Morning News: February 10, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 10th, 2025 at 7:03 am

New Zealand Locks Out Foreign Home Buyers Even as Golden Visa Rules Eased

Don’t Blink Now, Trump. Russia’s Economy Is Cracking

Front-Loading Tariffs Undercuts Trump’s Promise of Faster Growth

Weaponizing Canadian Oil Would Rattle Trump

Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum Imports

Trump’s Man of Steel Posturing Makes America Weaker

Trump’s Renewables Permit Flip-Flop Unsettles Sector

Why Fentanyl Is at the Center of New US-China Trade Fight

Shein Asks Some Chinese Suppliers to Diversify to Vietnam

Trump’s Tariffs Make Currency Trading Cool Again After Years of Decline

Trump’s Tariff Threats Extend Safe-Haven Gold’s Record Rally

The S&P 500 Is Too Big to Falter on Trump’s Tariffs

Trump Fanned Inflation Fears. Now They Haunt His Presidency.

36 Hours After Russell Vought Took Over Consumer Bureau, He Shut Its Operations

DOGE-Backed Halt at CFPB Comes Amid Musk’s Plans for ‘X’ Digital Wallet

The Musk Deputy Running DOGE’s Huge Cost-Cutting Drive

Tech Firms Want to Upend the Pentagon. The Old Defense Guard Has Some Lessons for Them.

For CEOs and Bankers, the Trump Euphoria Is Fading Fast

Trump Tells U.S. Treasury to Stop Minting Pennies

TD Bank Hopes to Raise $14 Billion in Schwab Stake Exit

Alarmed, Employers Ask: What Is ‘Illegal D.E.I.’?

What DeepSeek’s Success Says About China’s Ability to Nurture Talent

McDonald’s Sales Improve on Stronger International Results

Coke’s $7 Billion Bet on Milk Hits Big, But Wall Street Wants More

Hyatt to Buy All-Inclusive Resort Owner Playa for $2.6 Billion

Who’s Watching What on TV? Who’s to Say?

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Morning News: February 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 7th, 2025 at 7:02 am

India Central Bank Kicks Off Easing Cycle to Boost Economy

Europe Is Looking to Roll Back Climate Accounting Rules

ECB Updates Estimate of Neutral Rate as Policy Makers Question Its Usefulness

Broken Markets Hold Back Europe as Trump Amps Up the Pressure

Trump Trade Nominee Defends Plan to Reorder International Trade

What Closing the De Minimis Tariff Loophole for US Imports from China Means

The Real Danger of Trump’s Incoherent Trade Policy

The Early Verdict on Tariffs: Bad Economics, Better Politics

Bessent Projects Normalcy While ‘Completely Aligned’ With Musk

Trump’s Executive Orders Leave Imprint on the Fed

Solid Labor Market Gives Fed Cover to Extend Rate Pause

Crypto’s First Family Is Deepening the Swamp

Tether Revs Up Deal Machine After Its Embrace by ‘Establishment’

The Perpetual Hunt for ‘Alpha’

Fannie Mae Underpins the Mortgage Market. Should the Government Sell It?

Senate Confirms Russell Vought as Office of Management and Budget Director

Bond Traders Await Payrolls Print That May Vindicate Fed Caution

After LA Fires Destroyed Mansions, Banks Reckon With Jumbo Loans

Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies

GM, Pepsi, Disney, Others Scrub Some DEI References from Investor Reports

Bain Capital to Buy Mitsubishi Chemical’s Pharma Business for More Than $3 Billion

Legal & General to Sell U.S. Insurance Businesses in $2.3 Billion Deal

Amazon, Like Microsoft, Says It Can’t Keep Up With AI Demand

Venture Global IPO Shows Limits of Trump Bump

Porsche Shares Slide After Profit Warning for 2025

New Orleans Needs an Economic Win. It’s Betting on the Super Bowl.

