New High for AFLAC
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2018 at 11:36 am

Shares of AFLAC (AFL) had a rough June, but the recent strong earnings report combined with higher guidance has pushed the duck stock to a new all-time high.

Alliance Data Announces $500 million Buyback
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2018 at 10:03 am

This morning, Alliance Data Systems (ADS) announced a new $500 million share buyback program.

Alliance Data Systems Corporation (NYSE: ADS), a leading global provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions, today announced that its board of directors has approved a new $500 million share repurchase program beginning August 1, 2018 to replace the current program that expires July 31, 2018.

Repurchases will be financed primarily through free cash flow. The Company expects to maintain moderate levels of debt over the course of the repurchase program, providing flexibility to pursue tuck-in acquisitions or portfolio purchases.

“This repurchase agreement demonstrates the Board’s confidence in our business model, our financial performance, and our commitment to delivering value to our stakeholders,” said Charles Horn, chief financial officer of Alliance Data. “We will opportunistically repurchase our stock, while maintaining ample liquidity to have the flexibility to support our growth, as well as the continuation of a quarterly dividend.”

Morning News: July 30, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2018 at 6:53 am

Mark Carney Is Preparing for Brexit and the Next Crisis

Oil Rises After Fourth Weekly Decline as Supply Risks Persist

Debt Is the Easy Way for Aramco

The U.S. Is Still The Global Natural Gas King

Powell to Duck Trump Jabs and Let Economy Justify Fed Rate Pause

BMW is Hiking the Prices of American-Made SUVs in China

Coca-Cola Raises Prices On Trump’s Favorite Drink Over Tariffs

The FAANG-Nary In The Coal Mine

Have a Cryptocurrency Company? Bermuda, Malta or Gibraltar Wants You

The Big Mac at 50: McDonald’s CEO on ‘MacCoin,’ the Big Mac Index, and Why There Will Probably Never Be a Veggie Big Mac

SoftBank-Owned ARM Is Said to Agree to Buy Treasure Data

3 Reasons a $1 Million Nest Egg Won’t Cut It in Retirement

Cullen Roche: Three Things I Think I Think – GDP, Housing and Bad Narratives & The Best Investment Writing – Volume 2

Michael Batnick: These Are the Goods

Howard Lindzon: Keep An Eye On Homebuilders and Some Good Reads

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Q2 GDP = 4.1%
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 27th, 2018 at 12:50 pm

The second-quarter GDP is out. The U.S. economy grew by 4.1% during the second three months of the year.

The U.S. economy grew at the strongest pace in nearly four years during the second quarter, powered by a rebound in consumer spending, strong exports and firm business investment.

Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4.1% from April through June, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was a pickup from the first quarter’s revised growth rate of 2.2%.

The bounce back in consumer spending “was more powerful than anticipated and speaks to the impact of an increasingly tight labor market and strong job growth on consumer income and households’ confidence,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said in a note to clients, adding the “numbers really bring the possibility of 3% growth for 2018 as a whole into the frame.” Compared with the second quarter a year ago, output grew 2.8%.

President Donald Trump said Friday that the U.S. economy is growing at a “very sustainable” pace and predicted that it will expand at least 3% for the year.

The president touted his own track record since taking office, saying that the economy is growing at a pace 10 times faster than during the presidencies of George W. Bush or Barack Obama.

While last quarter was good, let’s remember that the U.S. economy grew at a faster rate during the entire time from 1950 through 1978 than it did last quarter.

