Morning News: November 16, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 16th, 2018 at 7:04 am

Chip Stock Carnage Seeps Into Asia With $11 Billion Lost

Two Words That Sent the Oil Market Plunging: Negative Gamma

F.D.A. Seeks Restrictions on Teens’ Access to Flavored E-Cigarettes and a Ban on Menthol Cigarettes

The Best Shopping Holiday for Travelers May Not Be Black Friday (But It’s Close)

Deutsche Bank, BofA, JPM Are Drawn Into Danske Probe

Mark Zuckerberg Defends Facebook as Furor Over Its Tactics Grows

Why Amazon Chose the Wrong Locations For Its HQ2

T-Mobile Says Sprint Deal May Close as Early as First-Quarter Next Year

Bankrupt Sears Wins Court Approval for Plans to Sell Stores

Tractor Maker Deere Aims to Ride Green Revolution in Africa

Cryptocurrency Hangover Weighs on Nvidia

PG&E Shares Surge 40% on Report Regulator Wants to Avoid Bankruptcy From Wildfire

Ben Carlson: Revisiting the 4% Rule

Jeff Carter: Eloquence and Bluntness

Jeff Miller: Boost Your JM Smuckers Dividend Yield

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Retail Sales Rose 0.8% in October
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 15th, 2018 at 2:40 pm

Retail sales rose 0.8% last month. Wall Street had been expecting 0.5%. In the past year, retail sales are up 4.6%. Not including gasoline, retail sales rose 0.5% in October.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

Data for September was revised lower to show core retail sales rising 0.3 percent instead of gaining 0.5 percent as previously reported.

A strong labor market, characterized by a 3.7 percent unemployment rate, is underpinning consumer spending. The lowest unemployment rate in nearly 49 years is boosting wages, with annual wage growth recording its biggest increase in 9-1/2 years in October.

The retail sales report suggested consumer spending retained most of its strong momentum at the start of the fourth quarter, likely keeping the economy on a strong growth path, despite the trade deficit expected to deteriorate further and the housing market continuing to weaken.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the July-September quarter.

October’s strength in retail sales bodes well ahead of the holiday shopping season. The Commerce Department said it could not isolate the impact of Hurricane Florence, which lashed North and South Carolina in mid-September, on retail sales.

Morning News: November 15, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 15th, 2018 at 7:16 am

Fear of Hard Brexit and Corbyn ‘Armageddon’ Sinks U.K. Banks

Powell Says Solid Economy Faces Headwinds as Fed Mulls Rates

Delay, Deny and Deflect: How Facebook’s Leaders Fought Through Crisis

Ford CEO Open to Investors in Autonomous Vehicles But Cautious on VW

Adecco Chief Calls for Life-Long Learning to Dodge Jobs ‘Time Bomb’

Cisco Turns Concerns Into Positives With Strong Earnings

Move Slow and Make Things: Airtable’s Howie Liu Built A $1B Software Giant Emphasizing Substance Over Speed

Snap Falls Amid Investigations of IPO Disclosures

Another Apple Supplier Just Cut Its Forecast

Dell Sweetens Key Deal Terms in Path Back to Public Markets

Uber’s Losses Continue Ahead of Initial Public Offering

Millennials Are Disrupting Thanksgiving With Their Tiny Turkeys

Joshua Brown, Michael Batnick, Ben Carlson: What Are Your Thoughts: Something Big Is Coming

Jeff Miller: The Costly Craving for Reasons

Roger Nusbaum: Solving, Not Blaming

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Wabtec Shareholders Approve GE Deal
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 14th, 2018 at 4:29 pm

Press Release:

Wabtec Corporation (WAB) announced that at a special meeting today the company’s stockholders approved proposals in connection with its planned combination with GE Transportation.

Raymond T. Betler, Wabtec’s president and chief executive officer, said: “We’re very gratified that our stockholders expressed strong support for the proposals and, therefore, our combination with GE Transportation. This milestone marks a critical step in the process toward merging our two companies, which we believe will accelerate innovation for our customers; generate improved earnings, margins and cash flow for our stockholders; and create long-term growth opportunities for our employees.”

The transaction is expected to be completed by early 2019, subject to customary closing conditions. It is possible that the proposed combination could be completed at an earlier time if the closing conditions are satisfied sooner.

At today’s special meeting, more than 99 percent of the shares that were voted, or more than 85 percent of Wabtec’s total outstanding common stock entitled to vote, approved an amendment to Wabtec’s charter to increase the number of authorized shares of the company’s common stock and the issuance of its common stock in connection with the planned combination.

Wabtec Corporation is a leading global provider of equipment, systems and value-added services for transit and freight rail. Through its subsidiaries, Wabtec manufactures a range of products for locomotives, freight cars and passenger transit vehicles. Wabtec also builds new switcher and commuter locomotives, and provides aftermarket services. Wabtec has facilities located throughout the world.

October CPI +0.3
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 14th, 2018 at 10:03 am

I had been saying that I was expecting inflation to run a bit hot in October. This morning’s CPI report partially vindicates my view.

For October, consumer prices rose by 0.3%. That’s the biggest increase in nine months. The core rate rose by just 0.1%.

In the last 12 months, the regular CPI is up 2.5% while the core rate is up by 2.2%.

The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged last Thursday, but is expected to increase borrowing costs in December for a fourth time this year. In its statement after last week’s policy meeting, the Fed noted that annual inflation measures “remain near 2 percent.”

Last month, gasoline prices rebounded 3.0 percent, accounting for more than one-third of the increase in the CPI, after slipping 0.2 percent in September.