The Reason Why This Super Bowl Has So Many Conspiracy Theories

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Morning News: February 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 6th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Silicon Valley Leans Into ‘Lethal’ Tech While Europe Waits on a Defense Plan

Trump Flashes Newfound Imperialist Streak in White House Return

Trump Should Learn From Helsinki, Not Yalta, on Foreign Policy

Bessent Explains Trump. It Won’t Be the Last Time

Hawkish BOJ Board Member Calls for Potentially Faster Rate Hikes

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates as British Economy Weakens

Northern Ireland Worries About Fallout From Transatlantic Trade War

King Dollar Won’t Follow Trump’s Tariff Playbook

Data Hoarders Are Rushing to Save Vanishing US Health Records

Friday’s Jobs Report Will Be Confusing. Here’s How to Make Sense of It.

US Jobs Will Get Marked Down, But Not as Much as Once Feared

US Banks Raise Equity to Jumpstart Deals, Bolster Balance Sheets

Societe Generale Shares Jump After Results Beat Expectations

SocGen Says It Won’t Follow Wall Street Out of Climate Alliance

Pimco Is Falling Behind as Private Credit Booms

Exiled From Goldman Sachs, a Fallen Star Finds His Next Act

Could the Trade Fight Take a Bite Out of Apple?

Conoco Quarterly Net Income Fell, Expects 2025 Production Growth

TotalEnergies Hails Power Profit as Rivals Pull Back on Renewables

Can Nissan Survive Without Honda’s Helping Hand?

Honeywell to Break Up After Pressure From Activist Elliott

Peloton Posts Profit Beat and Raises Guidance, Shares Surge

The Heist of 100,000 Eggs in Pennsylvania Becomes a Whodunit that Police Have Yet to Crack

Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback

Philip Morris Beats Estimates as Demand for Zyn Pouches Surges

$62,000 for the Super Bowl. $1 Million for Formula 1. How Much Would You Pay for a Sporting Event?

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Morning News: February 5, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 5th, 2025 at 7:10 am

Nigeria Extends Dollar Access as Naira Shows Ongoing Stability

China’s Lunar New Year Travel, Spending Boom Offer Positive Signs

US Postal Service Suspends Inbound Parcels From China, Hong Kong

Trump, Xi Play to Win at Sun Tzu’s Art of Trade War

Most USAID Staff Across the World Will Be Put on Leave This Week

Trump and Musk Are Vandalizing the World

‘Race to the Border’: Manufacturers Scramble Under Trump’s Looming Tariffs

US Tariff Delay Sparks 30-Day Rush Across North America

Trump Lost the Trade War He Started With Canada

How U.S. Agriculture Market Is Approaching Tariffs and a Potential Trade War

DeepSeek and Tariffs Have Roiled the Market. History Shows Deeper Pullbacks Are Coming

US Senate Panel Dives Into Debanking Fight

Neuberger Berman to Buy $1 Billion in Consumer Debt From Fintech

A 900% Stock Surge Creates a Billionaire Couple in India

Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer’s Career. Now He’s Facing Prison

Workers Forced to Return to the Office May Soon Become ‘Accidental Landlords’

Alphabet Earnings Beat Expectations. Why the Stock Is Tumbling.

EU Sets Out Plans to Crack Down on E-Commerce Platforms Amid Product Safety Concerns

The End of Cheap Shein and Temu Hauls? How Trump’s Tariffs Could Make Those Shipments More Expensive

A Hot New Label for Luxury Brands to Consider: ‘Made in America’

The $80 Billion Diamond Market Crash Leaves De Beers Reeling

EU Merger Watchdog Begins Probe of AMD’s $5 Billion ZT Systems Acquisition

Honda and Nissan Merger Talks in Peril

Novo Sees Ozempic Boom Prompting Another Sales Surge

Disney Tops Estimates With Gains From Streaming and ‘Moana 2’

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CWS Market Review – February 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 4th, 2025 at 6:10 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The futures markets start trading late on Sunday evening, and that often gives investors an idea of how the U.S. stock market will open on Monday. This past Sunday, the futures markets were down sharply, over 2%.