Here’s a look at recent quarterly growth rates:

Here’s year-over-year change in nominal GDP growth:

Moody’s Earned $2.04 per Share
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 27th, 2018 at 9:27 am

This morning, Moody’s (MCO) reported Q2 earnings of $2.04 per share. Wall Street had been looking for $1.89 per share. Here are some details:

2Q18 revenue of $1.2 billion up 17% from 2Q17
2Q18 operating income up 16% from 2Q17; adjusted operating income up 17%1
2Q18 diluted EPS of $1.94 up 20% from 2Q17; adjusted diluted EPS of $2.04, up 32%
Reaffirming FY 2018 diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS guidance ranges of $7.20 to $7.40 and $7.65 to $7.85, respectively

“Moody’s second quarter revenue increased 17%, reflecting strong performance at Moody’s Analytics, driven by contribution from Bureau van Dijk, as well as record revenue for Moody’s Investors Service, primarily due to robust bank loan and collateralized loan obligation market activity,” said Raymond McDaniel, President and Chief Executive Officer of Moody’s. “Additionally, we are reaffirming our full year 2018 guidance of $7.20 to $7.40 for diluted EPS and $7.65 to $7.85 for adjusted diluted EPS.”

SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

Moody’s Corporation reported record revenue of $1.2 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2018, up 17% from the second quarter of 2017, including eight percentage points of growth attributable to Bureau van Dijk.

Operating expenses totaled $641.1 million, up 19% from the prior-year period, including 11 percentage points attributable to Bureau van Dijk operating expenses, amortization of acquired intangible assets, as well as non-recurring acquisition and integration expenses associated with the Bureau van Dijk acquisition (“Acquisition-Related Expenses”).

Operating income was $534.0 million, up 16% from the second quarter of 2017. Adjusted operating income, which excludes depreciation and amortization, as well as Acquisition-Related Expenses, was $584.4 million, up 17% from the prior-year period. Operating margin for the second quarter was 45.4% and the adjusted operating margin was 49.7%.

Diluted EPS of $1.94 was up 20% from the second quarter of 2017. Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.04 was up 32%. Second quarter 2018 adjusted diluted EPS excludes $0.10 per share related to amortization of acquired intangible assets and Acquisition-Related Expenses. Second quarter 2017 adjusted diluted EPS primarily excludes a $0.13 foreign currency hedge gain. Both second quarter 2018 diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS include a $0.02 per share tax benefit related to the adoption of accounting standard update ASU 2016-09, “Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment Accounting,” compared to a $0.05 per share tax benefit in the second quarter of 2017.

Despite the earnings beat, shares of MCO lost 4.9% on Friday.

CWS Market Review – July 27, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 27th, 2018 at 7:08 am

“As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes.” – John Maynard Keynes

This week, the stock market inched closer to a new all-time high. In fact, we got so close that the dividend-adjusted index actually did touch a new high. The reason for the happy mood is good earnings. The earnings “beat rate” is currently running at 84%. That’s very good. Historically, the beat rate runs at about 67%.

(Note that I’m leaving out Facebook. On Thursday, traders gave the Zuck a super-atomic wedgie thanks to Facebook’s lousy earnings report. The stock lost an amazing $120 billion in market value. For some context, that’s equivalent to about $15 for every person in the world.)

Our Buy List had a very good week. Six of our stocks reported earnings, and all six beat expectations. All but one raised full-year guidance. The only one that didn’t, Check Point Software, was our best performer. CHKP beat earnings and doubled its share buyback, and the stock jumped more than 5%. There’s a lot of earnings news to get to, so let’s jump right in.

This Week’s Buy List Earnings Reports

Here’s an updated look at our Q2 Buy List Earnings Calendar:

On Tuesday morning, three of our Buy List stocks reported earnings. First up is Sherwin-Williams (SHW). Going into the report, I had been concerned about some of the issues surrounding the Valspar merger. Fortunately, those issues look to be resolved.

Wall Street had been expecting earnings of $5.66 per share. In last week’s issue of CWS Market Review, I said, “they should be able to beat that.” Turns out, I was right. For Q2, Sherwin made $5.73 per share, a seven-cent beat. Sherwin also bumped up its full-year guidance range to $19.05 – $19.35 per share.

CEO John G. Morikis said, “The Company posted record results in net sales, gross profit and profit before taxes in the second quarter, aided by the Valspar acquisition, which continues to build momentum [yay!! – Eddy]. Consolidated earnings per share expanded by 26.8% percent in the quarter, excluding acquisition-related costs and environmental-expense-provisions impacts in both years. Underlying demand remained solid across most of our end market segments during the quarter. At the same time, raw-material costs continued to inflate during the quarter at a rate slightly higher than anticipated. We continue to focus on offsetting these escalating costs by controlling spending and implementing price increases.”

