• Buy List Since 2006
    Posted by on August 1st, 2007 at 2:05 pm

    Here’s a look at how our Buy List has done going back to the beginning of last year:
    image506.png
    We were fairly even with the market until this spring, but we missed the big surge in cyclical stocks. However, we’ve held up a lot better during the recent sell-off. We were over 10% behind the S&P, now we’re 7% behind.
    Our relative volatility has plunged in the past few months. Since February, the Buy List is about 12% less volatile than the S&P 500.

  • Crimson in the Red
    Posted by on August 1st, 2007 at 10:59 am

    From the WSJ:

    Harvard University’s endowment fund has graduated some of the most sought-after money managers in the hedge-fund world.
    Now one of those stars is teaching Harvard a lesson of its own.
    In the past month, the university lost about $350 million through an investment in Sowood Capital Management, a hedge-fund firm founded by Jeffrey Larson. Mr. Larson managed Harvard’s foreign-stock holdings until 2004, when he left to set up Sowood, which recently lost more than 50% of its value amid bad bond investments.
    Mr. Larson isn’t the only high-profile former Harvard-endowment manager with a mixed record since leaving the ivory tower. Jack Meyer, Harvard’s former top investment manager, last year raised a $6 billion hedge fund, Convexity Capital, including an initial $500 million investment from Harvard. While Convexity’s returns were subpar early on, its performance has improved lately, according to people familiar with the figures.

    (Via Joe DealBreaker)

  • Murdoch Wins
    Posted by on August 1st, 2007 at 9:42 am

    It’s over. Murdoch won his bid for Dow Jones (DJ). This was a silly spectacle and after a lot of drama the only thing Bancroft family did was embarrass themselves.
    Here’s all you need to know:
    image505.png
    DJ’s stock has barely moved in a generation. That last uptick is from Murdoch’s $60 a share offer.

  • The King and Buy
    Posted by on August 1st, 2007 at 9:30 am

    It turns out that one of Thailand’s best investors is the king:

    Mondays are different in Thailand. It’s the day of the week on which the world’s longest-reigning monarch, Bhumibol Adulyadej, was born.
    And in this Southeast Asian nation, the sidewalks, trains, ferries and food stalls selling fiery curries take on a canary- colored glow as Thais — from chief executive officers to street sweepers — pay respect to their king by dressing in the royal color of yellow.
    Investors are finding reasons to be enthusiastic about Bhumibol too: The $5 billion of shares that the 79-year-old king controls through the Crown Property Bureau, the asset management company established by Thailand’s government, are weathering the nation’s vicissitudes better than most.

  • The Dividend Aristocrats
    Posted by on July 31st, 2007 at 11:02 am

    S&P tracks its list of “Dividend Aristocrats,” these are S&P 500 stocks that have increased their dividend every year for the last 25 years.
    Here’s the list ranked by current dividend yield:
    FHN 5.51%
    BAC 5.34%
    ED 5.29%
    USB 5.21%
    PFE 4.92%
    BBT 4.81%
    CMA 4.73%
    RF 4.68%
    FITB 4.43%
    MO 4.09%
    KEY 4.09%
    CINF 3.55%
    LEG 3.44%
    GCI 3.24%
    LLY 3.12%
    KMB 3.10%
    SNV 2.85%
    GE 2.83%
    JNJ 2.72%
    BUD 2.69%
    PPG 2.68%
    CLX 2.61%
    MTB 2.60%
    KO 2.59%
    ROH 2.58%
    ABT 2.57%
    AVY 2.56%
    VFC 2.51%
    CBSS 2.47%
    CB 2.27%
    PEP 2.27%
    PG 2.24%
    SWK 2.21%
    EMR 2.20%
    MMM 2.15%
    MCD 2.05%
    SLM 2.01%
    WWY 2.01%
    ADP 1.96%
    WMT 1.90%
    SHW 1.77%
    GWW 1.57%
    SVU 1.54%
    FDO 1.50%
    DOV 1.43%
    MHP 1.34%
    ADM 1.34%
    STT 1.28%
    BDX 1.25%
    JCI 1.17%
    LOW 1.14%
    SIAL 1.01%
    STR 0.95%
    TGT 0.90%
    WAG 0.85%
    NUE 0.84%
    BCR 0.75%
    CTL 0.56%
    PGR 0.19%

  • Quote of the Day
    Posted by on July 31st, 2007 at 12:30 am

    Private equity firms are draining the capital out of our communities, and draining the lifeblood of our country.