It seemed that the Great Trade War of 2025 was finally coming for share prices. President Trump threatened to impose severe tariffs on our neighbors and key trading partners. The U.S. national anthem was even booed at a few hockey games.

The stock market did, indeed, open lower on Monday, and prices drifted downward for about an hour. At its low point, the overall loss on Monday was about 2%.

Fortunately, cooler heads finally prevailed. According to the New York Times, both Canada and Mexico reached last-minute deals to avert a trade war with the United States. At least, the tariffs are going to be delayed for 30 days, but no deal has been reached with China.

The S&P 500 gained back a lot of lost ground, and the market continued to rally higher on Tuesday. Growth stocks and small-caps did especially well on Tuesday. The speed at which these deals were reached tells me there’s absolutely zero desire for a serious trade war.

“Tariffs are very powerful, both economically and in getting everything else you want,” Mr. Trump said on Monday. “When you’re the pot of gold, the tariffs are very good, they’re very powerful and they’re going to make our country very rich again.”

Maybe so, but tariffs haven’t been well liked on Wall Street, as Sunday’s futures showed. On June 17, 1930, President Herbert Hoover ignored the advice of 1,000 economists and signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. The stock market fell 8% that day. Let’s hope we don’t repeat that.

After the closing bell on Tuesday, Google (GOOG) reported earnings of $2.15 per share which was two cents better than estimates. The stock fell about 8% in after-hours trading, which makes me wonder what the expectations really were. Cloud revenue was also on the light side.

Broadridge Rallies on Earnings Beat

Last Friday morning, we got a very good earnings report from Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), one of our Buy List stocks. The report came out too late to cover in last week’s premium issue, so I wanted to share the good news with you today.

If you’re not familiar with Broadridge, it processes all the corporate communications for companies and their shareholders. If you’ve wondered who calculates all those proxies, it’s probably Broadridge. The company holds an 80% market share. This is a great but little-known stock.

A few years ago, The Financial Times called Broadridge, “an obscure but lucrative Wall Street utility.” That’s right, but it’s not obscure to us!

Reuters notes that “the financial services industry is undergoing rapid digital transformation, with companies increasingly adopting cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technologies.”

On Friday, Broadridge said its fiscal-Q2 earnings rose 70% to $1.56 per share. That’s a great result and it topped Wall Street’s call for $1.49 per share. BR’s recurring revenues grew by 9%.

“Broadridge delivered strong second quarter results, including 9% Recurring revenue growth constant currency, record event-driven revenues, and 70% Adjusted EPS growth to $1.56,” said Tim Gokey, Broadridge CEO. “Our Recurring revenue growth was driven by a combination of 7% organic growth and our acquisition of SIS.

“Broadridge is executing on our long-term growth strategy to democratize and digitize investing, simplify and innovate trading, and modernize wealth management. Our strong organic growth continues to be powered by long-term trends, including increasing investor participation, and by the conversion of our record sales backlog,” he continued.

BR’s quarterly adjusted operating margin grew from 12.4% to 16.6%. The company also reiterated its guidance for the current fiscal year, which ends in June.

Broadridge sees recurring revenue for this year growing by 6% to 8%, and earnings growing by 8% to 12%. That works out to earnings of $8.35 to $8.65 per share.

The shares had a very volatile reaction on Friday morning, but once things started to settle down, the stock started to rally, and the gains continued into this week. On Tuesday, the stock hit a fresh all-time high.

We’ve done very well with Broadridge over the years. We first added it to our 2019 Buy List, and it’s been there ever since. We added it at $96.25, and it’s gained 150% since then, not including dividends. One small investing lesson: After 15 months, Broadridge was a loser for us. I’m glad we held on. Broadridge remains a strong buy up to $250 per share.

Last week, the government released its first report on Q4 GDP growth. According to the government bean counters, the U.S. economy grew at a real, annualized rate of 2.3% over the final three months of the year. This was the 11th quarter of expansion in a row, although the growth rate is down from where it was earlier this decade. Wall Street had been expecting 2.5%.

