Morning News: December 16, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 16th, 2024 at 7:04 am

China Will Keep Trying to Spur Consumption Without Big Stimulus

Vietnam Won Big in Donald Trump’s First Trade War. Now, It’s a Target.

Germany Is Unraveling Just When Europe Needs It Most

ECB Set to Lower Key Rate Further as Protectionism Threatens, Says Lagarde

Sterling Rises After U.K. PMI Data

How ‘Economic Statecraft’ Evolved Into a Tool of US Foreign Policy

Powell’s Fed Appears Headed for Another Collision With Trump

The Fed Faces an Important Choice After This Rate Cut

Inflation Is Coming Down, But Prices Won’t Stand Still in 2025

Wall Street Eyes 2025 Volatility Spikes on Trump Tariffs, Geopolitics

Mega Deals Won’t Lead M&A Rebound Under Trump

Private Credit Wants a Top Spot on Your Mobile Investing App

How Your Spending Changes After Your Political Party Wins

The Biden Overtime Rule Was Struck Down. Now, Some Workers Are Losing Pay Raises

Insurance Startup Stand Has a Plan to Cover ‘Uninsurable’ Homes

Shell, Partners to Invest $5 Billion in Nigeria’s Deep-Water Oil

UK and Norway Look to Carbon Pipeline Deal as Starmer Visits

How Can the World Move Beyond Combustion Cars? Look to Norway

Automakers Thrived in the Pandemic. Many Are Now Struggling.

The Federal EV Tax Credit Has an Uncertain Fate. What Car Shoppers Should Know

A Ride-Hailing Start-Up in Washington Tries to ‘Out-Uber Uber’

Another Pandemic Is Inevitable, and We’re Not Ready

Skydance Deal Sparks Studio Protest Over Paramount Chair Payout

Alibaba Said to Near $1 Billion Intime Sale to Youngor Fashion

Amazon Disregarded Internal Warnings on Injuries, Senate Investigation Claims

Cruise Lines Are Basking in Holiday Cheer

Four Years Later, CrossFit’s Disgraced Guru Attempts a Comeback

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Morning News: December 13, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 13th, 2024 at 7:03 am

The Global Fertility Trade: A Story of Extraction, Exploitation and Opportunity

China’s ‘Lower for Longer’ Pledge Has Sent Bonds Into Unknown

Trafigura Profit Drops 62% After ‘Massive Problem’ in Mongolia

European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates as the Economy Weakens

Bundesbank Cuts German Growth Forecasts, Warning of Escalating Protectionism

Germany’s Goods Surplus Shrinks as Trade Uncertainty Mounts

U.K. Economy Weakens Again in Blow to Government’s Growth Plans

The Fed Can’t Ignore All of Trump’s Intentions

The World According to Trump Is Already Here

Trump’s Tax Cuts May Fail to Drive Much, If Any, Economic Boost

When It Comes to Grocery Prices, Trump Suddenly Changes His Tune

US Regulator’s ‘Problem Bank’ List Grows as Industry Profits Dip

Crypto Ads Crackle in a Trump-Energized Landscape

Can Crypto Bros Save Luxury in 2025?

Cantor Fitzgerald Pays $6.75 Million to Settle SEC Charges Over Misleading SPAC Disclosures

What Is Venture Capital Now Anyway?

Robinhood Plays the Long Game by Betting on the Kids

Dollar Stores Are Flashing a Warning Sign About Lower-Income Consumers

Turkey’s Aydem Group Plans 2025 IPOs for Power Grid Operators

Pizza Buffets, Fishing Boats and Bathroom Lines Are All Getting an AI Makeover. Thank One Man.

AI Wants More Data. More Chips. More Real Estate. More Power. More Water. More Everything

Broadcom Shares Jump After Chipmaker Predicts AI Sales Surge

Qatar Air Seeks to Drop Boeing 737s After Making Up With Airbus

Media Moguls Set the Stage for Deal Mania

YouTube TV Raises Monthly Charge 14 Percent, to $82.99

Super-Spicy Noodles Make Former Stay-at-Home Mom a Billionaire

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Morning News: December 12, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 12th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Germany Faces Tepid Growth Without Policy Changes, Ifo Says

Musk and Milei Belong to the Same Cult of Disruption

In Milei’s Argentina, Economic Albatross Is Tamed but Life Is Much Harder

China Signals More Fiscal Stimulus, Rate Cuts to Lift Growth

China’s Lust for Gold Exploited by Scammers, Money Launderers

Trump Extended Xi Longshot Invitation to Inauguration, CBS Says

Market-Moving Data Under Threat as Trump Returns to Washington

Economists Are Wrong a Lot But Not About Tariffs

Government Statistics Come Under Siege From All Corners

Inflation Took a Licking. Why’s It Still Ticking?