Food prices fell 0.1 percent after being unchanged in September. Food consumed at home declined for a second straight month in October. Food prices were held down by cheaper bread, cereals, pork, dairy products, fruits and vegetables.

Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, rose 0.3 percent in October after advancing 0.2 percent in the prior month. The rent index gained 0.2 percent.

Healthcare costs increased 0.2 percent last month after a similar gain in September. Apparel prices edged up 0.1 percent after jumping 0.9 percent in September.

Oil had fallen for the last 12 days in a row. It looks like that streak will end today.

Morning News: November 14, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 14th, 2018 at 7:12 am

Crude’s Collapse Is Sending Shockwaves Across Global Markets

Japan, German Contractions Open Cracks in Global Economy

Weaker Retail Sales Loom Over China’s Economy Despite Some Bright Spots

Greenspan Says U.S. May Be Seeing the First Signs of Inflation

Billionaire Cohen Says Bear Market Coming Within Two Years

Dominating Retail? Yes. Reviving a City? No Thanks.

Who Has the Copyright Over My Cheese?

FAA Launches Review of Boeing’s Safety Analyses

Snap Reveals U.S. Subpoenas on IPO Disclosures

Pfizer Loses Blockbuster Drug Patent Fight in UK Supreme Court

Waymo CEO Says Alphabet Unit Plans to Launch Driverless Car Service in Coming Months

Is Apple Trying to Hide Something From Investors?

Nick Maggiulli: The Old Gods and the New

Ben Carlson: What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?

Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: How to Create the Perfect Fund

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Introducing @CrossingWallSt on Premo
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 13th, 2018 at 9:44 am

Big news! I’m happy to announce that I’ve partnered with the good folks at Premo Social to start a premium Twitter feed.

For $30 per month, this feed has all the benefits of Twitter but without the trolls, hacks and stock promoters. We’ve taken regular Twitter and made it a lot better. It’s an outlet for investors to discuss the markets in greater detail without having scammers try to hijack the conversation.

I’m really excited about this, and I’d love to have you join us. It’s so cheap, you can’t afford not to sign up! You can sign up here.

What are you waiting for???

This is much more than a regular Twitter feed. @CrossingWallSt has lots more news and analysis on what you need to know to be an informed investor. This is an important time for the market and the economy so don’t be left behind. We’re offering a great product for investors in this difficult period.

Come on and join us today!

Morning News: November 13, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 13th, 2018 at 7:07 am

OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Declining Faster as Rivals Surge

Yellen Says Fed More to Blame for Wider Trade Deficit Than China

China’s Liu and Mnuchin Talk Trade for the First Time in Months

Could Oysters Ease Trade Tensions With U.S.? European Leaders Hope So

Trump’s Tax Cut Was Supposed to Change Corporate Behavior. Here’s What Happened.

Amazon’s Grand Search For 2nd Headquarters Ends With Split: NYC And D.C. Suburb

Stocks Dive After Apple Supplier Slashes Outlook

Apple Has a Plan B as iPhone Demand Peaks; Many Suppliers Don’t

WeWork’s Rise: How a Sublet Start-Up Is Taking Over

Goldman Sachs Tumbles on 1MDB Scandal and ‘Fear of the Unknown’

Home Depot Tops Sales Estimates, Boosts Annual Forecasts

Clean Energy Is Surging, but Not Fast Enough to Solve Global Warming

Jeff Carter: There Ain’t No Such Thing As a Free Lunch

Roger Nusbaum: In Search Of Kind Of Close

Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday ….The Trumpy Bear Market of 2019?

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Three Very Good Days for Our Buy List
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2018 at 5:21 pm

The stock market has fallen over the last three days while our Buy List has beaten the market each of those days — and by a good amount. The S&P 500 is down 3.12% since last Thursday while our Buy List is down just 1.10%.

It always seems a little odd highlighting your outperformance during a difficult period. I call this the “we suck less” line, but frankly, this is a very important thing to do. What truly helps long-term success is holding up better during difficult times.

Part of our recent success lately has been due to the market’s shift towards defensiveness. I’ll give some examples. Amazon is now 20% below its high. Google is 18% below its high. Facebook is 35% below its high. Now let’s look at some stocks that made new highs today: Coke, McDonalds, Procter & Gamble, Clorox and Hormel Foods. All staples.

Meanwhile, commodities are suffering. The price of silver closed at $14.01 per ounce. That’s its lowest price since early 2016.

West Texas crude has now fallen for 11 sessions in a row. On October 26, oil closed at $67.59 per barrel. Today, it closed at $59.93.

Morning News: November 12, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2018 at 7:12 am

How an Intelligence Expert Helps Wall Street Mavens Think Smarter

This Is How the Unicorn Bubble Will Burst

This Is the Single Most Meaningless Shopping Event

If OPEC Thought Its Job Was Done, 2019 Will Be a Nasty Shock

Oil Pucks and Pellets; Canada Eyes New Ways to Move Stranded Crude

How Trump’s Trade War Went From 18 Products to 10,000

No Joke: Donald Trump Once Proposed a Tax-the-Rich Strategy to Save Social Security

SoftBank Targets $20 Billion IPO for Japanese Mobile Unit

How One Family Built $8 Billion Startup Far From Silicon Valley

Veritas Capital, Elliott Clinch $5.5 Billion Acquisition of Athenahealth

Diageo Sells Seagram’s and Sambuca Brands

Vista Reaches Deal to Buy Software Firm Apptio for $1.94 Billion

Joshua Brown: My Favorite Tax

Ben Carlson: Trends & Time Lapses

Jeff Miller: Market Storm Averted?

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