This was a good report. Shares of SHW rallied after the news and kept going. On Thursday, SHW got very close to breaking $450 per share. This year, this stock basically went from being a 10% loser to being a 10% winner. This is precisely why we use the strategy we do. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Sherwin to $460 per share.

Wabtec (WAB), our freight-services stock, said they made 96 cents per share for Q2, which beat estimates by three cents per share.

Raymond T. Betler, Wabtec’s president and chief executive officer, said: “Our second-quarter results were on target, and with a strong backlog and the positive indicators we see in our markets, we’re comfortable increasing our guidance for the year. Our freight business demonstrated strong growth in revenues and income from operations, and we expect demand to continue to improve. In transit, as expected we are managing through some lower-margin contracts in the short term while making long-term improvements in the core business. Overall, we’re pleased with our year-to-date performance, excited about the opportunities we see from our combination with GE Transportation and confident we can deliver improved earnings, margins and cash flow in the future.”

Wabtec also increased its full-year guidance. They expect revenues to be about $4.2 billion and EPS to be about $3.85. That doesn’t include costs related to the GE deal. WAB’s operating margin target for the full year is about 13.5%, and its effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be about 24% excluding the second-quarter tax benefit. I like these numbers.

WAB broke out to yet another new high this week. The stock is now a 33.7% winner for us this year. I’m lifting our Buy Below to $111 per share.

Stryker (SYK) was our only dud, and even that wasn’t much of a dud. The orthopedic company reported Q2 earnings of $1.76 per share. That’s above its guidance range of $1.70 to $1.75 per share. Net sales rose 10.3% to $3.3 billion.

For Q3, they’re looking for earnings between $1.65 and $1.70 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.69 per share. I think we dodged a bullet when the Boston Scientific deal fell through.

For all of 2018, Stryker now expects earnings to range between $7.22 and $7.27 per share. That’s their second increase this year. SYK’s initial range was $7.07 to $7.17 per share. Then it went to $7.18 to $7.25 per share. This basically means the company is baking the Q2 earnings beat into the full-year guidance. They’re not lifting second-half expectations.

The stock dropped after the earnings report, but not by much. Stryker is still a 10.7% winner for us this year. SYK is a buy up to $181 per share.

We had two more reports on Wednesday. Torchmark (TMK) reported after the bell, but it popped 3.5% on Thursday thanks to another good earnings report. Don’t let these quiet stocks fool you. This is a very good company.

For Q2, TMK made $1.51 per share. That beat estimates by two cents per share. The company also raised guidance. Torchmark’s initial guidance for this year was $5.93 to $6.07 per share. I said I thought that was too low and that they could probably hit $6.10 per share in 2018. Well, they upped their guidance range to $6.02 to $6.12 per share.

There’s not much more to say about TMK. The stock is still going for a decent valuation. TMK remains a good buy up to $91 per share.

Check Point Software (CHKP) might be our star this earnings season. On Wednesday morning, Check Point said it earned $1.37 per share for Q2. Their guidance had been for between $1.25 and 1.35 per share. The company is also doubling its share buyback from $1 billion to $2 billion.

For Q3, they expect revenues between $454 million and $474 million and EPS in the range of $1.30 to $1.40. The full-year outlook is unchanged at $5.45 to $5.75 per share. If you recall, in April, they lowered their full-year guidance. It’s good to see that the concerns from earlier this year have passed.

This is another case where our buy-and-hold strategy paid off. Shares of CHKP jumped 5.2% on Wednesday, and the stock is up more than 10% for us this year. I’m lifting our Buy Below on Check Point to $120 per share.

After the bell on Thursday, AFLAC (AFL) had a reassuring earnings report. The duck stock hasn’t been so hot lately, and I suspect that some of that was due to the yen, but the good news is that for Q2, AFLAC earned $1.07 per share. That’s quite good.