Inflation Is Stuck. Can Trump Unstick It?

Investors Shouldn’t Count on Much Help From the Fed Next Year

Neutral-Rate Guessing Game Comes With High Stakes in Bond Market

Blackstone Deal Shows Funds Wooing Insurers Still Works

Blackstone to Buy Tokyo Office Complex for $2.6 Billion

New Federal Rule Limits Overdraft Fees at Large Banks

Police Investigate NYC ‘Wanted’ Posters of Finance Executives

The C.E.O.s Are Tripping. Can Psychedelics Help the C-Suite?

The 25 Richest Families in the World – 2024

Nvidia Steps Up Hiring in China to Focus on AI-Driven Cars

Tencent’s Latest Hit Game Took a Decade of Community Building

What Is the Hershey Trust and Why Can It Block Takeover Deals?

Failure of Kroger-Albertsons Merger May Curb Grocers’ Advertising Ambitions

Doctors Say Dealing With Health Insurers Is Only Getting Worse

Bausch + Lomb Confirms It Is Exploring a Potential Sale

Carlyle Pauses Luxury Bets After Making a Killing on Golden Goose

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Morning News: December 11, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 11th, 2024 at 7:02 am

College Graduates Are Turning on Milei After Helping Him Win Power

Powerful Families Who Dominate South Korea Face an Investor Revolt

Oman Sticks to Green Hydrogen Ambition Despite Industry Setbacks

Exxon Raises Capital Spending as Worldwide Oil Glut Looms

Exxon Plans to Sell Electricity to Data Centers

US Considers New Russia Oil Sanctions to Weaken Putin Ahead of Trump

Trump’s Return Gives China a Shot at Being the Next Weather Superpower

Xi Readies Bargaining Chips for US Trade War

China Gears Up for US Trade Fight by Showcasing New Tools

The F.T.C.’s Next, More Deal-Friendly Leader

Trump’s Nominees Are Testing the GOP’s Guardrails

Trump’s Pick to Run NASA Is a SpaceX Fan and Funder

US Inflation Data to Show Fourth Consecutive Month of Firm Gains

Bond Investors Await Inflation Data That Could Sway Fed Choice

Wall Street’s Titans Can’t Wait for Trump 2.0

Does Bitcoin at $100,000 Signal a Last Laugh for HODLers?

Hedge-Fund Startups Dwindle as Managers Battle Pressure on Fees

BlackRock’s Private Markets Push May Not Be Over After 2024 Buyout Spree

You’ll Take Private Assets, and Like It

Houthi Attacks Turn Back the Clock for Shipping as Costs Pile Up

50 Companies to Watch in 2025

Lawmakers Plot to Force Health Insurers to Sell Off Pharmacies

Anger at CEOs Goes Beyond the Healthcare Industry. Here’s Why.

For Tesla Owners, a Referendum Through Bumper Stickers

Vodafone Deal May Be Harbinger of Less Resistance to Big Mergers

Opioids Ravaged a Kentucky Town. Then Rehab Became Its Business.

Patterson Cos to Be Acquired by Patient Square in $4.1 Billion Deal

Kroger, Albertsons Could Turn to Ad Business as Deal Termination Looms, Analysts Say

Macy’s Shares Fall After Profit Hit by Accounting Error

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CWS Market Review – December 10, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 10th, 2024 at 5:39 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Before I get to today’s issue, I have a quick announcement.

Be sure to circle December 25 on your calendar. That will be a very special day this year. That’s when I’ll email you the Buy List for 2025.

This will be our 20th annual Buy List. In honor of the new Buy List, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed on December 25. I want to thank the exchange for the recognition.

As usual, our Buy List will have 25 stocks. We will add five names and delete five names. All the stocks will be equally weighted at the beginning of the year. The New Buy List will go into effect at the start of trading on January 2 which will be the first day of trading in 2025.

Mondelez Is Looking to buy Hershey, Again

Speaking of our Buy List, we had exciting news this week. Bloomberg reported that Mondelez (MDLZ) is interested in buying Hershey (HSY).

This isn’t the first time that Mondelez has looked into buying Hershey. In 2016, they looked into it but Hershey wasn’t interested.

To be clear, there’s no deal on the table, and Bloomberg said, there’s “no certainty that discussions will lead to a deal.”

