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Morning News: August 6, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 6th, 2024 at 7:09 amEurozone Retail Sales Mark Disappointing Backslide
Stocks See Choppy Trading as Nerves Still Run High
Online Brokerages Futu, UP Fintech Suspend Night Trading of U.S. Stocks
The Economy Is Looking Pre-Recessionary
Recession Fears May Be Overstated, but Not Unfounded
Market Selloff Upends Fed Rate-Cut Calculus
The Fed Should Resist Placating Markets
Japan Leads Hopes for Global Market Rebound. Most Gains Still Aren’t Much
JPMorgan Says Carry Trade Unraveling Is Only Half Complete
‘Don’t Be Fooled’—Coinbase Issues Serious Warning After $800 Billion Bitcoin And Crypto Price Crash
Citigroup’s Trading Division Hit With Fresh Toxic-Culture Claim
Google’s Antitrust Loss Is a Hollow Victory for Regulators
How the Google Antitrust Ruling May Influence Tech Competition
Made-in-China Goes Upscale as a New Generation of Brands Battles Slowdown
World’s Five Leading Chipmakers Have Now Promised U.S. Investment
SK Hynix Wins $950 Million of US Grants, Loans for AI Chip Site
Oil Is Oversold But It’s in Front of a Macro Train
Saudi Aramco to Return $31 Billion to Shareholders, Government After Profit Beat
Why Californians Have Some of the Highest Power Bills in the U.S.
CNET to Be Sold to Ziff Davis in Sign of Possible Media Deals to Come
Uber Posts Earnings Beat as Rideshare Demand Remains Strong
Bayer Posts Net Loss as Tough Agriculture Market Bites
Kenvue Beats Sales Estimates, Bucking Consumer Goods Trend
Taco Bell Owner’s Sales Miss Views, Reflecting Dining Slump
Star Power Elevates Pin Trading, the Unofficial Sport of the Olympics
How Going to the Movies Is Changing, in Charts
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Morning News: August 5, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 5th, 2024 at 7:08 amGreen-Energy Flops Revive Bets on Natural Gas
Woodside to Buy Ammonia Plant From OCI Global for $2.35 Billion
Guyana Fight Shows Big Oil’s Need for Cheap Crude
A Gas Carrier Faking Its Location Helps Russia Avoid Sanctions
China Caixin PMI Signals Pickup in Services-Sector Activity
Israel, Mideast Markets Fall on Iran Threat, Global Stock Plunge
Markets Around the World Are Jolted by Fears of Slowing U.S. Growth
Global Selloff Intensifies as Traders See Multiple Risks
The Market Meltdown Intensifies
Fed Charged With Backing Away From Its Real-Rate Pledge
Everyone Is Talking About the Sahm Recession Indicator. Here’s What You Need to Know
JPMorgan CEO Contenders Cite Intense Competition During Market Revival
Homes to Stay Unaffordable Whatever the Fed Does, Survey Shows
It’s Getting Harder for Companies to Keep Politics Out of the Workplace
How 2024 Became the Zoom Election
Adani Unveils $213 Billion Succession Plan as Scrutiny Persists
Apple Investors Urged to Stay Calm After Buffett Slashes Stake
With Smugglers and Front Companies, China Is Skirting American A.I. Bans
AI Chip Startup Groq Gets $2.8 Billion Valuation in New Funding Round
Infineon Cuts Jobs, Guidance as Chip Inventory Glut Weighs on Market Recovery
Ford Turns ‘Dirty’ Business Into a Profit Driver. GM and Stellantis Are Taking Notice
Declaring ‘Crisis,’ South Korean Firms Tell Managers to Work 6 Days a Week
L’Oreal Buys Stake in Swiss Skincare Company Galderma
Why Russians, But Not Russia, Are Competing in the Olympics
LeBron James Faces the Basketball World He Helped to Create
Streamers Can’t Get Enough of True Story TV. Cue the Lawsuits.