    From John Edwards’ campaign blog

  • RIP: Chet Currier
    Posted by on July 31st, 2007 at 12:14 am

    Long-time financial writer, Chet Currier, died on Sunday. This is from his final Bloomberg column:

    For one long-standing indicator of shifting moods in the stock market, a now-or-never moment is at hand.
    The gauge in question, which focuses on cash reserves held by managers of stock-mutual funds, has been emitting increasingly bearish signals about the market outlook.
    But nobody has been paying much attention. The indicator’s once-stellar record of accuracy has been less than compelling lately. What’s more, the whole premise behind it may be out of date.

  • GDP Revisions
    Posted by on July 30th, 2007 at 2:02 pm

    One of my constant complaints about the government’s economic data is that it’s subject to endless revisions. Then the revisions are updated and the updates are subsequently revised. Geez, folks. Just wait till you get a final number and give it to me.
    In Friday’s GDP report, the government revised all the GDP numbers going back to 2004. It turns out that the economy was a bit weaker than it originally said. They were only off by about $120 billion. Unless, of course, that gets revised.
    Funny, I don’t feel any different.
    Anyway, here’s a look at GDP, new numbers and old:
    image503.png
    Eleven of the 13 quarters were revised lower. Here’s a look at the quarterly growth numbers:
    image504.png
    …………………….Old………..…..New
    Q1-04………..3.85%………….2.96%
    Q2-04………..4.04%………….3.48%
    Q3-04………..3.10%………….3.60%
    Q4-04………..2.61%………….2.55%
    Q1-05………..3.40%………….3.07%
    Q2-05………..3.26%………….2.81%
    Q3-05………..4.18%………….4.46%
    Q4-05………..1.76%………….1.19%
    Q1-06………..5.58%………….4.82%
    Q2-06………..2.56%………….2.44%
    Q3-06………..1.96%………….1.07%
    Q4-06………..2.45%………….2.09%
    Q1-07………..0.69%………….0.60%
    Q2-07………………..…………….3.38%
    (We pass the graphics savings on to you.)

  • Dow 14000
    Posted by on July 29th, 2007 at 9:13 pm

    From The Onion:

    The Dow Jones closed at over 14,000 for the first time last week. What are the contributing factors?
    Certain knowledge that crashes like those of 1819, 1837, 1869, 1873, 1929, 1987, 1989, 2000, and 2001 will absolutely never happen again
    Record number of contributions during annual Dow Jones telethon
    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke showing a little more hustle
    Market theorist Harry S. Dent’s forecast that people in the fourth quarter of 2007 will like having lots of money
    Traders trying to impress cute girl who works at Wall Street Blimpie’s
    Dow Jones’ takeover of Marianne’s and other mom-and-pop indexes
    Someone forgot to ring the closing bell, resulting in 17 additional hours of trading
    Less selling, more buying

  • Economy Grew By 3.4% in Q2
    Posted by on July 27th, 2007 at 10:20 am

    From Bloomberg:

    The 3.4 percent annual pace of expansion, the most in more than a year, followed a revised gain of 0.6 percent in January to March, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose at the slowest pace in four years.
    Spending on commercial construction projects rose at the fastest pace in 13 years, helping to overcome another drop in homebuilding. Factories ramped up production to fill orders from Europe and Asia that made up for a slowdown in consumer spending. Treasury securities erased gains, stock-index futures trimmed losses and the dollar remained higher.
    “The good news is that capital spending and exports are growing,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. Still, “the economy is plodding along. We’re very vulnerable to a shock.”