If these two got together, it would be a huge deal. Mondelez already owns Oreo and Cadbury. A deal like this does make sense. The fact is that consumers are becoming more health conscious. Recently, Mars bought Kellanova for close to $30 billion.

I can see what Mondelez is thinking, and it makes sense. Buying Hershey would give a big life to Mondelez’s presence in the North American market. Mondelez only gets 31% of its sales from North America compared to 93% for Hershey.

Shares of HSY have not done well this year. The global cocoa crop had a very poor year and Hershey’s stock felt it. A few weeks ago, the chocolatier cut its sales and earnings forecast. Cocoa prices are still quite high. In a separate report, Hershey said that the head of its confectionary business will leave after three months on the job.

One important issue with buying Hershey is the Hershey Trust. The trust owns almost all the “B” shares of HSY, so any deal needs its approval. Historically, the trust has been opposed to any deal. This time could be different.

Even though no deal has been announced, the stock market has been having a grand time with shares of HSY. At one point, HSY was up 19% in Monday’s trading.

At the end of the day, HSY closed higher by $18.95 per share or 10.85%. That gave Hershey a market value of about $39 billion while shares of Mondelez fell a bit, and Mondelez has a market value of $82 billion.

What would be interesting is that if the Hershey Trust is open to the idea of a sale, perhaps other players would jump in. In fact, you could even see a bidding war for Hershey break out. I’m sure the folks at Nestlé will be watching what happens.

The Jobs Market Is Still Doing Well

On Friday, the government reported that the U.S. economy created 227,000 net new jobs last month. That’s quite good. Wall Street had been expecting a gain of 214,000. Also, the anemic number for October was revised higher by 36,000. The storms down south and the Boeing strike impacted the original report. The number for September was also revised higher.

As expected, the unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1% to 4.2%. The unemployment rate has now been below 4.3% for the last 37 months in a row. In April 2020, the unemployment rate peaked at 14.9%.

Job gains were focused in health care (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and government (33,000), sectors that have consistently led payroll growth for the past few years. Social assistance added 19,000 to the total.

At the same time, retail trade saw a decline of 28,000 heading into the holiday season. With Thanksgiving coming later than usual this year, some stores may have held off hiring.

The broader U-6 rate increased to 7.8%. Also, the labor force participation rate dropped 0.1% to 62.5%. That number is often misinterpreted on social media. In reality, the labor force participation rate is strongly influenced by demographic trends. It’s not a good barometer for the overall health of the economy.

One concerning statistic in the jobs report is that the number of full-time jobs fell by 111,000 while part-time jobs dropped by 268,000. For black workers, the unemployment rate increased by 0.7% to 6.4%.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% for the second month in a row. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4%.

The next big report comes tomorrow morning when the CPI report for November is released. It appears that the improvements to inflation have crawled to a halt. We’ll learn more tomorrow. Wall Street expects to see a gain of 0.3% for both the core and headline rate on inflation. It appears that it was quite easy to bring inflation down from 9% to 4%, but getting it from 4% to 2% is proving to be very difficult.

The Federal Reserve meets next week, and it’s very likely that the Fed will again lower interest rates by 0.25%. This will be the Fed’s third rate cut over the last three months, and it will bring the Fed’s target range for the Fed funds rate to 4.25% to 4.50%.

After that, it looks like the Fed may pause on any rate cuts at its January meeting. Traders see the Fed cutting twice more in the first half of 2025, but after June, they don’t expect any more cutting. If that’s the case, then the market may not be so hot next year. There are few things Wall Street likes more than falling interest rates.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: December 10, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 10th, 2024 at 7:03 am

EU’s New Competition Chief Plans Policy Overhaul

China Exports Growth Slows Unexpectedly, Imports Drop Further

Beijing Shifts Stance on Economy, but Words Alone Won’t Be Enough

China Economists Ramp Up Expectations for Rate Cuts, Spending

Inflation Switcheroo Rings Out the Election Year

At ‘Tax Prom,’ Washington Prepares for More Tax Cuts

Trump’s Manufacturing Revival Doesn’t Add Up for These Businesses

‘We’re Absolutely in Panic Mode’: Toymakers are Bracing for Trump’s Tariffs

Worried About Stocks? $1 Trillion in Buybacks Will Help

Private Credit Should Trade at Premium, Franklin’s Johnson Says

Chasing ‘Dumb Money’: Hedge Funds Target Mere Mini-Millionaires

Man Group Eyes Acquisitions, Sees ‘Cracking’ Credit Opportunity

How Crypto Insiders Turned ‘Debanking’ Into a Political Storm

Jane Fraser Stares Down Skeptics Ahead of Citi’s Critical Year

Early Adopters Are Ditching Google Search for AI Chatbots

Nvidia Is Now Too Powerful for Beijing to Constrain

Samsung Beats Apple to Making a Smart Ring, With Flaws

The National Security Angle With TikTok Is Bogus. This Is Industrial Policy

A Phone Company Developed an AI ‘Granny’ to Beat Scammers at Their Own Game

Rupert Murdoch Fails in Bid to Change Family Trust

Volkswagen and Labor Leaders to Meet Next Week as Latest Talks End Without Agreement