Why ‘The Great Gatsby’ and Other Broadway Shows Are Turning to Influencers
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Morning News: August 2, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 2nd, 2024 at 7:03 amIn Xi’s China, Politics Eventually Catches Up With Everyone
Norway Adjusted Unemployment Hits Highest Level in 19 Months
South Korea’s Inflation Reaccelerates in July
Hard Landing Concerns Jolt Global Markets
Japan Stocks Tumble in Biggest Two-Day Rout Since 2011 Tsunami
Fed Will Scour Jobs Report for Signs of Weakness
Markets Now Fear the Fed’s Waiting Game Is Too Long
Dimon Pushes for Private-Sector Representation in Next Cabinet
SoftBank Drop Wipes $2.6 Billion Off Masayoshi Son’s Fortune
Big Tech’s AI Race Has One Main Winner: Nvidia
Big Tech Fails to Convince Wall Street That AI Is Paying Off
Samsung Built an Apple Watch Ultra of Its Own
Nintendo’s Switch Sales, Profit Slump as Successor Console Awaited
Amazon Cautions That When the News Gets Nutty, People Shop Less
Retailers Locked Up Their Products—and Broke Shopping in America
Making Money From News Aimed at Gen Z Is Easier Said Than Done
Why the World Is Running Out of Essential Undersea Cables
Exxon Earnings Jump, While Chevron Drops
Chevron to Quit California for Texas After Warning on Regulation
Rolls-Royce Defies Market Slump as Shares Extend Epic Rally
Nike Bets on Olympic Spending Spree to Revive Slumping Sales
Judge Overturns $4.7 Billion ‘Sunday Ticket’ Verdict Against the NFL
World Cycling Head Warns Saudis Against Funding Breakaway League
Disney’s Movie Studio Bounces Back After Two Challenging Years
Inflation Math is Changing America’s Dinner Plans
The Future of Junk Food Could Be Healthy Food
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Morning News: August 1, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 1st, 2024 at 7:04 amFor Europe’s Big Oil, Profits Still Count on Crude
Four in Ten German Manufacturers Eye Move Abroad on Energy Costs
Exxon Almost Walked Away From Its $1 Trillion Oil Discovery
Shell Earnings Beat Market Views Despite Lower Gas Trading, Refining Margin Hit
Midwestern Farmers Who Say Yes to Solar Power Face Neighbors’ Wrath
How Thousands of Middlemen Are Gaming the H-1B Program
More Than 100 Silicon Valley Investors Pledge to Support Kamala Harris
Trump Promises Lower Interest Rates, but the President Doesn’t Control Those
Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2020
Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow
Why the Fed Risks Falling Behind
Societe Generale Hurt by Weak Performance at French Retail Unit
Barclays Announces $960 Million Buyback, Lifts Outlook as Investment Bank Shines
Ackman’s IPO Dream Implodes From $25 Billion to Zero in Weeks
Three Big Differences Between the AI and Dot-Com Bubbles
DC Welcomes Ex-OpenAI Board Member After Sam Altman Drama
Meta’s Upbeat Earnings Buy Time for AI Investment to Pay Off
Meta’s Lesson in Allaying Wall Street’s A.I. Fears
Reddit Acquires Generative AI Startup Memorable AI
Power-Hungry Data Centers Are Gobbling Up Texas Amid AI Boom
Applied Materials Is Denied US Chips Grant for $4 Billion Silicon Valley Project
ArcelorMittal Trims Steel Outlook After Earnings Slumped on Lower Steel Prices
Spirit Airlines Curtailing Workforce as Quarterly Loss Widens
Nike Paid Him to Make Gold-Dipped Sneakers for LeBron. Now, It Is Suing Him.