For the year, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% rate. That’s not bad, but it’s down a bit from 2023. Since 1992, the U.S. economy has only had two down years. Over the last 40 years, real GDP per capita has nearly doubled.

I usually don’t follow nominal GDP figures, but with the bad spell of inflation, I saw that nominal GDP, meaning not adjusted for inflation, increased by 36.6% over the last four years. The U.S. economy now totals $30 trillion.

The Federal Reserve met again last week, and this time, the Fed decided against lowering interest rates. The central bank had lowered rates over its previous three meetings, the first one by 0.5%.

It appears that the Fed will be far more modest regarding its plans to lower interest rates this year. Not too long ago, market participants had been expecting the Fed to cut rates four times or more this year.

In the futures market, traders can make bets on what they think the Fed will do. Right now, traders expect the Fed to pause again at its March and May meetings but then cut rates again at the June meeting. After that, traders are evenly split on a rate cut coming in October. I try not to pay too much attention to futures prices that far away. At some point, it’s just a guess.

The next big event will come this Friday when the government releases the jobs report for January. The December jobs report was very strong. It beat expectations by over 100,000 jobs. For January, Wall Street expects the economy to add 169,000 net new jobs and for the unemployment rate to stay at 4.1%.

I’ll be curious what the report has to say about wages. The consensus on Wall Street is that wages grew by 0.3% last month. That would be good, but I’d really like to see it go much higher. After the jobs report, we’ll get the next inflation report on Wednesday, February 12.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: February 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 4th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Why These Companies in Louisville, Ky., Fear Trump’s Tariffs

Dudley: Trump’s Tariffs Are Even Worse Than I Imagined

It’s Almost Like They Knew Trump Was Bluffing

China Hits Back Against Trump’s Tariffs With Targeted Actions

These Are All the US Goods China Is Targeting With Tariffs

Where Trump’s Trade Fight Could Go Next

EU Must Accept Transactional Global Relationships, Commission Chief Von Der Leyen Says

El Salvador Offers to Take US Criminal Deportees of Any Nationality For a Fee

Trump Promised a Cap on Credit Card Interest Rates. Here’s His Chance.

Fed Official Pushes Back on Pre-emptive Policy Moves

Are Markets Underestimating the Tariff Problem?

Apollo Raises Record From Private Wealth as Credit Lures Clients

Intesa Sanpaolo Issues $2.07 Billion Buyback, Raises 2025 Outlook

Amazon, King of Online Retail, Can’t Seem to Make Its Physical Stores Work

AI Resurrecting the Dead Threatens Our Grasp on Reality

How a Sale of TikTok Would Work and Who Might Buy It

Nintendo Cuts Earnings, Switch Sales Guidance Amid Profit Slump

Spotify Reports First Full-Year Profit

Ford’s F-150 Lightning Is Falling Behind Tesla’s Cybertruck in Deepening EV Crisis

Ferrari Expects Higher Revenue and Earnings This Year

Merck Halts China Gardasil Sales, Dragging on 2025 Outlook

How an Activist Group Helped Torpedo MDMA Therapy

Coffee Set for Longest Gaining Streak in 45 Years on Supply Woes

PepsiCo Revenue Slips on Volume Drop for Frito-Lay, Quaker

Smirnoff Maker Diageo Scraps Midterm Guidance Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The $22 Billion Vape Industry Is About to Get Even Messier

The NFL’s Flawed DEI Program Still Beats What Most Companies Are Doing

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Morning News: February 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 3rd, 2025 at 7:06 am

Three Years After Ukraine Invasion, Europe Still Deals With Energy Crisis

Wild Cards for the Green Transition

Trump’s Bid for More Oil Is a Hard Sell for Allies in U.S., Saudi Arabia

Elon Musk Inside the Treasury Department Payment System

Warren Questions Bessent Over Musk Access to Treasury Payment System

Musk Says DOGE Halting Treasury Payments to US Contractors

Trump and Musk’s USAID ‘Shut Down’ Threat Opens Door for China

Brazil Took on Musk and Won. Now Lula Is Sharing Notes With Europe

Trump Raises EU Tariff Threat, Plans Canada and Mexico Calls

What Comes Next as Trump’s Trade War Turns Hot

EU Vows Trade Retaliation With Tusk Slamming ‘Stupid Tariff War’

One Response to Trump’s Tariffs: Trade That Excludes the U.S.

