• Q2 GDP Revised to 3.0%
    Posted by on August 30th, 2017 at 11:33 am

    This morning, the government revised their Q2 GDP report to growth of 3.0%. The initial report was for 2.6%. As it turns out, last quarter was the best quarter for GDP growth of the last nine quarters.

    It’s interesting that last quarter came in at 3% because that used to be the average. But since the financial crisis, 3% is pretty good. Of the last ten years, or 40 quarters, Q2 2017 was the ninth best quarter for GDP. But in the ten years prior to that, last quarter would have been 23rd.

  • Morning News: August 30, 2017
    Posted by on August 30th, 2017 at 7:03 am

    Expedia Chief Dara Khosrowshahi Accepts Job as Uber’s New CEO

    Uber Announces Plan To Quit Tracking Riders After Drop-Off

    Fox News Pulled Off The Air In Britain

    Lean Inventory Drives Home-Price Gain in 20 U.S. Cities

    No, Sept. 1 Isn’t Deadline for Hurricane-Damage Claims Under New Texas Law

    Gasoline Hits 2-Year High as Harvey Shuts Biggest U.S. Refinery

    87 Reasons We Love Warren Buffett

    When The Crypto Bubble Pops, Remember the Day Burger King Launched WhopperCoin

    Billion-Dollar Kik Taps $125 Million Token Offering To Energize User Base

    `Cortana, Open Alexa,’ Amazon Says. And Microsoft Agrees.

    Bain-Led Consortium in Last-Minute $18 Billion Bid for Toshiba Chip Unit

    Carl Icahn Unloads Unfinished Las Vegas Casino For $600 Million–More Than Four Times What He Paid

    Howard Lindzon: Premium Mediocre

    Ben Carlson: Decisions, Decisions

    Jeff Carter: The Investor Can’t Execute

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  • Hilliard Lyons on Smucker
    Posted by on August 29th, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    From Barron’s, here’s Hilliard Lyons on Smucker (SJM):

    Our two-year price target on Smucker is lowered by $10 to $130 per share.

    Smucker (ticker: SJM) shares are trading at 13.8 times our fiscal 2018 earnings-per-share estimate (excluding amortization and nonrecurring items). This is below an 18.5 times figure one year ago and a 10-year average forward multiple of 16.4 times. Our outlook assumes negligible EPS growth this year, improving to upper single-digit growth in subsequent years. We assume some valuation expansion from the current level.

    We rate Smucker shares at Long-term Buy. We consider the company a high achiever, with notable histories of both organic and external growth. Given some expected near-term earnings pressure, but a more favorable outlook over the next few years, we believe our Long-term Buy rating is most appropriate. Our new two-year price target of $130 is based on a slightly lower future EPS assumption. We still assume negligible EPS growth in fiscal 2018 and mid- to upper-single-digit growth in fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020. Our target is based on a price/earnings multiple of 14.3 times applied to a fiscal 2020 EPS estimate of $9.10; both of these figures are below our previous assumptions. The assumed 14.3 times multiple is above the current depressed multiple of 13.8 times, based on our fiscal 2018 EPS estimate, but is still well below the historical average.

  • Morning News: August 29, 2017
    Posted by on August 29th, 2017 at 7:06 am

    Draghi’s Jackson Hole Joy Eclipsed By Europe’s Exigent Banks

    EU’s Juncker Slams U.K.’s Brexit Position Papers as Talks Resume

    Denmark Decides to Make It ‘More Attractive to Work’

    Offshore Wind Giant Waves Oil Industry Goodbye

    Two Bankers Are Selling Trump’s Tax Plan. Is Congress Buying?

    Uber’s C.E.O. Pick, Dara Khosrowshahi, Steps Into Brighter Spotlight

    Tim Cook Reaps $89.2 Million Stock Award as Apple Outshines S&P

    Gilead Overspends to Quiet Deal Clamor and Gilead Did Not Pay Too Much For Kite

    German Students Hit 201 MPH in SpaceX Hyperloop Contest

    Ford and Domino’s to Test Appetite for Driverless Pizza

    Freeport-McMoRan to Sell 51% Stake in Grasberg, Wins Permit Extension

    Renault-Nissan Expands Electric Push in China With Dongfeng Pact

    Joshua Brown: You Know Nothing, Jon Snow

    Michael Batnick: I’m Buying Gold

    Roger Nusbaum: Unlucky 7’s

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  • Standing up to Amazon
    Posted by on August 28th, 2017 at 3:02 pm

    Reuters Breakingviews talks about retailers that can withstand the Amazon juggernaut. Ross Stores gets a mention.

