List is focused away from cyclicals, we’re not down nearly as much as the rest of the market is. In fact, some of our stocks continue to rally. Jos. A. Bank ($JOSB), for example, is at another new high today. Sysco ($SYY) is also holding up well after its massive jump after the earnings report. Outside of our Buy List, defensive stocks like CVS ($CVS) and Southern Company ($SO) are at new 52-week highs.

    According to Bloomberg’s latest numbers, 72% of companies beat analysts’ estimates this earnings season. S&P has the S&P 500 on track to earn $22.58 for Q1. That’s a 16.51% increase over Q1 of 2010. It’s very likely that this current quarter will top the record earnings ($24.06) made in Q2 of 2007.

    For all of 2011, the S&P 500 is projected to earn $98.19. Going by yesterday’s close, the index is trading at 13.67 times this year’s forecast. That works out to an earnings yield of 7.32%. That’s about 400 basis points more than a 10-year Treasury. For next year, the S&P 500 is projected to earn $111.82.

  • Sysco Looking to Make Deals
    , May 10th, 2011 at 10:54 am

    Thanks to yesterday’s huge move from Sysco ($SYY), our Buy List gained 1.04% yesterday compared with 0.45% for the S&P 500. For the year, the Buy List is up 11.67% to the S&P 500’s 7.05%.

    Sysco got as high as $32.76 yesterday but closed at $31.57. I was surprised by the magnitude of yesterday’s move, but sometimes the best stock to buy is the one you already own. Sysco also said that they’re looking to make acquisitions going forward.

    “We are also committed to looking for acquisition opportunities both in and beyond the core,” DeLaney said on a conference call today. “We are doing this mainly through building a pipeline of high-quality potential domestic acquisitions and also by looking at adjacencies and new geographies.”

    Sysco, which controls almost one-fifth of the restaurant- distribution industry’s more than $200 billion in sales, may look to Western Europe for growth as people there eat out more, said Jack Russo, an analyst at Edward Jones. Sysco has completed at least seven acquisitions in the past five years, the latest being the purchase of Nebraskan distributor Lincoln Poultry & Egg Co. last year.

    Our Buy List continues to do well today. Both Jos. A. Bank ($JOSB) and Wright Express ($WXS) are at new 52-week highs.

  • Sysco Earns 44 Cents Per Share
    , May 9th, 2011 at 8:51 am

    Good news this morning. Sysco ($SYY) just reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 44 cents per share which was three cents more than Wall Street was expecting. The shares look to open about 5% higher.

    This was a surprise to traders but not to me. I said on Friday’s CWS Market Review that I was expecting earnings from Sysco of 43 cents per share.

    Here are some more details:

    Sales were $9.8 billion, an increase of 9.1% from $8.9 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2010.

    Operating income was $427 million, including a $36 million charge related to the withdrawal of an operating company from a multi-employer pension plan (MEPP). This result was $5 million, or 1.1%, lower than last year’s third quarter.

    Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.44, including a $0.04 negative impact related to the MEPP withdrawal discussed above, and a $0.02 tax benefit related to the recognition of deferred tax assets. This result was 4.8% higher compared to $0.42 in last year’s third quarter.

    This is welcome news for Sysco especially since they had a poor earnings report three months ago. In February, SYY reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 44 cents per share which was three cents below estimates. At the time, I said I was disappointed by the quarter but ultimately, I felt that the problems were manageable. That appears to be correct.

    Sysco has earned $1.42 so far is the first three quarters of their fiscal year. They’re on track to earn about $1.97 for the year. We haven’t heard any guidance from the company, but I think they can earn $2 per share next year.

    I said that Sysco could be a $30 stock, and it may be one before the day is out.