Stellantis, CATL to Invest $4.33 Billion in EV Battery Plant in Spain

Global Airlines Expect Record Passengers Flows in 2025

Hershey Shareholders Shouldn’t Count on a Mondelez Jackpot

Why the Saudis Want a Second World Cup in the Gulf

Coldplay’s Sold-Out Concerts Show Live Entertainment Is Thriving

Designer Brands Cuts 2024 Outlook as Third Quarter Sales Fall

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Morning News: December 9, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 9th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Assad’s Fall After 24-Year Rule Creates Power Vacuum in Middle East

Assad’s Fall Shows Russia, Iran and Hamas Made a Bad Bet

Putin’s Syria Setback Threatens Key Russian Military Bases

Russia’s Military Found a Surprisingly Simple Way to Buy US Chips

Ukraine Asks if Telegram, Its Favorite App, Is a Sleeper Agent

China Targets Nvidia For Potential Breach of Monopoly Law

Commerce Dept. Is on the Front Lines of China Policy

China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returns

India’s Luxury Property Market Is a Boon to Trump’s Business

Trump Won’t Be Able to Save the Struggling US Beef Industry

ESG Is in Its Flop Era

BP, Japan’s JERA to Create Offshore Wind JV

Blackstone’s Data-Center Ambitions School a City on AI Power Strains

OpenAI Tests Limits of AI Enthusiasm With $200 ChatGPT Plan

Mexico Inflation Slows Under Forecast With Interest Rate Cut in Play

Chinese Carmakers Are Taking Mexico by Storm While Eyeing U.S.

Strong Momentum Makes It Hard to Bet Against ‘Freight Train’ US Stock Rally

Dollar Optimism Is Spreading From Hedge Funds to Asset Managers

Modern Monetary Theory Is A Left-Wing Variant Of The Austrian School

“Creating a Parallel State”: Elon and Vivek Hope to Test Presidential and Private Powers

Why Tariffs Could Really Pinch Retailers This Time

The US Can’t Manufacture Its Way to a Thriving Middle Class

Massive Wealth Transfer Will Give Women $34 Trillion by 2030

The Girl Economy Is Going Strong — Despite the Manosphere

Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour Grand Total: A Record $2 Billion

Insiders Tell How IT Giant Favored Indian H-1B Workers Over US Employees

Omnicom to Acquire Interpublic in Deal That Will Reshape Advertising Industry

Arthur J. Gallagher to Acquire AssuredPartners for $13.45 Billion

Steve Cohen Spends $1.6 Billion on Mets Payroll With Soto Bet

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Morning News: December 6, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 6th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Political Turmoil Adds to South Korea’s Economic Woes

German Industrial Production Retreated in October, With Threats Mounting

Never Before Have So Many Sailors Been Abandoned at Sea

Losing This Tiny Island Would Be a Huge Problem for the US Navy

India’s Central Bank Holds Rates Again

Investment Banks Eye 2025 Income Boom as Trump Drives Deal Rebound

Botswana Faces Worst Downturn Since 2020 as Diamond Sales Slump

Gold Rebounds as Traders Await U.S. Jobs Data

US Jobs Report to Show Hiring Rebounded After Storms and Strike

For Those in Need of a Job, Landing One Might Still Be a Challenge

Bond Traders Leaning on Fed Rate Cuts Eye Payrolls for Clues

Wall Street’s Bond Sellers Look Toward Bigger 2024 Bonus Rewards

Everybody Loves FRED: How America Fell for a Data Tool

The World’s Richest Man Is Now America’s Biggest Political Donor

He Promised Huge Tax Refunds. Now Trump Wants Him to Lead the I.R.S.