    The Amazon vortex won’t suck in everyone. That’s the verdict of investors in the retail sector.

    Among potential competitors to the e-commerce juggernaut founded by Jeff Bezos, some – including Ross Stores, Home Depot and AutoZone – may have the wherewithal to withstand Amazon. The market is conferring on them valuations commensurate with, or better than, the one accorded to Amazon.

    Amazon is already wreaking damage on the shopping landscape. And that will intensify with the completion of its $13.4 billion purchase of Whole Foods this week. Amazon pledged to lower prices and put an end to its reputation as “Whole Paycheck,” crushing shares in competing grocers last week.

    (…)

    Even in apparel, there are bright spots. At 1.4 times projected 2020 sales, Ross Stores, which sells reasonably priced clothing through more than 1,500 outlets, fetches an enterprise valuation close to Amazon’s. TJX Companies, operator of TJ Maxx and Marshalls, lingers at 1.1 times sales. That’s below Amazon but well above peers like Macy’s and Kohl’s. Bargain hunting may offer some respite from online price choppers.

    Once he is done crushing the grocery business, Mr. Bezos may seriously set Amazon’s sights on car parts, cheap clothes and home-improvement accessories. For now, though, the market is betting on a few pockets of calm.

  • The Harvey Effect
    Posted by on August 28th, 2017 at 12:28 pm

    I’m always hesitant to write about the effects of a disaster, natural or manmade, on the financial markets. While it seems improper, we’re in the business of investing, and what these devastated areas often need is more investment.

    Obviously, Harvey has wrecked much of the Houston area and I hope people there are managing the best they can. We often forget how small we are, even in our largest cities, compared to the power of nature.

    Fortunately, the overall market is holding up well. As I write this, the broad market indexes are mostly unchanged. Some home improvement stocks like Lowe’s and Home Depot had decent opens this morning. Many insurance stocks were among the biggest losers today. Still, those moves weren’t that bad (about 2% to 4%). Travelers, which is a Dow component, is currently down about 2.8%.

    On our Buy List, shares of AFLAC (AFL) are actually up a little. If you remember, they handled the Fukushima disaster easily. Continental Building (CBPX) is up 4.5% today.

    Several oil refineries have been shut down so there’s no place for the oil to go besides storage. Crude oil futures are currently down about 3.3% while the “crack spread” has widened to a two-year high. That’s the difference between crude and its refined products.

  • Morning News: August 28, 2017
    Posted by on August 28th, 2017 at 7:05 am

    Central Bankers Shun Policy Clues as Trade Pervades Jackson Hole

    China Is Creating the World’s Largest Power Company/a>

    What Markets Think About the Looming Debt Ceiling Showdown

    Gasoline Soars and Dollar Dented as Tropical Storm Harvey Rages

    Harvey’s Cost Reaches Catastrophe as Modelers See Many Uninsured

    Meet Uber’s New Chief

    GE Shifts Strategy, Financial Targets for Digital Business After Missteps

    Wanda Drops on Reports Wang Jianlin Stopped at Airport

    CBS to Buy Troubled Australian Broadcaster Ten Network

    Danone Sends 5,000 Cows to Siberia in Quest for Cheaper Milk

    Western Digital Group Finalizing $17 Billion Deal for Toshiba Chip Unit

    Bitcoin Investors, Beware: The IRS Is Coming for Your Vast Riches

    Samsung’s Size Could Make It Tough To Keep Its Leader in Prison

    Howard Lindzon: Uber the IPO

    Jeff Miller: What Can be Done to Create More Jobs at Better Pay?

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  • CWS Market Review – August 25, 2017
    Posted by on August 25th, 2017 at 7:08 am

    “The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” – Bernard Baruch

    Mad truth, Bernie. The market does fool-making exceedingly well. Consider the last few months as Wall Street has easily brushed aside concerns about North Korea, President Trump, a weak dollar, the Fed, Tax Reform, you name it–Wall Street’s been as calm as a clam.

    Let’s look at some facts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now gone 85 days in a row without a 1% daily gain. That’s the longest such streak in over a decade. Bear in mind that historically, a 1% up day is about as common as you can get. The S&P 500 still hasn’t had a 3% drawdown since the election. That means that going by each day’s close, the index hasn’t registered a 3% total decline in more than nine months.

    Watching stock prices in 2017 has been….

    Despite the market’s tranquility, there’s still a lot of news. This week, we had three Buy List earnings reports. HEICO raised its full-year guidance, while Hormel and Smucker cut theirs. I’ll have all the details. I’ll also bring you up to speed on some recent Buy List news. But first, let’s review this past earnings season.