Trump’s ‘Tariff Thrashing’ Spurs Crisis Response From Canada

How Stupid Is This Trade War? Let Me Count the Ways

Trump’s Bullying Trade Tactics Will Backfire

Global Markets Roiled by Trump Tariffs

S&P 500 Will Sink as Trump’s Tariffs Hit Earnings, Goldman’s Kostin Warns

Three Unsettling Lessons From Trump’s Tariff Drama

Metals Markets Slide as Trump’s Tariffs Add to Volatility, Threaten Global Growth

Tariffs Give U.S. Steelmakers a Green Light to Lift Prices

Panama Canal Fees Have Become a Flashpoint. Here’s Why They’ve Risen.

Bessent Takes the Helm on US Debt Sales After Blasting Yellen

Leveraged Ether Traders Caught Off Guard in Trump Tariff Selloff

Parents Ditch 529 Plans and Embrace Bitcoin for College Savings

Why Banks May Be Hoping You’re Not Paying Attention

Wells Fargo Executives Plot Life After $36 Billion Punishment

OpenAI Releases AI Agent Designed to Act Like a Research Analyst

Tesla Sales Plunge 63% in EU’s Second-Biggest EV Market

Tesla Is a Car Company. Its Stock Is a Meme.

Athletes Are Signing Endorsement Deals Before They Get Prom Dates

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Morning News: January 31, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 31st, 2025 at 7:03 am

Putin Is Gaining Allies in Europe at a Bad Time for Ukraine

Tulsi Gabbard Has Five Puppet Masters. Worry Most About the First

Powell’s Fed on Defensive as Diversity Effort Comes Under Fire

US Pulls Further Away From China in Global Economic Ranking

Trump Barrels Toward Tariff Showdown With Top Trade Partners

Loonie Traders Position for Extreme Volatility on Eve of Tariffs

Trump’s Mexico Tariffs Poised to Raise Already High Avocado Prices

High Stakes for Global Companies in Trump’s Latest Tariff Threats

High Inflation Sows Debate About New Fed Playbook for Tariffs

Companies Issue Debt in Fast-Growing Hybrid Bond Market, Citing Ratings Benefits

Nowhere to Hide From Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Plan Could Work If It Weren’t So Broad

Trump Tariffs Could Hurt Oil Companies and Increase Gas Prices

Trump Faces Thorny Choice With Chevron’s Venezuela Licenses

Exxon’s Rising Production Drives Earnings Beat Despite Oil Slide

Green Investors Find a Silver Lining in Trump’s Presidency

India Says China Dominance is A Risk to Clean Energy Transition

Orsted Replaces CEO as Wind Industry Faces Challenges

Tesla and Chinese Carmakers Could See Windfall From E.U. Emissions Rules

Tesla’s ‘Supercharged Narrative’ Shreds Stock’s Valuation Models

Bosch Seeks to Improve Performance Even if Conditions Are Tough

US Probing If DeepSeek Got Nvidia Chips From Firms in Singapore

Meta’s Zuckerberg Takes on DeepSeek With History of Topping Innovative Rivals

Apple’s ‘Best Quarter Ever’ Leaves Much to Be Desired

Boomers as Boogeymen: Should You Fear the ‘Silver Tsunami’?