After Years of Raising Prices, Food Companies Hit Consumers’ Limits
Wendy’s Cuts Sales Guidance as US Guest Counts Drop
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Morning News: July 31, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 31st, 2024 at 7:06 amEurozone Inflation Picks Up Pace in Blow to Rate-Cut Hopes
Germany’s Joblessness Holds Steady in Rare Hope for Economy
Zelenskiy Signs Law Allowing Ukraine Debt Payment Suspension
China Home Sales Slump Drags On Despite Latest Rescue
China Wants to Start a National Internet ID System
China’s Economic Tea Leaves Offer Optimism for Metals Bulls
Japan’s Central Bank Hikes Key Rate Hours Before the Fed
Ueda’s Big Day Was Lost in a Communication Black Hole
The Haves and Have-Nots at the Center of America’s Inflation Fight
Politics Makes the Fed’s Job Trickier, but Doesn’t Drive Its Decisions
More Than 100 Silicon Valley Investors Pledge to Support Kamala Harris
Ares Breaks Private Credit Record With New $34 Billion Fund
Citi Breached a Rule Meant to Keep Banks Safe, Made Liquidity Reporting Errors
HSBC Offers $3 Billion Buyback as Wealth Income Offsets Rate Cut Anxiety
Better 401(k)s Boost Millennial Retirement Outlook, Report Says
The Quiet Power of Car-Free Neighborhoods
How to Calculate the Value of an MBA
ASML, Tokyo Electron Shielded From US Chip Export Rules, For Now
Intel to Cut Thousands of Jobs to Reduce Costs, Fund Rebound
Startup Making 21st-Century Power Lines Gets a $60 Million Boost
Boeing Names Ortberg as CEO to Revive Embattled Planemaker
Delta CEO Says CrowdStrike Tech-Outage Costs Could Reach $500 Million
Inside the WSJ’s Investigation of Tesla’s Autopilot Crash Risks
GSK Lifts Guidance After HIV, Cancer Treatments Boost Sales
Humana Tumbles After Warning of Higher Hospital Admissions
Danone Backs Guidance as Shoppers Welcome Easing Price Hikes
Adidas Sets a Faster Pace as Sneaker Sales Sprint Amid Summer of Sport
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CWS Market Review – July 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2024 at 9:31 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
Q2 Earnings Are Still Looking Good
We’re getting to the heart of Q2 earnings season and so far, the results are pretty good. I would have expected to see more damage from elevated interest rates, but Corporate America seems to have weathered the threat fairly well.
According to numbers from FactSet, 41% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported so far. Of those, 78% have beaten their earnings estimates – that’s very high – and 60% have topped their revenue estimates.
FactSet said we’re currently tracking earnings growth for Q2 at 9.8%. If that’s right, it will be the best quarter for earnings growth since Q4 2021. That’s a lot better than was expected. On June 30, Wall Street had been expecting earnings growth of 8.9%.
Here’s a look at the S&P 500 (black line, left scale) along with it earnings (blue line, right scale). The two lines are a scale ratio of 18 to 1 so whenever the lines cross, The P/E ratio is exactly 18.
The net profit margin for companies is 12.1% which is high by historic standards. Interestingly, Wall Street expects margins to go even higher. Analysts see margins of 12.4% for Q3 and Q4.
I’ve also looked to see if there’s any trend in guidance. As of now, guidance is perfectly even. For Q3, 16 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, and 16 have issued negative guidance. Overall, stronger earnings can support higher share prices. Also, lower interest rates can give a boost to valuations. This is the one-two punch that the market needs.
The stock market had a brief misstep recently when it fell six times in seven trading sessions. The S&P 500 even dropped below its 50-day moving average, which is often an omen of bearish sentiment.
Are we out of the woods? I’m afraid it’s too early to say. The S&P 500 was up very modestly on Friday and Monday, and it was down again today. The big story on Wall Street is the summer rotation, and it’s still unfolding. The plot is easy. Investors are fleeing large-cap tech stocks and seeking safety in smaller value stocks. Microsoft will report earnings after today’s close while Amazon, Facebook and Apple are due to report later this week.
Today’s trading was another example of the rotation. The Nasdaq was down over 1% today while the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index was up.
It’s hard to convey how dramatic this turn has been. All those big-name tech stocks have gotten battered. Nvidia is now 26% below its 52-week high. That’s a loss of $900 billion in a little over one month. Meanwhile, those overlooked small names are doing quite well. This has been an especially good time for our Buy List, and CWS.