    The Weak Dollar Is Boosting Profits

    We don’t have every last number in yet, but we’re very close, and it appears that the S&P 500 had operating earnings of $30.73 for Q2 (that’s the index-adjusted figure). That’s an all-time record. It also represents an increase of 19.6% over last year’s Q2.

    This is very good news because there had been growing concerns that the corporate sector was in danger of a slowdown. Instead, this was the fourth quarter in a row of growing earnings. Before that, the S&P 500 went through a nasty earnings recession that lasted seven quarters. What’s important to understand is that earnings are being helped by expanding profit margins. That’s a good sign. For Q2, operating margins topped 10% for the first time since 2014.

    The second quarter was also notable because earnings estimates weren’t severely slashed before earnings season. You’ll see that a lot. Estimates will plunge low enough for the results to barely claim an “earnings beat.” Lower the bar far enough so you can step over it. It’s true that earnings estimates almost always start out too high, but the results for Q2 were only 4.7% below the estimate from the beginning of the year. That’s pretty good. Right now, the estimates for Q3 are only 2.7% below where they were at the start of the year. The slashing-estimates game seems to have passed.

    So far, 71% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations for Q2. Less than 7% of tech stocks missed on earnings (chart below is rising tech stocks against the slumping dollar). That’s impressive, but the biggest reason for the earnings resurgence is the energy sector. The energy sector went from earning $42.94 per share in 2014 to losing $13.71 in 2015. (Again, these are index-adjusted figures, but in this case, it’s to the S&P 500 Energy Index.) That threw the entire earnings picture for the S&P 500 out of whack. Now energy profits are back, and the overall picture looks much better.

    We’re still not quite two-thirds of the way through 2017, but it looks like the S&P 500 is on pace to make about $125 to $130 per share this year. The S&P 500 is going for about 19 times this year’s earnings and probably about 17 times 2018’s earnings. That’s elevated, but nothing crazy.

    What’s happening is that we’ve gone from a period where the strong dollar was distorting corporate earnings to now where the weak dollar is helping the bottom line. It comes down to this: Europe’s economy is trailing by about three years. All of what Mr. Draghi is doing, and has been doing, comes largely from Mr. Bernanke’s playbook.

    A few years ago, we were growing, and the Europeans were stuck in a rut. As a result, the dollar rallied, and rates in Europe went negative. Now Europe is much better, so the euro is up and the dollar is down. In fact, Draghi is talking about how he wants to exit all that yucky QE and ZIRP stuff. I don’t blame him. If there’s any big news from Jackson Hole this weekend, it’ll probably be from Mario instead of from Janet.

    The key takeaway is that the investing environment continues to be favorable for investors. But remember that the weak U.S. dollar is being a big help for us. Now let’s look at our recent earnings reports.

    This Week’s Buy List Earnings Reports

    We had three Buy List earnings reports this week. Get ready for an earnings lull, because these will be the last ones for a while. RPM International will probably be the next to report sometime in early October. After that, Signature Bank will most likely kick off the Q3 earnings season sometime around October 21.

    After the closing bell on Wednesday, HEICO (HEI) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 53 cents per share. That was in line with Wall Street’s consensus. Because HEICO is a niche player, I like to keep a close eye on their operating margin. It was 19.4% last quarter, which is quite good. Quarterly net sales rose 10% to $391.5 million. In the third quarter of last year, the company earned 49 cents per share.

    Laurans A. Mendelson, HEICO’s Chairman and CEO, commented on the Company’s third quarter and year-to-date results, stating, “HEICO’s operating segments have continued to execute at a high level of profitable performance, and I am very pleased with the record financial results. These outstanding results reflect record net sales and operating income for the first nine months of fiscal 2017 within both the Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group, achieved through increased demand for the majority of our products. Additionally, our subsidiaries continue to deliver strong cash flows in support of our overall corporate strategy of high cash-flow generation.

    Now for the good news: HEICO also raised its guidance for full-year earnings. They previously expected full-year net income growth of 12% to 14%. They now expect net income growth of 14% to 16%.

    Unfortunately, the company doesn’t provide per-share guidance, so we need to bust out some math. Last year, HEICO made $1.86 per share. Shares count is up 1.8% this year, so factoring that in, the new guidance implies $2.08 to $2.12 per share. Since HEICO has already made $1.53 per share through the first three quarters, that implies Q4 earnings of 55 to 59 cents per share.