For some context, AFL previously told us they had been expecting Q2 earnings to range between 91 cents and $1.05 per share. That assumed the yen averaged between ¥100 and ¥110 to the dollar. For Q2, the exchange rate knocked off one penny per share.

The numbers were pretty solid for AFLAC. The company is bumping up its guidance for this year. The previous range was $3.72 to $3.88 per share. The new range is $3.90 to $4.06 per share. That assumes ¥112.16 yen to the dollar. You’ll notice that the increase is larger than the Q2 earnings beat, so they’re raising expectations for the second half. Going by the new guidance, it means AFLAC is going for about 11 times earnings.

For Q2, AFLAC expects earnings of 87 cents to $1.02 per share. That assumes an exchange rate of ¥110 to ¥115 to the dollar. Wall Street had been expecting 98 cents per share. AFLAC is a steady ship. I’m keeping my Buy Below on AFL at $50 per share.

Nine More Buy List Earnings Next Week

We have nine more earnings reports coming next week. There’s also Moody’s (MCO), which reports later today. For Q1, Wall Street expects $1.89 per share. (Later today, we’re also getting the initial Q2 GDP report. This could be a big story.)

On Tuesday, Carriage Services (CSV) and Fiserv are scheduled to report. In April, Carriage Services had a good earnings report. The bad news is that they lowered their guidance. The funeral-home company now expects forward fourth-quarter earnings of $1.80 to $1.85 per share. That was a decrease of 20 cents per share at both ends. The consensus for Q2 is for 37 cents per share, but that’s the average of just two analysts.

Fiserv (FISV) is having another good year. The company reiterated its full EPS forecast of $3.02 to $3.15 per share. That’s an increase of 22% to 27% over last year. The company also expects internal revenue growth of at least 4.5% this year. For Q2, Wall Street expects 74 cents per share. That sounds about right.

Next Thursday will be a very busy day for us. We have seven Buy List stocks scheduled to report.

Becton, Dickinson (BDX) is turning into a nice winner for us this year. The company sees 2018 earnings coming in between $10.90 and $11.05 per share. The analyst consensus is for $2.86 per share.

Cerner (CERN) got clocked after its last earnings report. They met expectations and lowered guidance. At one point, the stock was down 10%, but it quickly rallied back as strong stocks tend to do.

Cerner now expects 2018 earnings of $2.45 to $2.55 per share. They blamed the lower guidance on “the delay of a large contract and a less predictable end market.” For Q2, the healthcare-IT firm sees earnings coming in between 59 and 61 cents per share.

Like Sherwin-Williams, Church & Dwight (CHD) went from being a 10% loser this year to a 10% winner. For Q2, CHD expects earnings of 46 cents per share. They should top that. For the year, they’re looking for $2.24 to $2.28 per share.

Cognizant Technology (CTSH) expects Q2 earnings of at least $1.09 per share and revenues between $4 and $4.04 billion. In May, the company lowered its full-year forecast. Originally, CTSH was expecting earnings of at least $4.53 per share. Now they expect at least $4.47 per share. It’s not big, but Wall Street didn’t like it.

Continental Building Products (CBPX) missed earnings last time. It was only by a penny, but I had been expecting a beat. Business is still going well. Weather may have a played a role, but importantly, gross margins increased. Continental had announced a price increase for January 1. As a result, a lot of customers bought before that, so results in Q1 reflected the aftermath. I think it’s important that they haven’t changed their 2018 outlook.

Ingredion (INGR) is this year’s problem-child stock. There’s always one. They lowered guidance in May. Then, two weeks ago, the company warned that its Q2 results will be between $1.63 and $1.68 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.92 per share.

Ingredion also lowered its full-year guidance from $7.90 – $8.20 per share down to $7.50 – $7.80 per share. That’s the second time they’ve lowered guidance this year. Ingredion also announced an aggressive cost-cutting program. That usually makes me suspicious. A good company should always be looking to cut costs. I want to hear more details on their plans for this year.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) recently broke out its trading range. The stock seemed to be stuck between $70 and $75. Lately, however, it’s started to move. On Thursday, ICE closed at $77.05 per share, which is a new all-time high. Analysts are looking for Q2 earnings of 89 cents per share.