Asness’ AI Twin Heralds End of Human Fund Managers

BlackRock’s Big Bet on GIP Puts Fink’s Firm in Local Spotlight

Is TikTok Getting Banned? What Trump’s Election Means for Its Fate

LG Electronics Is Latest to Test India’s Roaring IPO Market

Auto Production Tumbles in Canada Before Trump’s Return as Detroit Pulls Back

Americans’ Cars Keep Getting Older—and Creakier

UnitedHealth Shooting Dredges Up Deep Enmity at Health Insurers

The ‘Chilling’ Fatal Shooting of a C.E.O. Has Business Leaders on Edge

The Growing Cost of Making C.E.O.s Safe

The Quest to Turn Human Waste Into Medicine

Federal Judge Rejects Boeing’s Guilty Plea Related to 737 Max Crashes

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Morning News: December 5, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 5th, 2024 at 7:05 am

Ukraine’s Top Diplomat Rules Out Territorial Compromise

Le Pen Takes France and Europe Into the Unknown

Macron’s Grand Project in Ruins After French Government Falls

German Factory Orders Drop on Car Industry Struggles

Eurozone Retail Trade Declines as Political Worries Mount

The UN Is Failing to Save the World. Here’s What Might.

OPEC+ Delays Revival of Its Oil Production by Three Months

A Winter Weather Puzzle Is Raising the Risk of Meteoric Energy Inflation

The Quest to Make Clean Energy Cleaner

Biden Clears Path for Trump’s Push to Crack Down on Immigration

How Trump Is Rethinking Economic Power

Trump Picks Paul Atkins to Run the S.E.C.

Trump Taps Fiserv CEO Bisignano for Social Security Chief

Trump Picks Ex-Congressman Who Hawked Tax Credits to Lead I.R.S.

Trump Selects Kelly Loeffler, a Top Donor, to Head the Small Business Administration

Bitcoin Soars Past $100,000 on Trump’s Pro-Crypto Pick for SEC

Crypto Leads a Buying Frenzy for All Kinds of Risk

Dubai’s Alleged Crypto Scams Are Raking in Billions

The NFT Is Dead. Long Live the NFT?

How Citi Lost $17 Million on Massive Australia Block Trade

TD Misses on Weak US Performance, Suspends Its Growth Guidance

A $105 Trillion Inheritance Windfall Is On the Way for US Heirs

$8 Billion for Intel Won’t Fix America’s Chip Problem

Nvidia Agrees to Open Vietnam AI Center in Southeast Asia Push

How One of the World’s Richest Men Is Avoiding $8 Billion in Taxes

How Tariffs Threaten an American Manufacturer’s Big Investment in Mexico

Interpublic Group Buys Retail Analytics Company in Deal Valued at Nearly $100 Million

Campbell’s New Chief Inherits Strengthened Business, but Big Challenges Loom

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Morning News: December 4, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 4th, 2024 at 7:04 am

World Economy to Accelerate in 2025, But Recovery Threatened by Higher Tariffs, OECD Says

South Korea Shaken by Martial Law Disaster

What’s Behind South Korea’s Martial Law Chaos and Why It Matters

Martial Law Didn’t Silence South Korea’s Media. It Empowered Them.

South Korean Turmoil Strikes at Heart of US Alliances in Asia

How a Country’s Economy Was Siphoned Dry

The Tragedy of Merkelism in a Time of Trump and Putin

Why Donald Trump and Javier Milei Are Worlds Apart on Austerity

US Ports ‘Must Evolve,’ Employers Tell Dockworkers

The Oxford Curriculum That American Universities Need

It’s Taking Longer to Find a New Job in the US

America’s Role Reversal: Working-Class Blacks Make Gains While Whites Fall Back

The Quiet Rise of Lightly Regulated Home Insurance

BlackRock Jumps Deeper Into the Private Markets

Barclays Reaches $19.5 Million Settlement Over Debt Sale Blunder

Europe’s Newest Startup Trend: Making AI-Powered Weapons

Saudi Arabia Is Losing Its Iron Grip on Global Oil Markets

Who Will Clean Up Shell’s Mess in Nigeria?

Robots Are Fueling the Next Wave of Solar Farm Development

The Furious Contest to Unseat Nvidia as King of A.I. Chips

GM Sees $5 Billion Hit to Restructure Troubled China Business

Volkswagen Boss Warns Staff Urgent Measures Needed to Save Company

JetBlue Lifts Fourth-Quarter Goal on Better Bookings, Seat Fees

Lilly’s Zepbound Beats Novo’s Wegovy in Head-to-Head Trial

Seven & i $60 Billion Management Buyout to Include US Assets IPO

Dollar Tree Sales Growth Signals Recovery in Demand

The Midwestern Roots, and Woods, of N.B.A. Courts

Foot Locker Lowers FY24 Outlook After 3Q Misses Estimates Amid Soft Demand, Higher Promos

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