    Wall Street had been expecting 55 cents for Q4 and $2.09 for the entire year. It seems like it was only last week that HEICO was downgraded by Deutsche Bank. Because it was. The shares jumped 2.8% in Thursday’s trading. I like this company a lot. HEICO remains a buy up to $90 per share.

    On Thursday morning, Hormel Foods (HRL) said they made 34 cents per share for their fiscal Q3 (ending July 31). That was three cents below Wall Street’s estimate. Sales fell 4.4% to $2.2 billion. For comparison, Hormel made 36 cents per share in last year’s Q3.

    So what caused the earnings miss? The major problem is that there’s been a surge in demand for bacon. Normally, that’s a good thing, but Hormel hasn’t been able to catch up with the cost change. Their CEO said that since April, pork belly prices have doubled. Hormel said they probably will not be able to raise prices until October. As a result, the company’s profit margins got squeezed hard last quarter.

    That’s not all. Hormel also had a poor quarter from their Muscle Milk unit, which they’ve spent heavily on. Plus, their turkey unit continues to see poor sales. The silver lining is that Hormel’s grocery-store biz, with brands like Skippy Peanut Butter, is doing well.

    This was a frustrating quarter for Hormel, but these are solvable issues. With an earnings miss, it’s important to dissect the problems. Are they transitory, or do they go to the heart of the company’s business model? With Hormel’s quarter, it’s more about the environment.

    Hormel has also been busy on the M&A front. Last week, the company announced the acquisition of Fontanini Italian Meats and Sausages. This week, they spent $104 million to buy Cidade do Sol, a Brazilian meat company.

    Now for guidance. Hormel is lowering its full-year guidance range to $1.54 to $1.58 per share from the previous range of $1.65 to $1.71 per share. For the first three quarters, Hormel made $1.17 per share, so their guidance means a Q4 range of 37 to 41 cents per share. Wall Street had been expecting 46 cents per share.

    This is tough news. The shares dropped 5.4% on Thursday and touched a new 52-week low. In 2015, Hormel could do no wrong. Now they seemingly can do no right. I want to see some improvement here before I feel confident about Hormel.

    Also on Thursday morning, JM Smucker (SJM) said they made $1.51 per share for their fiscal Q1. That was ten cents below estimates. Quarterly revenue fell 3.7% to $1.749 billion.

    The main culprit was SJM’s Folger’s coffee unit. Sales at Folger dropped by 8%, while operating profits plunged 29%. The company raised coffee prices earlier this year but then lowered them in July. Smucker’s biggest business, which is pet food, had a sluggish quarter. Sales rose by just 0.5%.

    “While our first quarter results fell slightly short of our projections, primarily driven by lower than anticipated volume for Folgers® roast and ground coffee, we have taken actions to improve our competitive positioning for Folgers®. As a result, volume trends are improving. In addition, we remain pleased with the performance of the remainder of our coffee portfolio and look forward to the launch of new coffee products later this fiscal year,” said Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer. “We are also pleased with the progress on our cost-management programs, as we continue to deliver on our synergy and cost-savings targets. Across all our businesses, we are executing on our strategic plan that provides a clear path to sustainable, long-term growth by delivering on current consumer and retail trends.”

    Smucker also lowered its full-year forecast. The initial guidance was for $7.85 to $8.05 per share. Now Smucker sees FY 2018 earnings of $7.75 to $7.95 per share. Bear in mind that that’s a decrease of about 1% at either end.

    Shares of SJM dropped 9.5% on Thursday. This was a very disappointing quarter for Smucker, but the selloff gives them a decent valuation, especially if the new guidance is accurate. I feel better about SJM’s earnings than I do about Hormel’s. This week, I’m lowering my Buy Below on Smucker to $118 per share.

    Buy List Updates

    I have a few quick updates for some of our Buy List stocks.

    On Wednesday, Stryker (SYK) said that it’s doing a voluntary recall of “specific lots of Oral Care products sold through the company`s Sage Products business unit.” The problem seems to have come from a third-party provider. Fortunately, Stryker said that it’s not aware of any serious adverse effects.

    Earlier, Stryker gave full-year guidance of $6.45 to $6.55 per share. Now the company expects to come in at the low end of that range. For Q3, Stryker expects to be at the low end of the previously-announced range of $1.50 to $1.55 per share.

    This is disappointing news, but it’s hardly enough to shake my confidence in Stryker.

    I also wanted to follow up on Ross Stores (ROST). The deep discounter had a very good earnings report last week, but I wasn’t able to see the market’s reaction until after I sent you the newsletter. On Friday, shares of ROST jumped 10.7%. Yesterday, the shares broke above $60 for the first time in two months. Our patience is being rewarded. Ross is a buy up to $61 per share.