That’s all for now. More earnings to come next week. There will also be a Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is due out Wednesday afternoon at 2 pm ET. Don’t expect any rate hikes this meeting. Also on Wednesday, we’ll get the latest ISM report. Then on Friday is the July jobs report. The unemployment rate could hit a multi-decade low. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Syndication Partners

I’ve teamed up with Investors Alley to feature some of their content. I think they have really good stuff. Check it out!

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Morning News: July 27, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 27th, 2018 at 7:05 am

ECB Keeps to Policy Path to End Bond Purchases

China Deflects Blame for Qualcomm Nixing $44 Billion NXP Deal

Trump’s Trade Truce With Europe Has a Familiar Feel: It Mirrors Obama’s Path

Facebook Suffers Biggest One-Day Wipeout in U.S. Stock Market History, Zuckerberg Loses Over $15 Billion

Amazon.com Inc. Earnings Saw $1.8 Billion in Domestic Retail Profits

How Bad Is Tesla’s Cash Position?

Twitter Projects Users to Decline, Profit Short of Estimates

BP to Buy BHP Shale Assets for More Than $10 Billion

Ex-Googler Becomes China’s 12th Richest Person

Winklevoss Twins Bitcoin ETF Rejected by SEC

Papa John’s Founder Takes Legal Action Against Pizza Chain

Lawrence Hamtil: A Few Myths and the Articles That Dispelled Them

Blue Harbinger: How Does Earnings Season Impact Your Trades?

Ben Carlson: 10 Money Revelations From Being a Parent

Jeff Carter: Being Tenacious

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Morning News: July 26, 2018
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 26th, 2018 at 7:11 am

Wages Are Rising in Europe. But Economists Are Puzzled.

Facebook Just Learned the True Cost of Fixing Its Problems

Ripple Effects of Facebook Slump Already Spreading

Carpocalypse Descends on Detroit After Nightmare Day of Earnings

GM Posts Higher Profit, Lowers Outlook Amid Steel, Aluminum Costs

Qualcomm Plans to Abandon NXP Deal Amid U.S.-China Tensions

Walmart To Test Self-Driving Cars For Grocery Pickup Service

GlaxoSmithKline Is Acquiring a $300 Million Stake in Genetic-Testing Company 23andMe

Boeing’s $418 Million Tanker Writedown Rattles Investors

Comcast’s Slow Sales Underscore Appetite for Global Megadeals

Gimme a break? Nestle Suffers Another Blow in KitKat Trademark Case

Mattel Is Cutting More than 2,200 Jobs as Revenue Falls for Fourth-Straight Quarter

Joshua Brown: “How do you start a life these days?”

Roger Nusbaum: WTF Just Happened To Facebook?

Michael Batnick: Pick One Stock & Ratios

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New All-Time High
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 25th, 2018 at 5:33 pm

The S&P 500 Total Return Index (meaning dividend-adjusted) just closed at an all-time high. On January 26, it closed at 5,606.08 Today, it closed at 5,607.99.

Torchmark Earned $1.51 per Share
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 25th, 2018 at 4:45 pm

After the bell, Torchmark (TMK) reported Q2 earnings of $1.51 per share.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Net income as an ROE(1) was 12.2%. Net operating income as an ROE excluding net unrealized gains on fixed maturities(1) was 14.6%.
Life underwriting margins increased over the year-ago quarter by 9% and health underwriting margins increased over the year-ago quarter by 8%.

Life premiums increased over the year-ago quarter by 9% at American Income and health premiums increased by 8% at Family Heritage.
Average producing agent count increased over the year-ago quarter by 9% at Liberty National.

1.0 million shares of common stock were repurchased during the quarter.

Torchmark’s initial guidance for this year was $5.93 to $6.07 per share. I said I thought that was too low and that they could probably hit $6.10 per share in 2018. Well, they just upped their guidance ranged to $6.02 to $6.12 per share.