There are several ways to show the rotation on a chart. They all basically illuminate the same phenomenon.
In this chart, I have the S&P 500 Growth ETF divided by the S&P 500 Value ETF (black). The other line is the Nasdaq Composite divided by the Russell 2000 (blue). Notice how the two lines went from a low correlation to a very high one.
Don’t Expect Any Changes Tomorrow from the Fed
Last Thursday, the government released its first estimate for Q2 GDP growth. I have to confess that my expectations were way off. I thought the U.S. economy had grown in real annualized terms of about 1%, maybe a little higher. Instead, the economy grew by 2.8% for Q2.
To be fair, I wasn’t alone. The consensus on Wall Street had been for growth of 2.1%. The economy did a lot better than it did during Q1 when it grew by 1.4%.
Digging into the details, this was a solid report.
Personal consumption expenditures, the main proxy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis report for consumer activity, increased 2.3% for the quarter, up from the 1.5% acceleration in Q1. Both services and goods spending saw solid increases for the quarter.
Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding 0.82 percentage point to the total gain. Government spending added a tailwind as well, rising 3.9% at the federal level, including a 5.2% surge in defense outlays.
On the downside, imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped 6.9%, the biggest quarterly rise since Q1 of 2022. Exports were up just 2%.
On Friday, the government released the PCE price data for June. This data is important to keep an eye on because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
For June, the headline price index rose by 0.1% which matched expectations. Over the last year, headline PCE is up by 2.5%. That’s still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but it’s getting close.
We also want to look at the core PCE which excludes volatile food and energy prices. For June, the core PCE was up by 0.2% which also matched expectations. Over the last year, core PCE is up by 2.6. Again, it’s above the Fed’s preference but it’s a lot better than where it was two years ago.
The Federal Reserve started its two-day meeting today. The central bank’s policy statement will be released tomorrow afternoon at 2 p.m. ET. I’ll break the suspense: the Fed won’t make any changes to interest rates at this meeting, but this will be the last time. We can almost certainly expect the Fed to cut rates at its September meeting.
Wall Street currently thinks there’s a 4% chance of a rate cut tomorrow, but there’s an 85% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in September, and a 13% chance of a 0.50% cut. I doubt the Fed will give us a 0.50% cut, but it’s not unthinkable. Traders currently expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.
I’m skeptical of looking at data that goes too far out, but futures traders expect the Fed to cut three more times in the first half of 2025. They may or may not be right, but it’s the change in interest rate expectations that’s driving the big rotation.
The labor market is mostly healthy for now, but I’m not sure how long that can last. As the New York Times noted, “Job openings have come down sharply, part-time employment is up, fewer companies are turning to temporary help to fill gaps and fewer workers are job hopping.”
I’ll also point out that historically, this has been a good time to be in the market. From July 28 of an election year until the end of the year, the Dow has gained an average of 10.07%. Citigroup said that stocks and bonds have generally done well around Fed meetings.
Stock Focus: Flowers Foods (FLO)
Many of the stocks I tell you about aren’t widely followed on Wall Street. This week, we’ll look at Flowers Foods (FLO) which does have some coverage. I see that eight Wall Street analysts follow the stock.
Flowers makes a wide range of packaged bakery products including “fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley’s, and Tastykake brand names.”
Flowers is a good example of a defensive stock. It’s been a wonderful stock for decades. Since October 1990, the stock is up 12,000%. Would you have guessed that Flowers Food outperformed Intel over that time? I wouldn’t have.
Flowers’s next earnings report will probably be in about three weeks. I’d stay away from the stock right now, but if there are signs that the business is improving, then Flowers could be a very good buy.