    Three weeks ago, Cinemark (CNK) reported earnings of 44 cents per share. The market initially reacted favorably, but then it changed its mind. CNK has been trending lower ever since. At one point, shares of CNK fell eight times in nine days. Frankly, I should have lowered our Buy Below earlier, but I’ll do it this week. Cinemark is now a buy up to $36 per share.

    That’s all for now. Next week is the final week of trading before the Labor Day holiday. On Wednesday, the government will revise the Q2 GDP figure. The initial report showed growth of 2.6%. On Friday, the Labor Department will release the August labor report just ahead of the Labor Day weekend. I’ll try not to belabor the point. The last report showed unemployment at 4.3%, which tied a 16-year low. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • Morning News: August 25, 2017
    Posted by on August 25th, 2017 at 7:06 am

    Draghi Has Reason to Temper the Drama in Jackson Hole Sequel

    Wall Street Banks Are Sending Warning Signals

    Samsung Heir Gets 5 Years for Scandal That Toppled a President

    Samsung’s Next Chief Hides in Plain Sight

    Amazon’s Price Cuts on Food Leave Rivals Bracing for Impact

    Qantas Hands Investors More Cash as Profit Beats Estimates

    The World’s Longest Flight Is Coming

    Challenges Ahead as Nilekani Takes on Second Innings at Infosys

    Apple Gets $208 Million in Tax Breaks to Build Iowa Data Center

    SoftBank and Fund to Invest $4.4 Billion in WeWork

    Disney, Ditching Netflix, Grabs a New Key To The Kingdom

    Russian Tanker Completes Arctic Passage Without Aid of Icebreakers

    Without Insurance, Some Vendors Balk at Stocking Sears’ Shelves

    Ben Carlson: When To Sell Your Investments

    Jeff Carter: Some Common Sense Economics

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Earnings from Hormel and Smucker
    Posted by on August 24th, 2017 at 11:17 am

    This morning, we got two more Buy List earnings report. These will be the last reports for quite some time.

    Hormel Foods (HRL) said they made 34 cents per share for their fiscal Q3 (ending July 31). That was three cents below Wall Street’s estimate. Sales fell 4.4% to $2.2 billion. For comparison, Hormel made 36 cents per share in last year’s Q3.

    So what caused the earnings miss? The major problem is that there’s been a surge in demand for bacon. Normally, that’s a good thing, but Hormel hasn’t been able to catch up with the cost change. Their CEO said that since April, pork belly prices have doubled. Hormel said they probably will not be able to raise prices until October. As a result, the company’s profit margins got squeezed last quarter.

    Hormel also had a poor quarter from their Muscle Milk unit which they’ve spent heavily on. Plus, their turkey unit continues to see poor sales. The good news is that Hormel’s grocery store biz, including items like Skippy Peanut Butter, is doing well.

    Hormel has also been busy on the M&A front. Last week, the company announced the acquisition of Fontanini Italian Meats and Sausages. This week, they spent $104 million to buy Cidade do Sol, a Brazilian meat company.

    Now for guidance. Hormel is lowering their full-year guidance range to $1.54 to $1.58 per share, from the previous range of $1.65 to $1.71 per share. For the first three quarters, Hormel has made $1.17 per share so their guidance means a Q4 range of 37 to 41 cents per share. Wall Street had been expecting 46 cents per share. The shares are currently down 6.6% today.

    For their fiscal Q1, JM Smucker (SJM) earned $1.51 per share. That was ten cents below estimates.

    The main culprit was SJM’s Folger’s coffee unit. Sales at Folger dropped by 8% while operating profits plunged 29%. The company raised coffee prices earlier this year but then lowered them in July. Smucker’s biggest business, which is pet food, had a sluggish quarter. Sales rose by just 0.5%.

    “While our first quarter results fell slightly short of our projections, primarily driven by lower than anticipated volume for Folgers® roast and ground coffee, we have taken actions to improve our competitive positioning for Folgers®. As a result, volume trends are improving. In addition, we remain pleased with the performance of the remainder of our coffee portfolio and look forward to the launch of new coffee products later this fiscal year,” said Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer. “We are also pleased with the progress on our cost management programs, as we continue to deliver on our synergy and cost savings targets. Across all our businesses, we are executing on our strategic plan that provides a clear path to sustainable, long-term growth by delivering on current consumer and retail trends.”

    Smucker also lowered their full-year forecast. The initial guidance was for $7.85 to $8.05 per share. Now Smucker sees FY 2018 earnings of $7.75 to $7.95 per share.