Ariel Investments Starts New Fund to Tap Into Women’s Sports

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Morning News: January 30, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 30th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Europe’s Insurers May Face New Capital Rules for Climate Risk

Rally in Middle East Oil Has Traders Piling In at Record Level

Tariffs Won’t Sink Canadian Oil Companies

Shell and Equinor Production Blocked at 2 Sites Off British Coast

Shell Keeps $3.5 Billion Buyback Amid Earnings Miss

EU’s Frontline Nations See €100 Billion in Urgent Defense Needs

ECB Cuts Rates With Economy at a Standstill

Mexico Economy Shrinks for First Time Since 2021 as Risks Rise

Trump’s Tariffs Scramble Fed’s Interest Rate Calculus

Treasuries Rise as Traders Eye US Data After Little Fed Guidance

White House Considers Dozens of New Ways to Seize Spending Power

Trump Keeps World Waiting on Tariffs, Tries to Hash Out a Plan

Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout

Sahm: Even Talking About Tariffs Can Cause Inflation

Wealth Adviser Builds $11 Billion Fortune on Goldman, TPG Deals

Goldman Is Selling a Wealth-Advisory Unit to $240 Billion Money Manager

Pentagon Launches Probe of Air Crash in Hegseth’s First Big Test

DeepSeek’s AI Triumph Shouldn’t Deep-Six Chip Curbs

Microsoft Has Kind Words for DeepSeek AI, Offers It to Customers

SoftBank in Talks to Invest Up to $25 Billion in OpenAI

Meta Gains After Zuckerberg Predicts ‘Really Big Year’ in AI

Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence

Russian Oligarch Held Stake in Musk’s SpaceX Through Trust While He Was Sanctioned

Bill Gates Isn’t Like Those Other Tech Billionaires

Comcast Sales, Profit Beat as ‘Wicked’ Lifts Film Studio

UPS Shares Sink on Disappointing Forecast for Parcel Demand

Cigna Tumbles After Quarterly Profit Hit by Medical Costs

The Internet Almost Killed Barnes & Noble, Then Saved It

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Morning News: January 29, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 29th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Sweden’s Central Bank Cuts Rate Again, Signals It Could Be Finished Easing

They Invested Billions. Then the A.I. Script Got Flipped.

Meta Gave Away Its A.I. Crown Jewels. DeepSeek Vindicated Its Strategy.

DeepSeek Is Coming for Sam Altman’s Other Company Too

Alibaba Touts New AI Model Superior to DeepSeek’s and Meta’s

DeepSeek Calls for Deep Breaths From Big Tech Over Earnings

Microsoft Probing If DeepSeek-Linked Group Improperly Obtained OpenAI Data

Leaving the W.H.O. Could Hurt Americans on a Range of Health Matters

Trump’s Tariffs Hit US Growth Before, and Threaten to Again

Trump Wants to ‘Impound’ Money That Congress Appropriated. Here’s What It Means

Trump Buyouts, Spending Freezes Wreak Havoc Across Government

In Trump’s Economy, Trump Gets to Pick the Winners and Losers

Trump Can Have Lower Interest Rates Without Bullying the Fed

Fed to Hold Rates Steady and Brace for Trump

U.S. Consumers Lose Confidence at Start of Trump’s Second Term

HSBC’s Longshot Dream of Rivaling Wall Street Comes to an End

HSBC’s Global Brand in the Balance as It Doubles Down on Asia Bet

If Goldman Is the Future of Diversity, We Have a Problem

Tesla’s $600 Billion Run-Up Looks Past Major Risks to EV Growth

Frontier Airlines Is Bidding for Spirit—Again

T-Mobile Earnings Beat Projections on Mobile Subscriber Gains

Corning Swings to Profit, Sees Sales Growth on AI-Driven Demand

KKR Builds Stake in Medical-Supply Company, Reaches Deal for Board Seats

VF Corp. Sales Top Estimates Signaling Turnaround Is Working

Whole Foods Union Faces Tough Task to Secure Contract With Amazon

Indy Pass, the Anti-Vail Seasonal Ski Ticket, Is Gaining Fans

Sundance Made Park City the It Town. Not Anymore.

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