There could be an opportunity for shareholders. Flowers hasn’t done well lately, and it missed its last two earnings reports. The company announced plans to shut down a bun-making plant. Last month, the board increased the quarterly dividend by one penny to 24 cents per share. The shares currently yield a little over 4%.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: July 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2024 at 7:03 amVenezuela’s Opposition Says It Has Proof of Election Fraud
Japanese Businesses Are Taking Price-Raising Lessons to Survive
Understanding Nigeria’s Currency Slump, and What Happens Next
Eurozone Economy Keeps Pace Despite German Weakness
Carbon Credits Found to Be Mostly ‘Ineffective’ in Key Study
How the US Power Grid Became a Mess—Just When We Need It Most
The Port of Los Angeles Has a Power Problem
Risky Bet on US Office Buildings Becomes Debacle for South Korea
U.S. National Debt Tops $35 Trillion for First Time
Time or Money? What’s a Better Investment as Election Heats Up
Here’s Where Labor-Hungry Nations Are Easing Visa Rules
Is the Labor Market About to Crack? It’s the Key Question for the Fed.
The Last American Antislavery Campaign
History Favors Stock and Bond Bulls Alike When the FOMC Meets
Buffett Cuts BofA Stake, Unloading $3 Billion This Month
Microsoft Needs to Show Azure Strength to Stem Great Rotation
This $25 Billion Private Equity Target Is a Puzzle
Luxury Heir Alleges His $13 Billion Hermès Fortune Has Vanished
How One Man Lost $740,000 to Scammers Targeting His Retirement Savings
SoFi Boosts Its 2024 Profit Forecast for a Second Time
Amazon Pushes Fast Delivery Into Rural Areas in Challenge to Post Office
Pfizer Lifts Outlook as Company Seeks to Rebuild Post-Covid
Ozempic’s Biggest Side Effect: Turning Denmark Into A ‘Pharmastate’?
BP Profit Beats Market Views Despite Weaker Refining Margins
Japan Built Thailand’s Car Industry. Now China Is Gunning for It.
Chinese E.V. Makers Rush in and Upend a Country’s Entire Auto Market
Tesla to Recall More Than 1.8 Million Vehicles Due to Hood Issue
Olympic Fever Drives Surge of Chinese, Japanese Fans in Paris
Will Free Beer Make Travelers More Responsible?
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Morning News: July 29, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 29th, 2024 at 7:06 amPutin, Kim and the $4 Trillion Threat on Cold War’s Last Frontier
Pakistan Cuts Rates as Policymakers Try to Revive Economy
Fitch Upgrades Pakistan Credit Rating on Better External Funding
Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.
Why Global Investors Are Watching What Japan Does Next
Traders Fret as 32-Hour Central Bank Spree Hangs Over Market
Trump Became Crypto Believer After Falling in Love With NFTs of Himself
A Digital Coin Based on Baby Trump? Yup.
Business Is Buzzing Again for the Meme Makers of the Left
Big Business Signals to Fed It’s Either Rate Cuts or Job Cuts
A Fed Rate Cut Is Finally Within View
Ackman’s Wait for His Long-Awaited Fund Offering
Amazon Paid Almost $1 Billion for Twitch in 2014. It’s Still Losing Money.
Loews Profit Rises on Strong Premiums and Investment Income; Names New CEO
Pearson’s New CEO Promises Cost Savings After Restructuring
ArcLight to Invest $500 Million in Wind and Solar to Meet AI Demand
Germans Combat Climate Change From Their Balconies
The Rush to Shore Up the Power Grid Against Hurricanes, Heat and Hail
Jet Engines Are Breaking Down. Their Manufacturers Are Raking In Cash.
