• The First Day of the Month
    Posted by on October 23rd, 2007 at 2:59 pm

    Here’s a surprising stat. Since the beginning of this decade, all of the market’s gain have come on the first day of the month. The rest of the time, the S&P 500 is down.
    image539.png
    The blue line represents the first day of the month, the black line is the S&P 500. For the decade, the S&P 500 is up 2.52% and the first day is up 33%.
    The last seven first days have all been up. In the decade, there have only been 94 first days out of nearly 2,000 trading days, or about 4.8% of the time.

  • WR Berkley Down on Earnings News
    Posted by on October 23rd, 2007 at 1:34 pm

    Shares of WR Berkley (BER) are down on what I thought were decent earnings. The company earned 93 cents a share compared with 87 cents last year. This is operating earnings as that’s the more important number to follow with insurance stocks. Wall Street was looking for 91 cents a share.
    The stock is going for less than eight times trailing earnings.

  • Does Apple Ever Go Down?
    Posted by on October 22nd, 2007 at 1:00 pm

    Seriously, it can’t go up every day.
    Can it?

  • Old School Grimace
    Posted by on October 20th, 2007 at 3:07 pm

  • Twenty Years Ago Today
    Posted by on October 19th, 2007 at 10:21 am

    image538.png
    On Monday, October 19, the Dow dropped 508 points, or 22.6%, in its worst crash in history.
    Of course, stocks came right back and the economy continued to plow ahead but that wasn’t clear at the time.
    Here’s the cover of the New York Times for the following day.
    (Doncha just love how the NYT asks “Who Gets Hurts?”)
    Here’s their lead article
    Here’s how the Washington Post covered the news.
    I also noticed this article on local reactions. What caught my eye is that at the very end. Malcolm Gladwell’s name is listed.
    What’s interesting is that the articles from two of the most important newspapers in the world don’t mention either the Alan Greenspan or the Nasdaq. It’s hard to imagine a world like that, but the Fed wasn’t considered that important not too long ago. Also, the Nasdaq was a small exchange that wasn’t widely followed.
    How things have changed.

  • Torre Out as Yankee Skipper
    Posted by on October 18th, 2007 at 4:14 pm

    Breaking news: Joe Torre is out as Yankee skipper.
    Is there a market effect? Could be. Twenty years ago tomorrow, Steinbrenner hired Billy Martin for the fifth time. That may have led to the unpleasantness of that day.

  • Odd Stat of the Day
    Posted by on October 18th, 2007 at 3:35 pm

    If you got shares of Google (GOOG) at the IPO price you would have made an average of 5% every four weeks for the last 38 months.

    At this price, if Google goes up $1 a day, that’s a decrease in its growth rate.

  • What the Market Thinks the Fed Will Do
    Posted by on October 18th, 2007 at 9:43 am

    Here’s an interesting tidbit. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has a site that tracks what the futures market thinks the Fed will do.

  • ‘Mr. Madam’ grilled in Wall Streeter’s death
    Posted by on October 18th, 2007 at 8:41 am

    This is sad and strange, but the investigation into Seth Tobias’ death has taken an odd turn:

    The aftermath of last month’s death in Jupiter of CNBC commentator and Wall Street big Seth Tobias has taken a bizarre turn.
    Billy Ash, a former Lauderdale-based gay pimp who called himself “Mr. Madam,” has become a key figure in the continuing police investigation into the death and the battle for Tobias’ millions.
    And then there’s “Tiger.” That’s the stage name of the go-go dancer at the WPB gay hangout Cupids who was supposed to be deposed in the probate fight.
    What’s going on here?
    Neither Tobias’ widow, Filomena, nor her four — Count ’em! four — high-profile lawyers, including ex-husband Jay Jacknin, are talking.
    But Ash, now based in San Diego, is.
    He told Page Two that Jupiter PD Detectives Danielle Hirsch and Brent Hoosac spent two days grilling him at home in late September.
    Ash — who was arrested at least 11 times in South Florida from 1983 through 1997 for prostitution, bouncing checks and staying in a hotel without paying, according to law enforcement records — says he was the Tobiases’ personal assistant for two years.
    He quit shortly after hedge-fund whiz Tobias, 44, was found floating in the pool of his $3 million home at the Bears Club. Ash e-mailed what appears to be a pay stub showing he received a $3,000 payment from Filomena on Sept. 2, two days before the death.
    “I have intimate knowledge about the inner workings of the couple. I booked their travels, made sure they made appointments on time, watched after their many houses,” Ash said, acknowledging that he has “a past” and that it didn’t disturb the Tobiases when he was hired.
    He said he didn’t witness the death and was flying home when it occurred.
    Jupiter PD has yet to classify Tobias’ death, and a spokesman for the medical examiner said toxicology tests are still pending.
    “At this point, this is just a death investigation,” said JPD spokesman Scott Pascarella. “We did fly to San Diego to interview Mr. Ash. We have the obligation to investigate all information presented to us.”
    The fight for Tobias’ $25 million-plus fortune, meanwhile, is really getting out there, too.
    Filomena — Seth’s wife of two years, against whom he filed for divorce, then had the case closed — is duking it out in a West Palm Beach court with Tobias’ four brothers. They are in his will and Filomena isn’t, but she claims to be the sole heir.
    Ash is scheduled to be deposed in that case Monday in his home city. Tiger the stripper was supposed to be deposed in West Palm on Oct. 4, according to court records.
    In another development Filomena, 41, who once claimed in court documents that she needs nearly $46,000 a month to live, is selling Tobias’ homes here. Two in WPB’s east side are going for a total $3.6 million, and the Bears Club mansion where the death occurred may soon go up for $6 million.

  • Two Quick Earnings Notes
    Posted by on October 18th, 2007 at 6:44 am

    Solid numbers from Danaher (DHR) this morning. The company netted 98 cents a share, which is a penny better than the top of its range. There was also another nickel a share due to favorable tax treatment.

    This is a quiet company but don’t let that fool you. For the year, DHR is looking at 16%-18% growth and it’s going for 21-22 times this year’s earnings. I wouldn’t mind seeing it pull back some, but either way, this is a very sound company.

    Also, UnitedHealth (UNH) earned 95 cents a share, three cents more than estimates. What caught my eye was this was the first time the company made a forecast for next year. The EPS range for 2008 is $3.95 to $4.
    As I said last week, this is a good long-term buy below $50.