GSK, Flagship Enter Multibillion-Dollar Drug Discovery Deal
Philips’ Earnings Beat Forecasts as Orders Recover
F.D.A. Approves Blood Test for Colon Cancer Detection
McDonald’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020 as Traffic Drops
Heineken Sinks After China Impairment Hits Earnings
Zyns, Vapes and the Very Weird Market for New Nicotine Products
Kang Pledges $50 Million So Female Athletes Aren’t Trained as ‘Small Men’
‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Reverses Marvel’s Box Office Slump
Hollywood’s Message to Red States: Our Movies Are for You
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Morning News: July 26, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 26th, 2024 at 7:02 amFarming Is Hip in Brazil, Where a New Generation Is Outpacing the US
Why US LNG Is Attracting Foreign Investment
Putin’s Latest Problem Is Runaway Inflation
Russia Opts for Big Rate Hike After Inflation Thwarts Easing
China Weighs Tenfold Fee Increase on High-Frequency Traders
Fed Seen Signaling September Rate Cut at Next Week’s Meeting
Where to Invest in Our Brave New Multipolar World
Eight Things Republicans Get Wrong About Free Trade
Let the Pros Play With the ‘Trump (or Harris) Trade’
Singapore’s Aspiring Bankers Skip Class to ‘Stack’ Internships
U.S. Accuses Prominent Short Seller Andrew Left of Fraud
Harvard’s $465 Million in Tax Benefits Draw New Scrutiny
Billionaires in Korea Face Relief From One of World’s Highest Death Taxes
Florida Housing Market Faces ‘Nightmare Scenarios’ as Deals Collapse
Apple’s iPhone Drops From China Top Five as Local Foes Rise
TikTok Goes All-Out in Washington With Its US Survival at Stake
Rupert Murdoch’s Game of Thrones
Cold-Storage Giant Lineage Raises $4.4 Billion in IPO
Eisai, Biogen Alzheimer’s Drug Denied by European Regulators
BASF Backs Guidance After Cost-Cutting Offsets Revenue Hit From Lower Prices
McDonald’s $5 Value Meal Is Slowly Bringing Diners Back
U.S. Automakers Had a Punishing Week — with a Silver Lining for Shoppers
Mercedes-Benz Lowers Margin Goal for Cars Division After Earnings Drop
Ferrari Narrowly Dodges Deepfake Scam Simulating Deal-Hungry CEO
International Game Technology, Everi Scrap Earlier Tie-Up Plans for $6.3B Deal With Apollo
Hollywood Actors to Go on Strike Against Video Game Companies
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Morning News: July 25, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 25th, 2024 at 7:07 amWith $150 Billion in Default, Maduro Needs Sanctions Relief Fast
Macron Seeks to Reassure CEOs on France at Pre-Olympics Lunch
German Business Sentiment Darkens as Clouds Continue to Gather
China Unexpectedly Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Since 2020
Yen Surges as Traders Bet the Big Turning Point Is Finally Near
Yen’s Sudden Gain Sparks ‘Widespread Liquidation’ Across Markets
Banks Borrow Over £30 Billion From BOE Repo Amid Liquidity Shift
Revenge Spending Zapped by Consumers Tapped Out on High Prices
An Increase in Uninsured Drivers Is Pushing Up Costs for Everyone Else
Stocks Extend Losses as Worries Go Beyond AI Froth
NYCB’s Flagstar to Sell Mortgage-Servicing Unit for $1.4 Billion
The Illicit Flow of Technology to Russia Goes Through This Hong Kong Address
Microsoft’s World of Warcraft Workers Vote to Unionize
Medicaid Was a Boon to Insurers During the Pandemic. Now, Not So Much.
Halting the Bird Flu Outbreak in Cows May Require Thinking Beyond Milk
AbbVie Sees Higher Profits as New Drugs Offset Humira Decline
How Government Programs Help Fuel Tesla Profit
Stellantis Earnings Nearly Halved, Leading Car Industry Slump
Hyundai Motor Profit Jumped 25%, Led by U.S. Demand
American Air Cuts Profit Outlook as Fare Sales Hurt Carriers
Southwest Airlines Is Ditching Open Seating on Flights
Royal Caribbean Restarts Dividends After Four-Year Hiatus
The Secret Battle for the Future of the Murdoch Empire
Universal Music Sheds $16 Billion in Market Value After Revenues Disappoint
Disney Bets on Deadpool, Wolverine and Dirty Jokes to Save Marvel
N.B.A. Announces Lucrative Rights Deals With Disney, Comcast and Amazon
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